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NASCAR Race Day Betting Card for Pocono Saturday

By
Jordan McAbee
-
Denny Hamlin celebrating win at Pocono 2020
Photo Credit: Patrick Smith | Getty Images

It’s doubleheader weekend at Pocono so that means there are two races to bet on and likely two drivers that will get hit with the dreaded #JordanJinx. There was a stretch there where the jinx wasn’t too damning, but over the last two weeks it’s hit drivers hard, including Martin Truex, Jr. at Nashville last week. For Saturday’s race at Pocono, Kyle Larson is on the pole and is also the heavy favorite (once again) to win the race according to Vegas odds. A lot can happen at Pocono, though, with all of the strategies playing out, so we’ll have to see what that #5 team plans to do on race day.

Pocono Saturday Race Day Betting Card

#JordanJinx

Denny Hamlin to Win (+800) – It just feels right this weekend. With the launch of the brand new Stacking Dennys podcast, plus the fact that Pocono is one of Hamlin’s best tracks, getting him at 8-to-1 odds is a very solid value–especially when my algorithm predicts the #11 Toyota will be in victory lane on Sunday. This weekend, especially Saturday’s race, will be a very good test of whether something really is wrong with Joe Gibbs Racing right now, as they have been incredible over the recent years at Pocono raceway. Hamlin has finished 1st, 2nd, and 1st in the last three races here, and although he still has zero wins in 2021, you have to think he has a good chance to break the drought this weekend–if he can overcome the #JordanJinx.

Parlay of the Weekend

William Byron Top 5 Finish at Pocono Saturday PLUS Martin Truex, Jr. To Finish Top 4 in Championship (+532) – I’ve already hammered Martin Truex, Jr. for the championship win, as well as solo bets for him to finish in the top 4, so why not do a little parlay this weekend? Byron is +130 for a top 5 finish on Saturday and Truex is +175 to make the Phoenix race in the Playoffs. Byron has been good here at Pocono already–four top 10s in the last five races, and a worst finish of 14th–and now he’s running better than he ever has. He also starts 2nd on Saturday at a track where track position is important, and having track position gives you plenty of flexibility to make different strategy moves.

Rest of the Card

William Byron Top 5 Finish (+130) – See notes above. If I’m betting it in a parlay, I’m also betting it by itself.

Ross Chastain Top 10 Finish (+225) – Another shameless plug for the Stacking Dennys podcast here. RotoDoc and I talked extensively about Ross Chastain and his underdog ability this weekend at Pocono, with it not only being a great track for him in his racing career, but also the fact that this #42 team is really clicking off good finishes right now. Additionally, Matt Kenseth finished 11th and 12th here at Pocono in this same car last season, and even came home 2nd at Indianapolis, which is (well, now “was”) the most similar track to “The Tricky Triangle” on the schedule.

Christopher Bell Top 3 Finish (+1100) – Just a #SaltBae sprinkle here with this bet, nothing major. Joe Gibbs Racing has been so good here at Pocono recently, that it’s hard to not like Christopher Bell this weekend. Even Erik Jones was able to be a consistent top 5 contender here at Pocono in this #20 Toyota, and wound up inside the top 3 in three of the last four races at this track (with the exception being the first race last year, which he wrecked out of). As far as Bell goes, he finished 4th in the first race here last season while with Leavine Family Racing, and also came home 12th at Indianapolis last July (despite starting 36th and 35th in those races, respectively). He’ll start 9th here at Pocono on Sunday.

Joey Logano over Brad Keselowski (+100) – Just kind of trusting my algorithm here for an even-money bet on an underdog in this H2H matchup. The algorithm has Logano predicted to finish 6th and Keselowski predicted to finish 10th on Saturday, and even though Kez has a better recent track record than Joey here at Pocono, it seems as though the #2 Ford is struggling more than the other Fords in the Penske camp right now. Is that because BK is on his way out the door and they’re giving him junk equipment? Maybe. RotoDoc and I talked about that on this week’s episode of Stacking Dennys. Keselowski has finishes of 11th, 9th, and 8th here at Pocono lately while Logano has ended up 24th, 36th, and 13th. However, the #22 Ford has finished inside the top 3 in five of the last eight Stages here, and has better track position to start the race on Saturday as well (4th compared to 18th).

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Pocono Saturday NASCAR Algorithm Predicted Finishing Order

By
Jordan McAbee
-
Ryan Blaney and Aric Almirola leading Pocono field 2020
Photo Credit: Patrick Smith | Getty Images

The NASCAR Cup Series is pulling double duty this weekend at Pocono Raceway with TWO races at “The Tricky Triangle,” one on Saturday and one on Sunday. The first race will be 325 miles in length (130 laps) while Sunday’s event will be 350 miles in length (140 laps). For those doing the math, that means Pocono is a 2.5-mile track. Unfortunately, we don’t have a lot of relevant data from this season to work with this weekend, as the closest track to Pocono is Indianapolis, and the Cup Series is not racing at that big oval anymore. To contend at “The Tricky Triangle,” a car needs to have a very strong engine, and over the last few years here, Joe Gibbs Racing and Stewart-Haas have been the top teams at Pocono. Will that continue this weekend, or will their slump continue?

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How the algorithm works: There are quite a few statistics that go into the Power Index formula, including recent performance both overall and at this week’s track specifically, similar track performance, projected strength of the car, practice speeds (when applicable), starting position, and a few other variables.

Before We Get To The Algorithm Results…Thoughts On A Couple Drivers

Ross Chastain Clover paint scheme Nashville Superspeedway 2021
Photo Credit: Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images

Kevin Harvick – With the top 3 drivers in the algorithm this weekend, it basically says you can throw a blanket over them because they’re that close in the power index–and you can maybe even add William Byron into that mix. But of those four drivers, you have to think Kevin Harvick is the least stable. Yes, we saw Stewart-Haas run really well at Nashville last weekend, but one good race *with practice* doesn’t mean an organization has turned things around. Harvick’s record here at Pocono is impeccable, though, so it certainly wouldn’t be surprising if he challenged for the win; in addition to finishing 1st and 2nd in the two races here last year, “Happy” has finished 4th or better in seven of the last nine races at “The Tricky Triangle,” with the only exception finishes being a 6th and a 22nd.

Ross Chastain– The algorithm has Ross Chastain predicted to finish 20th here on Saturday, but there is so much more potential there. RotoDoc and I talked about Chastain extensively in our brand new podcast, Stacking Dennys, this week, so make sure you listen to that (click here). But here’s a few reasons to like Chastain this weekend: this #42 team is running really well. In addition to the 2nd-place finish at Nashville last weekend, Chastain has a 7th (Sonoma) and a 4th (COTA) in the last month, and has ended up 16th or better in eight of the last nine points-paying Cup races. As far as track history here at Pocono, Ross has been in garbage cars for all four of his Cup Series starts here–part of the reason why the algorithm is down on him–but he did run 24th and 28th in those Premium Motorsports Chevys, which is quite a bit better than normal for that car. In the Xfinity Series, Chastain finished 2nd at Pocono last season, and in the Truck Series, he’s finished 6th and 1st in his last two starts at this track.

Pocono Organics CBD 325 (Saturday) Algorithm Predicted Finishing Order

RankDriverPower
Index
1.Hamlin, Denny38.82
2.Larson, Kyle38.33
3.Harvick, Kevin38.24
4.Byron, William37.45
5.Busch, Kyle36.98
6.Logano, Joey33.96
7.Bowman, Alex33.15
8.Elliott, Chase30.82
9.Truex, Jr., Martin30.63
10.Keselowski, Brad27.46
11.Busch, Kurt25.15
12.Blaney, Ryan25.12
13.Dillon, Austin22.22
14.Bell, Christopher19.84
15.DiBenedetto, Matt16.84
16.Reddick, Tyler14.79
17.Jones, Erik12.97
18.Buescher, Chris12.07
19.Almirola, Aric08.81
20.Chastain, Ross06.60
21.Newman, Ryan-03.12
22.Stenhouse, Jr., Ricky-06.86
23.Briscoe, Chase-07.81
24.Suarez, Daniel-12.93
25.Wallace, Bubba-15.37
26.Custer, Cole-20.90
27.Preece, Ryan-21.30
28.LaJoie, Corey-27.42
29.McDowell, Michael-30.68
30.Alfredo, Anthony-31.83
31.Haley, Justin-34.54
32.Smithley, Garrett-41.56
33.Ware, Cody-42.39
34.Houff, Quin-42.82
35.McLeod, BJ-42.94
36.Bilicki, Josh-44.37
37.Davison, James-46.05
38.Hill, Timmy-50.95
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Pocono Saturday Slingshot NASCAR Fantasy Picks

By
Jordan McAbee
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Chase Elliott leading the pack at Pocono 2020
Photo Credit: Patrick Smith | Getty Images

This weekend we have the Pocono Doubleheader! On Saturday will be the Pocono Organics CBD 325 and then on Sunday they’ll line them up and do it again with the Explore the Pocono Mountains 350. Teams will have to use the same car and engine for both races, and Sunday’s starting lineup will be determined by a top 20 invert from the results of Saturday’s race (more on that in the video). Lately, Pocono has been a great track for both Joe Gibbs Racing and Stewart-Haas Racing, who each have their own bit of struggles going on right now. Adding to the uncertainty is that we haven’t raced at Pocono or a track similar to Pocono since last summer, and a lot has changed since then. In case you missed it, RotoDoc and I discussed this on our new podcast, Stacking Dennys, and you can listen to that by clicking here.

Another dominating performance last weekend means Kyle Larson will start on the pole again this weekend, and he will have teammate William Byron alongside, starting 2nd. You can click here to see the starting lineup for Saturday’s race to see where everyone else will line up. Now let’s get to the picks!

*Please note: the picks and suggestions below are my opinions and strategy for the Slingshot Fantasy Auto Contest. These are not meant to sway your thinking in any way, but rather give you insight into the drivers I am most likely to pick on race day.*

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Jordan’s Strategy Breakdown Video

(Hit Play Button To Watch & Click Here to Subscribe to My Channel on YouTube)

Slingshot Fantasy Auto Contest Picks for Pocono Saturday

The Safe

Chase Elliott ($12,200) – Thanks to his disqualification at Nashville last weekend, Chase Elliott will be starting from 29th for Saturday’s Pocono race, which obviously makes him a great place differential pick in the Slingshot Fantasy Auto Contest. As far as track history here at Pocono, I wouldn’t say Chase has ever been the flat-out guy to beat (maybe in 2016, when he led 51 laps), but he’s finished top 10 in seven of his ten career starts here, which are basically the seven races he didn’t have any issues mid-race. My algorithm has Chase predicted to finish 8th on Saturday but he has top 5 potential.

Denny Hamlin ($11,800) – Speaking of the algorithm…Denny Hamlin is projected to win his first race of the season this Saturday by it! It’s super close in the Power Index between him, Larson, and Harvick, but not too many people will be surprised if Hamlin ends up in victory lane this weekend. Dennis is a six-time Pocono winner in the Cup Series and has really put up some dominating efforts in his career here. Currently, he’s on a five-race streak of top 10 results at “The Tricky Triangle,” and with him starting 10th on Saturday, there’s some decent place differential upside as well for Slingshot players.

Ryan Blaney ($10,600) – I’ll preface this by saying I don’t think Ryan Blaney is a guaranteed top 10 finisher here at Pocono on Saturday, but with him starting 27th and being only $10,600 in the Slingshot Fantasy Auto Contest, it’s hard to pass up that opportunity for so many place differential points. As far as track history here at Pocono, Blaney actually has a win here (back in 2017 with Wood Brothers Racing) but since joining Team Penske he’s been about a 10th-to-12th-place car. Still, a 12th-place finish out of Young Ryan Blaney–which is the position my algorithm thinks he’ll end up on Saturday–would still equal 98 points in this Slingshot Fantasy Auto Contest.

The Risky

Kevin Harvick ($11,300) – This weekend, especially the first race on Saturday, is going to be a good indication of where Stewart-Haas Racing is at right now, because the Ford engine has always been strong at Pocono, and this team overall has always been strong at this track as well. Harvick finished 1st and 2nd in the doubleheader here last year, and has finishes of 6th or better in all but one of his last nine starts at this track. He’s going to roll off the grid from the 3rd starting spot on Saturday, which is what makes him so risky in this Slingshot Fantasy Auto Contest, but if there’s any week that Harvick and company finally show up and compete for a win, it’s going to be this weekend.

Daniel Suarez ($7,400) – There are a couple of drivers I really like in this price range, one being Ross Chastain ($7,600), who we talked about extensively on the Stacking Dennys podcast this week (click here to listen). And while I definitely still love Chastain as a sleeper on Saturday, he’s starting 6th, which makes him just a tad too risky for me with the Slingshot Fantasy Auto Contest. Another guy who is also risky but gives you a little more of a safety net is the driver starting 14th: Daniel Suarez. If these Chevrolet engines are, in fact, the strongest this season, Suarez could grab a top 10 (or two) here at Pocono this weekend. In his six career non-junk-car starts at “The Tricky Triangle,” Daniel has four top 15s and three finishes of 8th or better (including a 2nd here in 2018 with Joe Gibbs Racing).

Erik Jones ($7,100) – Don’t be surprised if Erik Jones grabs a good finish or two here at Pocono this weekend. There have been two tracks on the circuit that have been awesome for EJ and they are Darlington and Pocono. In eight career starts at “The Tricky Triangle,” Jones has finished 8th or better in six of them, and three of his last four starts here have ended with him inside the top 3. Now, all of those starts were when Jones was with Joe Gibbs Racing or the quasi-JGR team, Furniture Row Racing. However, Jones and this #43 team are starting to find their (relative) groove, and now have five finishes of 19th or better in the last six races. Don’t count out Jones for a mid-teens finish on Saturday, and maybe even a sneaky top 10 depending on how the race plays out. Still, though, he’s risky because of the mediocre equipment he’s racing.

The Winner

“Race Winner” Pick = Kyle Larson – The guy has finished 1st or 2nd in seven straight Cup Series races, six of which were points-paying events. Larson doesn’t have a win here at Pocono, but he does have three Stage victories from his Chip Ganassi Racing days, as well as six finishes of 8th or better in 12 career starts, including a 2nd-place result here in 2018. The algorithm doesn’t have Larson ranked #1 outright this weekend, but he’s right there at the top. The #5 Chevrolet will be a contender on Saturday, and more than likely Sunday, too.

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FanDuel NASCAR Driver Projections & Picks for Pocono Saturday

By
Jordan McAbee
-
Brad Keselowski 5G Verizon Ford at Kansas
Photo Credit: Sean Gardner/Getty Images

The first race of this weekend’s doubleheader at Pocono is on Saturday with the Pocono Organics CBD 325. Kyle Larson is on the pole and there are plenty of great place differential options, so this may finally be the week where he doesn’t end up in the optimal lineup (although I wouldn’t hold your breath). Pocono is a 2.5-mile flat track and there’s really nothing comparable to it that we’ve raced at this season. Add in the fact that strategy often comes into play at this track and we could be looking at some surprising finishers up front on Saturday. With that being said, Saturday’s race should definitely give us a good idea on who will be strong on Sunday. My algorithm predicted finishing order is a great tool to check out as well when making picks, and you can click here to look at that. Now let’s get to the FanDuel projections!

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Driver-by-Driver Breakdown Video

Now for the video breakdown! Be sure to go here and subscribe to my YouTube channel if you haven’t already.

Optimal Lineup According to Jordan’s Projections

The optimal FanDuel lineup for Pocono Saturday according to my Projections is:

  • Denny Hamlin
  • Chase Elliott
  • Ryan Blaney
  • Alex Bowman
  • Ryan Newman

Confidence Rating = 8.4/10. Just pure place differential here, and you’re likely going to see a lot of similar builds like this, so you may want to find a way to differentiate the lineup. However, in cash contests, this lineup is perfectly fine. It’s hard to go wrong in Fantasy NASCAR when you can fit Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, and Alex Bowman into the same lineup, especially without having to grab a back marker.

FanDuel “Safe” DFS Picks for Pocono Saturday (Cash Lineups)

Chase Elliott Ryan Blaney 2019 Fantasy NASCAR
Photo Credit: Chris Graythen/Getty Images

Chase Elliott ($11,000) – Wow, what a mis-price here. Chase Elliott starts 29th on Saturday and has posted top 10 results in every single Pocono race he’s ran in the Cup Series except the ones he had issues mid-race (three times). Three of those seven top 10 finishes were also top 5s. Add in the fact that the Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolets are ridiculously fast right now, plus Chase being priced at $11,000 on FanDuel and, yeah… no brainer here in cash.

Brad Keselowski ($10,500) – My projections like the other Penske Racing place differential play–Ryan Blaney ($10,300)–just a bit better, but Keselowski has a better track record here at Pocono, so I’ll roll with him in cash. In the 11 races at this track since 2015, Brad has finished 11th or better in all but one of them, and seven of those have also been top 5 finishes. Yes, Blaney has higher upside with place differential this weekend, but Keselowski has higher upside with finishing position. It’s close on these guys; both Keselowski and Blaney are strong FanDuel options this weekend, but with that being said, I don’t see either contending for a top 5 finish, so there’s strategy in tournaments to be underweight on them. In cash, though, they’re solid.

FanDuel “Risky” DFS Picks for Pocono Saturday (Tournament Lineups)

Bubba Wallace waving to fans in front of #23 Doordash Toyota
Photo Credit: Chris Graythen/Getty Images

Christopher Bell ($9,000) – Finally, at Nashville last weekend, the bad runs stopped for this #20 team and Christopher Bell, as they grabbed their first top 10 finish since the Richmond race back in April. Let’s see if they can keep that momentum going here at Pocono on Sunday. As far as track history goes, CBell finished 4th in the first race here last season before wrecking out of the second, and in the Xfinity Series, he finished 5th at “The Tricky Triangle” in 2019. What I really like, though, is how Erik Jones performed in this #20 Toyota at Pocono: four top 5s in six starts, including a 3rd in the second race last year. Christopher Bell starts 9th on Saturday but if he can pull off a top 5 finish, that’s going to be a great score for a $9,000 driver on FanDuel.

Bubba Wallace ($5,000) – As mentioned in the video several times, Joe Gibbs Racing has been really, really good here at Pocono Raceway lately, and now Bubba Wallace is basically driving a fifth JGR car. Yeah, this #23 team hasn’t quite put it all together yet, but they’re making strides. What’s encouraging (to me) with Bubba Wallace this weekend is how he has finished between 20th and 22nd in the last four Pocono races despite being in mediocre Richard Petty Motorsports equipment. Most DFS players will be low on Bubba this weekend, especially since he’s starting 20th, but there’s upside there and a reason to be overweight in tournaments (especially at that $5,000 price).

FanDuel Driver Projections for Pocono Saturday

The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from six different ranking systems. Also factored in are projected laps led for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.

DriverFanDuel SalaryAvg Proj PtsStarting PositionCeiling Proj PtsDollar Per Pt
Kyle Larson$14,50059.17166.00$245
Denny Hamlin$13,50056.331063.90$240
Chase Elliott$11,00056.252964.00$196
Kyle Busch$13,00052.00561.00$250
William Byron$11,50050.90255.90$226
Ryan Blaney$10,30050.252756.40$205
Martin Truex Jr.$12,50049.501554.00$253
Kevin Harvick$12,00049.37359.10$243
Brad Keselowski$10,50047.751855.40$220
Alex Bowman$9,50046.501353.00$204
Joey Logano$10,00043.65451.50$229
Christopher Bell$9,00042.00952.00$214
Matt DiBenedetto$8,20041.502148.00$198
Chris Buescher$7,00039.752547.00$176
Austin Dillon$8,00039.501246.50$203
Erik Jones$6,50039.502249.10$165
Kurt Busch$8,50038.00842.20$224
Tyler Reddick$8,70037.501651.90$232
Aric Almirola$6,50036.751149.70$177
Ryan Newman$5,30036.501944.00$145
Cole Custer$5,50036.002653.50$153
Daniel Suarez$5,80034.751449.40$167
Ross Chastain$6,00033.50649.50$179
Chase Briscoe$5,00033.502841.60$149
Bubba Wallace$5,00033.252047.50$150
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.$7,50031.00739.50$242
Ryan Preece$4,50031.003136.50$145
Corey LaJoie$4,50027.002338.50$167
Michael McDowell$5,20026.501732.50$196
Justin Haley$2,50025.903429.00$97
Anthony Alfredo$4,00024.002431.50$167
Cody Ware$3,00021.553526.50$139
Quin Houff$3,50021.303727.50$164
James Davison$2,50021.053625.50$119
B.J. McLeod$2,00019.803223.50$101
Garrett Smithley$2,00018.803024.00$106
Josh Bilicki$3,00018.453321.00$163
Timmy Hill$2,00016.503820.50$121
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Kyle Larson Is Really F’n Good (Pocono Preview) – Stacking Dennys Podcast Episode 01

By
Jordan McAbee
-
Kyle Larson Burnout at Texas Motor Speedway All Star Race
Photo Credit: Sean Gardner/Getty Images

In the first ever episode of Stacking Dennys, Jordan and RotoDoc talk about:

  • Just how good Kyle Larson is
  • Nashville Superspeedway takeaways
  • What’s wrong with Joe Gibbs Racing?
  • What’s wrong with Penske?
  • Pocono Weekend Preview
  • NASCAR people that have blocked us
  • and more!

You can listen below by using that embedded player or listen on:

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