The NASCAR Cup Series is off to Austin, Texas this weekend and the Circuit of the Americas road course. This is a 20-turn race track and, from what we saw during the brief practice session here on Saturday, the EchoPark Texas Grand Prix on Sunday could end up being a very interesting race. One thing that could give DFS players fits on Sunday is the penalty for not making it through the esses correctly, which is a pass through the pits. That will ruin a driver’s day very quickly and force them to need a caution. Obviously that’s not something us fantasy players can control, we just have to hope it doesn’t effect our guys!

DraftKings Fantasy Strategy for Circuit of the Americas

• This is the first road course race of the season with the NextGen car, and from what we saw during the brief practice session on Saturday, the drivers are still figuring out this race car and how it handles on this type of track. I think we’ll see a lot of drivers gaining knowledge and speed during the race on Sunday, especially those that weren’t super fast on Saturday.
• This is a very short race at only 68 laps. That means we’re looking at just 17 DraftKings FPTS for laps led on Sunday and probably around 22.5 DraftKings FPTS for fastest laps. In other words, don’t be overly concerned about dominator points! Putting together the best lineup this weekend will likely come down to place differential and finish points as opposed to dominator points.
• We know which drivers were the best at road courses with the old cars, but this NextGen car will likely even the playing field here on Sunday. What does that mean from a DFS perspective? A lot of players are going to still have the old mentality of which drivers are “sure things” at road courses. Don’t be afraid to be a little outside of the box on Sunday with your lineups with small pivots.

Optimal Lineup According to Jordan’s Projections

The optimal DraftKings lineup for COTA on Sunday according to my Projections is:

• Kyle Larson
• William Byron
• AJ Allmendinger
• Ross Chastain
• Kevin Harvick
• Joey Hand

DraftKings NASCAR Picks for the EchoPark Texas Grand Prix

William Byron ($9,300) – The Hendrick fleet as a whole struggled a bit during practice on Saturday, but got faster as the day went on–especially Alex Bowman, whose team seemed to hit on something eventually. Why is this important? Because I don’t think that you shouldn’t be overly concerned by William Byron’s 27th-fastest lap in practice or the fact that he qualified back in 24th. We have 68 laps around this 20-turn race track on Sunday, and I find it difficult to believe that Byron won’t find his way toward the front eventually. Willy B has showed promise at road courses in the past and he has 8 top 11 finishes in his 15 career Cup Series starts at this track type. Byron is one of my favorite driver plays on this slate this weekend.

AJ Allmendinger ($8,800) – He’s going to be a very popular DFS play this weekend since he starts back in 20th, but AJ Allmendinger at a road course is a match made in heaven. Add in the fact that both Kaulig Racing Chevrolets showed good speed on Saturday during practice and qualifying, and you can’t really go wrong here. Now obviously there’s a strategy play here to go underweight on Allmendinger because he’s going to be so high-owned this weekend, but unless he wrecks, AJ should be a solid top 10 car, if not top 5. Looking at the road course races last season, Allmendinger won that crazy Indy Road Course race after finishing 7th at the Daytona Road Course and 5th here at COTA earlier in the year.

Ross Chastain ($8,200) – Driver #3 of this week’s core is Ross Chastain. I say it every week, but I’ll say it again: these Trackhouse cars have brought the speed to start out the 2022 season, and that was definitely apparent on Sunday with how fast Daniel Suarez was in practice. His teammate, Ross Chastain, just missed out on making the Fast Five during his qualifying round, though, and because of that will have to start back in 16th on Sunday. Chastain is going to be fast in the EchoPark Texas Grand Prix, though, just like he’s been all season long. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if he challenged for the win. Last year on road courses, Ross finished 4th here at COTA and also 7th at both Sonoma and Road America. He has legitimate top 10 potential on Sunday with a good chance at a top 5 as well.

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COTA EchoPark Texas Grand Prix DraftKings Driver Projections

The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from six different ranking systems. Also factored in are projected laps led and fastest laps for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.

This week, NASCAR will be in Austin, Texas as all three series compete at Circuit of the Americas (COTA). It is the first of several road courses on the schedule in 2022, but luckily for us, road courses have been historically more predictable than what we’ve been trying to decipher the past few weeks.

The Camping World Trucks Series and Xfinity Series put on good shows yesterday. While there was certainly action throughout, few drivers wrecked out of the race. Sunday’s Cup Series race may prove different due to the NextGen car, but overall, a road course is still a road course; data is still data; and NASCAR DFS is still NASCAR DFS. Though it will be a change of pace from previous weeks, COTA should continue the excitement and forward momentum of the 2022 season!

Pace Laps: Info to Know

COTA is a 3.426-mile road course, famously used for F1, IndyCar, MotoGP, and now NASCAR among others. 2021 marked the first time NASCAR raced here, but conditions were much different than will likely be seen this weekend. Last year, the Cup Series race was run during a torrential downpour, while today, the weather is sunny with temperatures around 90 degrees. With the new car, minimal practice time, and different weather conditions, things could get ugly. Then again, the race could follow suit with the lower series, which would be beneficial for DFS purposes. How results and strategy will be affected remains to be seen, but we have a decent sample size of other road course races that should provide at least some insight as to what to expect.

Stage 1: Trends to Follow

Normally, trends would be extremely useful for projecting future results. However, with so many unknowns and changes, they may not be as applicable this week. Among other changes since last year, qualifying set the starting lineup, rather than using a calculation, and teams have been warned about a possible penalty for shortcutting the track through the “esses.” While it may seem unlikely for that penalty to matter and/or occur, just ask Jeb Burton and Jeremy Clements, who went from potential top 5 finishes to ruined days after serving the drive-through penalty late in the Xfinity Series race yesterday. Some notable trends are listed below, but remember, their utility may be limited.

• Over the last 12 Cup Series road course races (since 2019), drivers starting in the top 5 have achieved top 10 DraftKings scores more often than drivers starting worse than 30th. 

Though laps led are not as essential to strong fantasy performances at road courses due to less laps being run, drivers staying consistently near the front have fared better than drivers with the highest place differential upside starting in the back.

• 68.3% of top 10 DraftKings scores over the last 12 road courses came from drivers starting in the top 20. On the other hand, a majority of drivers posting a bottom 10 DK score started worse than 20th.

Though restarts can be hectic at road courses, drivers tend to get spread out fairly quickly, thus diminishing the chance for big swings in place differential. Again, if chaos ensues due to the new cars, drivers starting near the back could have strong fantasy performances if attrition takes out other cars.

• Only 3 of last 12 optimal lineups at road courses have spent less than $49,000.

Two of those three came in 2021 at COTA and Indy GP, which makes sense given the heavy downpour last year here and the turtles launching cars in Indianapolis. With regard to pricing, all but one optimal lineup at road courses since 2019 has rostered 2 to 3 drivers priced above $9,000.

Stage 2: Drivers to Watch

Kyle Larson ($10,400) – Another week, another blurb. The defending series champion was the best driver on road courses last season, though he was edged out here at COTA by teammate, Chase Elliott. Larson did not sound confident in his car after practice and hasn’t been the dominant driver of 2021 so far this season. However, he does provide some place differential upside and should contend for the win as he gets stronger throughout the race.

William Byron ($9,300) – If you listened to the Stacking Dennys podcast this week, Jordan and Nick discussed how recent performance has been the strongest predictor of future success at road courses. Byron has also ran well at this track type, though admittedly more so at “hybrids” like ROVAL, but he has not gotten the strong finishes. His upside is unmatched by others in this price range and thus should be pretty chalky.

AJ Allmendinger ($8,800) – The amount of laps during yesterday’s Xfinity Series race around this unfamiliar track should prove beneficial to Allmendinger. He won in dominating fashion, demonstrating his exceptional road racing skills. As seen last year in Indianapolis, he has winning upside even here in the Cup Series. Starting 20th, AJ also provides some place differential.

Ross Chastain ($8,200) – Man, what an improvement Chastain has made over the past year! Whether it’s the new car or a willingness to be less aggressive, he has run consistently up front in 2022. Despite being in inferior equipment, he led double-digit laps and finished 2nd in yesterday’s Xfinity Series race. It’s a small sample size, but Chastain ranked 2nd in average lap time in practice. Could his first Cup win come here at COTA?

Daniel Suarez ($7,100) – If not Chastain, why not his Trackhouse Racing teammate? Suarez appears to be a strong bet to get his first win as well this week. After ranking 1st in average lap time in yesterday’s practice, he followed it up with a strong 2nd-place qualifying effort. Suarez has sounded confident all weekend and said earlier this week that COTA is his best chance for a win. He was running top 5 here last season until transmission issues ended his day early.

Michael McDowell ($6,200) – Death, taxes, and recommending McDowell at road courses. He isn’t in the top tier or road racers in the Cup Series, but he does have an extensive history in road course racing prior to his NASCAR career. Don’t let his recent results fool you; he’s a constant threat for a top 15 finish at this track type. Then again, joining the Fantasy Racing Online #GillyGang for $600 cheaper could be just as successful. Todd Gilliland ($5,600) did win the inaugural Truck Series race here last spring…

Final Lap

Given the unknowns associated with this race, it may be a good idea to lower individual exposures to each driver in the event of chaos if entering multiple lineups. When constructing single-entry lineups, prioritize place differential and top 15 finishing potential and roster no more than 2 drivers starting in the top 10. 

Other drivers to consider (in order of salary): Chase Elliott, Kyle Busch, Austin Cindric, Tyler Reddick, Kurt Busch, Erik Jones, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Bubba Wallace, Cole Custer, Harrison Burton, Corey Lajoie, Ty Dillon

For any questions or comments, you can always find me on Twitter. Best of luck this weekend! Enjoy the somewhat predictable nature of this race before a new track in Atlanta next week.

Well, this should be interesting.

Atlanta Motor Speedway used to be one of the more predictable race tracks on the schedule. Up until this year, it was a high-wear track that rewarded drivers who had a fast car and knew how to take care of their tires on the long run. Thanks to the new repave and re-configurement of the track, though, those days are gone.

It’s now looking like Sunday’s race at Atlanta is going to be more like a superspeedway event (like Daytona and Talladega) than a typical 1.5-mile track race. Before we get to NASCAR Fantasy Strategy, though let’s check in on what a few drivers are saying about the new Atlanta this weekend:

Make sure you check out the Algorithm Predicted Finishing Order for this race by clicking here!

DraftKings Fantasy Strategy for Atlanta Motor Speedway

• First and foremost, I want to be clear here: I have no idea what to expect on Sunday at Atlanta Motor Speedway. Anyone who confidently says they know what is going to happen is lying to your face. We got one 50-minute practice session on Saturday, and while that did give us a glimpse into what the racing may look like, it’s hard to tell for sure until all 37 cars are on track on Sunday.
• What I expect: I’m going into Sunday’s Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 expecting it to play out like a superspeedway race. I think we’re going to get a lot of “follow the leader” racing, and we’re probably going to get a “big one” wreck. When it comes to DraftKings lineup construction, I’m going to roll with a very similar strategy to what I do with at Daytona and Talladega (more on that a little bit further down).
• This is a 325 lap race scheduled for Sunday afternoon, which means we’re looking at 81.25 FPTS up for grabs for laps led and probably around 115 FPTS for fastest laps, depending on the cautions. Please note that if this race ends up being similar to a superspeedway, fastest laps are going to be extremely spread out among the drivers. Looking back at the Daytona 500 this year, Kurt Busch had the most fastest laps in that race (11) followed by Joey Logano (8) and then Bubba Wallace, Daniel Hemric, and Kyle Larson (7).
• I think being comfortable with the car and how it’s driving is going to be key for a driver to be able to run well here on Sunday. Ryan over at ifantasyrace.com does a great job with Practice Notes, so make sure you take a look at those (click here) to see what the drivers are thinking after Saturday’s session.

Jordan’s Superspeedway Strategy For DFS

If this “new” Atlanta races like a superspeedway on Sunday (as most people are expecting), finishing position and place differential are going to be the keys to winning in DraftKings.

With that being said, Sunday’s race at Atlanta is also 125 laps longer than this year’s Daytona 500, which means we do have to weigh in potential lap leaders a little higher than we would at a superspeedway. Still, though, I think the best strategy when building lineups for Atlanta is a one-dominator lineup, or even pure place differential.

Now let’s quickly talk about finishing position and place differential for a second. Take a look at this chart below (click to make it bigger). It shows each driver’s base DraftKings scored by simply taking into account their starting position (top row) and finishing position (left column).

AS YOU CAN SEE, IT RARELY PAYS OFF TO TAKE THE GUYS STARTING UP FRONT! A DRIVER THAT STARTS 35TH AND FINISHES 12TH SCORES MORE DRAFTKINGS POINTS THAN A DRIVER STARTING 10TH THAT FINISHES 2ND!

Optimal Lineup According to Jordan’s Projections

The optimal DraftKings lineup for Atlanta on Sunday according to my Projections is:

• Kyle Larson
• Denny Hamlin
• Brad Keselowski
• Bubba Wallace
• Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.
• Cole Custer

DraftKings NASCAR Picks for the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500

Before we get to my favorite picks this weekend, just note that this is a great race to go against the chalk. With ownerships, I think we’re going to get many DraftKings players continuing to gravitate toward the “big names” that are the most obvious plays (like Kyle Larson, for example). Strategy-wise, this opens the door to go against the popular picks and pivot to a lesser-owned driver. If, in that example, Larson has issues on Sunday, and you’re underweight on him, that is a great strategic move in a race where randomness is more likely. I also think it’s important to remember that you don’t have to use all $50,000 of the cap in superspeedway races. With this being Atlanta and a 1.5-mile track, DFS players are more likely to still use that strategy when building lineups, giving you the opportunity to differentiate yourself.

Bubba Wallace ($7,300) – As I mentioned before, I think being comfortable in the car is going to be a big advantage for drivers in Atlanta on Sunday, and Bubba Wallace was one of the happiest during the practice session on Saturday. The #23 Toyota also posted some solid lap times, ranking 12th-best in 10-lap average as well as 20-lap average. Bubba’s superspeedway prowess is no joke, either: he finished 2nd in this year’s Daytona 500, giving him three top 5s in the last four races at that track, plus he’s ended up 17th or better in nine of his ten Daytona starts. Wallace starts 19th on Sunday, which gives him decent place differential upside while also being high enough that some DraftKings users may stay away from him and see him as too risky.

Noah Gragson ($5,800) – Gragson is in the #16 Chevrolet for Kaulig Racing this weekend, and although he didn’t look to have much speed at all during the practice session on Saturday, I’m not overly concerned about that at all. I think the Chevrolets handle the best in traffic this weekend at Atlanta, and Kaulig Racing has a history of being very strong on superspeedways. Gragson did run in this year’s Daytona 500 but wrecked out late, although he did show some promise. Starting back in 30th with a better-than-decent car and a projected ownership under 20% is music to my ears this weekend. I’ll be overweight on Gragson for sure.

Todd Gilliland ($5,600) – Did you really think we’d stop at another superspeedway and I wouldn’t be on the #GillyGang train once again? Todd Gilliland had legitimate speed in the Daytona 500 this year and was massively under-owned compared to where he should have been. At Atlanta this weekend, he’s going to be low-owned once again, but mainly because he starts 25th, and in the driver pool he’s sandwiched between Noah Gragson (who starts 30th) and David Ragan and Corey LaJoie (who start 35th and 33rd, respectively). Gilliland starting 25th raises the risk a little bit, but making pivots like that could easily be the way someone takes down the big GPP on Sunday. In practice on Saturday, the #38 Ford showed decent speed actually, ranking 18th-best in 5-lap average, 20th-best in 10-lap average, and 13th-best in 15-lap average.

Stacking Dennys Podcast with Jordan & RotoDoc

Atlanta Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 DraftKings Driver Projections

The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from six different ranking systems. Also factored in are projected laps led and fastest laps for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.