Palm trees swaying in the wind. 

200 laps on a 2-mile oval.

Cars wrecking all over the place…

No, it’s not Daytona again this week, but it sure does feel like it! The Cup Series returns today to Auto Club Speedway for the first time since 2020 after a year away due to COVID restrictions in 2021. The more things change, the more they stay the same….

Pace Laps: Setting the Stage

Fontana is referred to as a “driver’s track” due to the vast amount of racing grooves available. While it should provide more passing opportunities, the racing does get spread out at times with the most mayhem coming on restarts. However, as seen in practice and qualifying yesterday, the new cars have added another element to the race. Several drivers, even veterans like Harvick and Logano, lost control of their cars during the session, illustrating how hard this car is to drive, especially on the rough surface in Fontana.

Fontana is a 2.0-mile track with a rough surface that degrades tires quickly relative to most other tracks. The race will feature 200 laps, yielding a maximum of 135 dominator points. Comparable tracks include Homestead-Miami, Atlanta, and Darlington, due to similar high tire wear, as well as Michigan, the other 2.0-mile oval on the schedule. Optimal lineups at these tracks may offer some insight into constructing winning lineups.

Stage 1: Lineup Construction

• Over the past 5 Fontana races, 21 (42%) of 50 drivers earning a top 10 DraftKings score started in the top 10. Meanwhile, only 5 (10%) started 30th or worse.

While it may be tempting to target place differential starting far back in the field, it may not be the optimal strategy. Drivers are 4x more likely to make an optimal lineup when starting up front than when they are in the back. Of the 5 drivers to start 30th or worse and make the optimal lineup, 4 are former Cup Series champions. Then again, if the wrecks in practice continue, there is a higher probability of backmarkers having huge fantasy performances.

• Over the past 5 Fontana races, 789 (78.4%) of the laps have been led by a driver starting on the front two rows (positions 1-4).

Though restarts can get a little crazy, cars seem to spread out within a few laps. Passes that do not occur on the restart tend to happen later in the run when drivers are experiencing different rates of tire degradation. As seen in yesterday’s Xfinity Series race, the outside lane seems to get a better launch, especially off of turn 2 allowing that driver to keep the lead.

• Every driver with a top 10 DraftKings performance at Fontana since 2016 has scored at least 39 points. All but three finished the race in 15th position or better.

Using approximately 40 points as a minimum point total needed as a means to limit a driver pool could be a winning strategy. It may help decide between drivers in similar situations or rule out drivers that do not have that ceiling. Also, it is unlikely that a driver in the optimal lineup does not finish top 15. The three that did not were the aforementioned champions starting worse than 30th.

• While the 2021 package may not be similar at all, lineups at comparable tracks followed a few trends to note.

All drivers featured in optimal lineups at these tracks in 2021 scored a minimum of 5x value. Going further, all but two achieved 5.5x value. 35 of 36 drivers finished in the top 15, with the exception being Chris Buescher who led a large chunk of laps at Homestead before the sun went down. All lineups included at least two drivers starting in the top 10 with only 4 of the 36 drivers starting outside the top 30. Of note, 2021 did not have qualifying, so faster cars almost always started closer to the front, making this trend not as reliable.

Stage 2: Drivers to Target

Cash Game Targets

Kyle Busch ($10,400) – Not only does he have perhaps the best track history of anyone in the field, he has one of the easiest paths to dominator points. Starting 3rd, he should be able to pass Cindric and Jones to take the early lead. Practice may not have been very useful from a speed perspective given the limited timeframe, but Busch tried running multiple lines which should come in handy when trying to make passes. He also had the 2nd fastest 10 lap average speed in practice and has scored the most dominator points at Fontana over the past 5 years. He’ll undoubtedly be a popular play, but his upside makes him worthy of such high ownership.

Kevin Harvick ($9,200) – Likely the highest owned play on this slate, Harvick possesses great place differential upside from his 32nd starting spot. It is slightly worrisome that he did not complete a single full lap in practice before wrecking, but given his experience level, that worry can be mitigated somewhat. Results at Fontana have been mixed, but he did have consecutive 2nd place finishes in 2015 and 2016. Why is that significant? NASCAR was running a low downforce package, similar to that on this new car. Though drivers starting 30th or worse do not often have great fantasy performances at Fontana, Harvick is the only former champion starting this far back and has top 10 upside.

Cole Custer ($5,900) – After a commanding victory in yesterday’s Xfinity Series race, Custer may receive a slight bump in ownership. However, he appears to be one of the better plays priced below $6,000. Other drivers mentioned that the bumps in the track were contributing to the wrecks seen in practice and qualifying. Though the packages are different and lift points will likely be different, Custer’s laps in yesterday’s race should prove beneficial as he will have a better grasp of where the bumps are. He doesn’t bring immense upside in any category but should be a safe play that provides some salary relief.

GPP Targets

Kyle Larson ($11,600) – There is no way to count out the defending Cup Series champion, especially on a track where the high line can be utilized. Some people have called Fontana a “2-mile dirt track”, and Larson is arguably the greatest dirt racer in the world. In 2021, Larson dominated a majority of the races on intermediate tracks, scoring the most dominator points at Atlanta, despite not winning one on a comparable track. He does have 3 top 2 finishes at Fontana and has won at Michigan, another 2.0 mile track. Larson’s practice speed wasn’t particularly impressive, but he appeared to be playing it safe to avoid the misfortune experienced by other drivers. Expect him to utilize whatever groove is necessary to maneuver around the competition as he ranked 1st in passing efficiency in 2021 per Motorsports Analytics.

Kurt Busch ($8,800) – After failing pre-race inspection three times, Busch will have to serve a pass-through penalty at the beginning of the race. While it could possibly hurt his chances of being optimal, it is certainly not guaranteed. Given the size of Auto Club Speedway, he may not go a lap down. Also, if these drivers are struggling to handle their cars as much as they did yesterday, he should be in prime position to get the free pass at the first caution. Kurt always performs well at tracks with high tire wear, as evidenced by his win (out of nowhere) at Atlanta last season and five finishes of 6th or better in his last 8 races here at Fontana. Hopefully, the penalty lowers public exposure and he capitalizes on this opportunity to score a large amount of points at a depressed ownership.

Final Lap

There are several different ways to construct lineups for today’s race. In each of the last 4 Fontana races, there have been two drivers lead more than 10 laps. Likewise, with the amount of tire wear, fastest laps tend to get spread throughout the field. Thus, limiting lineups to two potential dominators will be a common route. If the race is absolutely chaotic and caution-filled, stacking the back a la Daytona could be a winning strategy. However, if the race is shockingly similar to past Fontana races despite the new car, follow the trends posted above and find your way to victory lane!

After very eventful practice and qualifying sessions, the field is now set for Sunday’s race at Fontana. Daytona 500 Champion and cup series rookie Austin Cindric continues to grab headlines scoring his first career pole. One lap into the group “A” practice, the first of the day for the Cup Series, Kevin Harvick spun his #4 Subway Ford in turn 4 making contact with the wall, and a lap after going green again in the same corner, Ross Chastain destroyed his Casa Del Sol Tequila #1 Chevrolet.

Things didn’t get much better from there as more drivers continued to spin and hit the wall both in practice and qualifying. This led to no qualifying attempt by Justin Haley (31), Bubba Wallace (23), Ross Chastain (1), and Kevin Harvick (4). Aric Almirola (10) spun during his qualifying lap recording no time and Kurt Busch (45) failed tech inspection three times and was not allowed to qualify. He will also serve a pass-thru penalty after the green flag drops Sunday. All of these guys will start and be scored from 31^st-36^th.

Joey Logano will also start from the rear after making repairs to his Penske Ford that tagged the wall but will be scored from his qualifying position of 7^th place. 

DraftKings Strategy For the Wise Power 400 at Auto Club Speedway 

This weekend could be very interesting. This race has been notoriously caution-free and a clean race, but you throw in the unknowns of this NextGen race car, the chaos we saw in practice and qualifying, the first time we will see 4 tire pit stops every pit stop with the new one lug nut tire, and things could get wild.

Nobody is quite sure what to expect on Sunday. With so many good drivers on solid teams starting near the back, place differential could be key this weekend, especially if this ends up being a survival of the fittest race. The guys starting in the back will be very chalky plays, so you need to decide how much chalk you want, who you think will get the most dominator points, and where you can differentiate yourself. 

Top Play: Kyle Larson ($11,600) 

Starting 13^th this will give the defending champion a chance to earn some place differential points. Larson Is the odds-on favorite to win the race on the DraftKings Sportsbook (+500) and we all know why. He dominated the series in 2021, and it’s expected for him to continue to be a top performer this season. He’s done well here before in the lesser Ganassi cars with a win and two 2^nd-place finishes. Hendrick Motorsports has always done well at Auto Club Speedway, winning the last time the series was here in 2020 with Alex Bowman.  

Great Play: Kyle Busch ($10,400) 

Busch is a guy that will be less owned than Larson. He was 2^nd fastest in practice and qualified his Interstate Batteries Toyota Camry in 3^rd for Sunday’s race. We talked about this on the NASCAR Gambling Podcast: Kyle Busch is one of the best here at Auto Club with three straight top 3 finishes. He comes in with momentum from the Busch Clash and the Daytona 500. He rolled off the truck fast and could easily jump out front, scoring fast laps and leading laps along the way. 

Sneaky Back Play: Aric Almirola ($7,400) 

With all the cars starting in the back with bigger names, I think Aric will be forgotten by the majority. He starts 31st with a much cheaper salary than the bigger name in Kevin Harvick ($9,200), who starts only spot behind Almirola in 32^nd. They both have the same Stewart-Haas racing machines and Almirola has been sneaky good here in the past few races with two straight top 10 finishes. 

Under the Radar Play: Harrison Burton ($6,900)

Starting 22^nd at a very nice $6,900 price tag, Burton will be overlooked this week. The rookie took flight and was the first driver to go upside down in the NextGen car last week at Daytona, so hopefully this week Burton can keep his car going in the right direction. Burton has one appearance at Auto Club Speedway in a 2020 Xfinity Series start, and he won that race. This #21 Wood Brothers car has been known to be fast on these big tracks, look for that again this week. 

The weekend that all NASCAR fans have been impatiently waiting for is finally here: the 2022 Daytona 500 is on Sunday, and with that comes the first-ever Millionaire Maker contest on DraftKings. There are nearly 107,000 spots in this huge contest for The Great American Race, and at $25 per entry, it’s one that you definitely need to fully consider the best strategies when building your lineups so you can leverage your exposures well. With that being said, it only takes one lineup to take down a DraftKings tournament as I proved on Thursday night in Duel #2:

If you listened to the Stacking Dennys podcast this week (click here if you didn’t), you know RotoDoc and I talked at length about the strategy in profiting at DFS with these superspeedway. Always remember: it’s not necessarily about who you pick at Daytona, or what their track record here is, but rather the strategy and game theory you put into the lineup build—plus some luck…a whole lot of luck.

DraftKings Strategy Tactics To Profit At Daytona

We’re trying to avoid “The Big One”–a large wreck that takes out 10+ cars–with our DFS lineups this weekend, and unfortunately, it’s something that is impossible to predict when it will happen. Notice I didn’t say if it will happen. It is extremely like that “The Big One” is going to happen on Sunday. These drivers are going full throttle, 200+ mph, inches away from each other, and one or two are eventually going to make a mistake–and it’s going to cause a pileup wreck that could take out anywhere from 5 to 30 cars. Not joking.

While it can definitely be frustrating when your DFS lineups are ruined by something like that, it’s simply a way of life at these superspeedway race tracks (Daytona and Talladega). So now, you may be wondering then, “so how can you predict which drivers will be good picks on Sunday?” And honestly, you can’t.

What you can do with your DraftKings lineup, though, is strategically pick these drivers. DFS success at Daytona and Talladega has a lot more to do with understanding game theory than it does which actual drivers you pick.

The most important thing you need to pay attention to for this race when building DraftKings lineups is starting position, and typically this is the type of formula I use to build a lineup:

• Top 6 starting spot: sparingly, absolute max of one
• Top 15 starting spot: one driver, maybe two
• 16th-30th starting spot: two or three drivers
• 31st-40th starting spot: remaining spots left
• And don’t forget, it’s perfectly fine to let plenty of salary cap on the table. In fact, it’s encouraged!

Now you may be thinking, “But what about laps led points? And fastest laps points? Those are important in DraftKings!” And yes, they are. But not as important as finishing position and place differential at these big superspeedways. Plus, when it comes to fastest laps, they are completely spread out all over the board; it’s unlikely any driver has more than 10 on Sunday.

Now let’s quickly talk about finishing position and place differential for a second. Take a look at this chart below (click to make it bigger). It shows each driver’s base DraftKings scored by simply taking into account their starting position (top row) and finishing position (left column).

As you can see, it rarely pays off to take the guys starting up front! A driver that starts 35th and finishes 12th scores more DraftKings points than a driver starting 10th that finishes 2nd!

GPP / Tournament Picks

Kevin Harvick ($9,200) – Kevin Harvick starting 22nd on Sunday should bump up his ownership a little bit in DraftKings, but with Joey Logano starting 20th and William Byron starting 23rd, I think what’s going to happen is Harvick goes under-owned, and I’ll love it if that happens. Harvick has won twice at Daytona, and last year on the superspeedways, he was at the top of his game, with three top 10s in the four races and a series-best average finish of 7.8. After going winless in 2021 (for the first time in eleven straight seasons), Harvick will be looking to start off this new season with a bang, and I think he’ll help a lot of DFS players win some money while doing so.

Ty Dillon ($5,200) – The drivers starting from 24th through 29th–Corey LaJoie, Justin Haley, Ty Dillon, Landon Cassill, Greg Biffle, and Todd Gilliland–are all worth being overweight on in DraftKings this weekend. Because of the bigger names starting a little further ahead and a little further back than this group, this “sweet spot” of drivers should go under-owned compared to their likelihood of having a big score in DraftKings. As far as Ty Dillon goes, he’s a great superspeedway racer and masterful at avoiding the wrecks; in eight career starts at Talladega, Ty has never finished worse than 17th (average result of 12th), and here at Daytona, Ty has three finishes of 6th or better in his last five starts. It’s a toss up between Ty Dillon and Corey LaJoie for who I like the most out of the aforementioned group. I wrote up Ty because he starts two spots further back.

Todd Gilliland ($4,700) – As soon as the first Duel finished up on Thursday night, I tweeted out my excitement about where Todd Gilliland ended up. This is giving me flashbacks to the second Talladega race last season, where Anthony Alfredo was criminally under-owned in this same #38 Ford that Gilliland will pilot on Sunday, and then helped me win nearly $10,000 after I talked him up all week. This weekend, Todd Gilliland is going to come in under-owned as well. The reason? He’s in that kind of weird 29th-place starting spot that never gets major ownership unless it’s a big name, plus he’s a rookie. But game theory says that Gilliland is a great play to be overweight on; he just needs an 11th-place finish to hit 50 DraftKings FPTS on Sunday.

Stacking Dennys Podcast with Jordan & RotoDoc

These Will Be The Popular Driver Picks On Sunday

The most important decisions you’re going to make on Sunday will come down to what you do with the drivers that are going to be the highest owned on the slate, and where your own exposure lies compared to the rest of the field. Myself, I like to take a more aggressive approach, so I will typically go lower on exposure with these guys compared to what I project the field will be at, and try to find drivers with similar upside to pivot to (the GPP picks above).

Denny Hamlin ($10,500) – Denny Hamlin is going to be the highest-owned driver on the Daytona 500 slate, with my projections coming in at just over 50%. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s higher than that, though. For those of you that are new, the reason Denny Hamlin is going to be so high-owned is because he starts back in 30th and he’s the best superspeedway racer in the field. He’s finished 5th or better in five of the last eight Daytona races, has four straight top 5 finishes in the Daytona 500 specifically, and has won The Great American Race three times so far. My recommendation: Go between 35-45% exposure if you’re mass entering, but definitely consider fading Hamlin in single entry and 3-entry max contests.

Austin Dillon ($8,400) and Aric Almirola ($8,400) – Austin Dillon used to be a very safe play at Daytona, with seven top 10s in his first eleven starts here–including a Daytona 500 win in 2018–but since then he has just one finish better than 12th in the last six races here. Still, when you’re starting back in 36th, just cracking the top 10 is going to earn a driver 60+ DraftKings FPTS. Aric Almirola is also a previous Daytona winner (he won the July race back in 2014) but has just one top 10 finish in his last eight starts at this track. Like Dillon, though, Almirola nearly starts in the rear (his starting spot is 38th) so he’s a very safe DFS option on Sunday, and will also be one of the most popular picks in DraftKings. My recommendation: I’m going to aim my exposure for both of these drivers at around 40% to stay in line with my projected ownership of the field, while also limiting how many lineups they show up together in to try to gain an edge that way, as there will likely be many DraftKings players pairing both of these drivers together in lineups. Even in single entry and 3-entry max contests, I’d include one of these two.

Noah Gragson ($5,300) and Kaz Grala ($4,900) – Noah Gragson is in the #62 Chevrolet for Beard Motorsports this weekend, so you know he has a solid race car to work with, but Kaz Grala is driving the #50 Chevrolet for the brand new organization of The Money Team Racing. This year’s Daytona 500 will be Gragson’s first-ever Cup Series start, and he starts back in 39th so he’s one of the safest DFS plays in the field. Grala finished 28th, 6th, and 35th in his three Cup starts last season for Kaulig Racing, all of which were superspeedway events. My recommendation: Grala’s equipment concerns me a bit, so I’d like to be underweight on the field and be in the lower-20% with exposure, maybe even in the high-teens. With Gragson, I’ll likely be underweight as well, but still in the 25% exposure range since it is literally impossible for him to score negative FPTS on Sunday.

Daytona 500 DraftKings Driver Projections

The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from six different ranking systems. Also factored in are projected laps led and fastest laps for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.