The Richard Childress Racing teammates of Austin Dillon and Ryan Newman will have a little bit more room to work with this season, and the organization is no longer fielding the #27 Chevrolet (with Paul Menard going to Wood Brothers Racing) and scaling back to a two-car operation. We saw Roush-Fenway Racing make a similar move when they eliminated the #16 Ford of Greg Biffle, and many people point to that as a major factor in Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. and Trevor Bayne having much better seasons in 2017. Will this have the same effect on Richard Childress Racing?
Cup Series History
Austin Dillon arrived on the Cup Series scene back in 2014, backed by his grandfather’s blessing more than anything else. He showed flashes of being able to compete in his first couple of years, but it was the 2016 season when Austin Dillon showed that he might actually belong in NASCAR’s top series, posting 13 total top 10s with an overall average finish of 15.9. Unfortunately, he came crashing back down to earth in 2017, ending up back around his career average finish of 18.7 with just four top 10s. Austin was able to get to victory lane for the first time last season, though, as he took the checkered flag in the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte on a fuel mileage gamble.
Predictions for the Upcoming Season
Austin Dillon’s impressive 2016 season is more of an anomaly than much else at this point. His three other full-time seasons in the Cup Series have yielded very similar results, with Dillon posting four or five top 10s in all three along with a little over twenty lead lap finishes in each as well. There is some hope for the #3 Chevrolet to get back to “better than average” levels, though; not only is Richard Childress Racing scaling back to a two-team operation, but Chevrolet is debuting its new Camaro, which some in the garage believe will be the class of the field in 2018.
Overall Expectations: The biggest concern with Austin Dillon this season is whether or not Richard Childress Racing will be able to improve their 1.5-mile track package. The organization struggled mightily on that track type in 2016, and with 1.5-milers making up the majority of the Cup Series schedule, it’s easy to see why Austin Dillon had a down year. Overall, I expect him to have a significantly better 2018 season compared to last year, although I don’t see Austin getting back to 2016 levels (in terms of top 10 finishes). An average result of around 15th is within reach for the #3 team. It’s noteworthy to mention that Austin ended the 2017 season with five straight finishes of 13th or better.
Can Austin Dillon win a Cup Series race in 2018? It’s unlikely. He’s only won once in 157 Cup Series starts thus far, and that was because of a fuel mileage gamble in the Coca-Cola 600. It’s always possible that Austin steals another win like that in 2018, but looking at it from a “legitimate” standpoint, he probably won’t get to victory lane this year.
Austin Dillon as a Fantasy Option in 2018
DraftKings: The problem with Austin Dillon when it comes to DraftKings is that he’s typically one of those drivers that qualifies better than he finishes. That’s why his career average starting place is 17.7 while his career average finish is 18.7. And when it comes to DraftKings, if you’re going to sacrifice the negative place differential points, you better make them up in dominator points–and that’s not going to happen with Austin Dillon. There will be some races in 2018 where he’s a good DraftKings option, but that’s probably going to be on a very limited basis.
Season-Long Salary Cap Games: I actually like Austin Dillon quite a bit when it comes to season-long salary cap games, as long as he’s priced right. Yes, he made the playoffs in 2017, but as far as average finish goes, last year was Austin’s 2nd-worst in his young Cup Series career. If you can snag Dillon as a low-priced driver option, he’s worth the gamble in big part because of Richard Childress Racing’s potential to really improve this season.
