Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. enters the 2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series season hoping to continue building the momentum that he and the #17 started building last season. Unfortunately for Stenhouse, he followed the same trend that his teammate Trevor Bayne did last season, as Ricky went down to an average finish of 18.7 in the second half of the year after averaging a result of 15.4 in the first half. The food news for Stenhouse fans is that he went from “pretty good” to “great” at the superspeedways last season, getting wins at both Talladega and Daytona. Of course, that was in large part to very strong Ford engines, but that doesn’t negate the fact that Ricky is a damn good plate track driver, and there’s four superspeedway races on the schedule throughout the year.
Cup Series History
After winning back-to-back Xfinity Series championships in 2011 and 2012, Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. made the jump to NASCAR’s top series and was actually decently impressive in his first Cup year, averaging a finish of 18.9 and ending up 19th in points. Roush-Fenway Racing as a whole then regressed quite a bit and Stenhouse struggled mightily in 2014 and 2015. He bounced back a bit in 2016 by nearly getting back to his rookie year numbers before “breaking out” last season, grabbing his first two Cup Series wins while also posting a career-best average finish of 17.1.
Predictions for the Upcoming Season
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. has found success in the Cup Series on tracks that aren’t the norm–in addition to getting wins at both restrictor plate tracks last season, some of Ricky’s best finishes have came on the short tracks. In fact, from an average finish standpoint, Stenhouse’s best track on the circuit is Bristol Motor Speedway, where he owns an average finish of 10.8 and has posted top 10 finishes in half of his ten career starts there.
Overall Expectations: Over the last few years, Roush-Fenway Racing has consistently fallen off once the summer hits, and a big part of that is their struggles on the 1.5-mile tracks. The Cup Series only stops at two 1.5-milers in the first ten races of the year. This #17 team is pretty solid on both the restrictor plate tracks as well as the short tracks on the schedule, so hopefully they make some additional gains on the intermediates from 2016 to 2017. If they can do that, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Stenhouse one against post career-best numbers in 2018. He wound up with nine top 10 finishes last season. Double digits is well within reach for this #17 team this year.
Can Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. win a Cup Series race in 2018? Yep. In fact, it’d be surprising if Stenhouse wasn’t one of the favorites to win the season-opening Daytona 500 in February. The #17 Ford was on a whole another level at Daytona and Talladega in 2017, and there’s no doubt that Ricky will be strong on those tracks once again this season. As far as getting to victory lane at one of the other tracks on the schedule, though, that’s not very likely. There’s a reason over half of his 100 career laps led in the Cup Series have came at restrictor plate tracks.
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. as a Fantasy Option in 2018
DraftKings: Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. isn’t going to be one of those guys that you consistently go to in DraftKings. As mentioned before, he’s only led 100 total laps in the Cup Series, so he’s not going to get you many fantasy points. Additionally, Stenhouse is a pretty good qualifier and has had a better average starting spot than average finish spot every year since joining NASCAR’s top series. He only had two races with positive place differential at 1.5-mile tracks during the 2018 season.
Season-Long Salary Cap Games: The midseason dropoff of Roush-Fenway Racing is the most concerning thing about Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. in season-long salary cap games. And that’s not an issue that suddenly gets turned around by an organization. With that being said, if you play in a league that allows you to make changes to your team during the season, Stenhouse could be a nice play, depending on his price. There are many games that have him overpriced because of the two wins in 2017.
