“Up and down” doesn’t even begin to describe Kurt Busch’s 2017 season; he started off the year with a victory in “The Great American Race”–the Daytona 500–and ended the year with uncertainty around his status of having a full time ride in 2018. Luckily for Kurt, Monster agreed to come on for at least one more year, so he’ll be piloting the #41 Ford for Stewart-Haas Racing for another year. Despite the win at Daytona, though, Kurt’s 2017 season was pretty disappointing, and a significant step back from where he ran in 2016 and 2015.
Cup Series History
Even though he’s had a handful of off-the-track incidents throughout his career, Kurt Busch’s record in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series speaks for itself. Is he a shoo-in for the Hall of Fame? I wouldn’t go that far, but Kurt is a previous series champion (2004) and has collected 29 total victories over his 17-year career. With that being said, the elder Busch brother can hardly be considered one of the greats, partially because he’s never really been a dominator on the track, and his overall career average finish is 16.6.
Predictions for the Upcoming Season
Looking back at 2017, Kurt Busch had quite a bit of bad luck that helped him fall down to an average finish of 16.5. There were a handful of races where the #41 Ford was up front near the end of the race, but had something happen that relegated Busch to a bad finish on the day. Additionally, Stewart-Haas Racing was dealing with their first season in Fords, which history has shown can cause growing pains for any organization.
Overall Expectations: You can’t take away Kurt Busch’s talent behind the wheel, but you can question whether or not he’s starting to lose his edge. The 2018 season will be Kurt’s 18th full-time season in NASCAR’s top series, and he’s going to turn 40 in August. We all know he’s good for one or two wins a year, but as far as consistently running up front on a week-to-week basis, that’s something Kurt has never really been good at. Overall, I expect Stewart-Haas Racing to have a more consistent year now that they have a full season with Ford under their belt, and Kurt should get back close to his 2016 and 2015 levels of production. I’m expecting top 10 finishes in over half of the races this year with an overall average finish of around 12th.
Can Kurt Busch win a Cup Series race in 2018? It wouldn’t be surprising by any means to see Kurt Busch in victory lane this year. He’s an established racer in NASCAR’s top series, and he’s had just two years without a victory in 17 full-time seasons. It’s also worth noting that in those two winless years, Kurt was driving for Phoenix Racing (terrible equipment) and Furniture Row Racing (before they were good). Busch will probably sneak in a win somewhere during the 2018 season but he’s by no means going to rack up multiple victories.
Kurt Busch as a Fantasy Option in 2018
DraftKings: The bad thing about Kurt Busch in DraftKings is that his name gives him a higher price point than he really should be at. And when you get to a higher price point like that, your driver either needs to get a bunch of place differential FPTS–which, unfortunately Kurt is a good qualifier–or a bunch of dominator points–another area where Busch is lacking. Last year, the #41 Ford only led for 16 laps all season, and he’s led more than 250 laps in just once in the last four years. There will be some races in 2018 where Kurt will be a viable option in DraftKings, but for the most part, he won’t be worth the risk.
Season-Long Salary Cap Games: Kurt Busch is one of those risk-reward evaluations you have to make when it comes to season-long salary cap games. He’s coming off of a down year in 2016, where he averaged a finish of 16.5 after posting numbers of 12.0 and 11.1 in that category in the previous two seasons. Plus, with his status for 2019 still up in the air–and Stewart-Haas Racing seemingly willing to move on if Kurt can’t get a top sponsor–you have to wonder how much that will affect Busch in his 18th Cup Series season. Chances are, he won’t be worth the risk in salary cap games this year.
