We’re already on to race #4 of the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series season, as the teams will head west for the Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway on Sunday. This will kind of be another track type for us to analyze, and kind of not, as Las Vegas is a 1.5-mile venue like Homestead was last weekend, but they are so different in how the races play out and how the tires wear that they’re usually not considered in the same category.
Speaking of Homestead, be sure to check out my recap of that race and what we learned for Fantasy NASCAR (click here), and if you enjoy this FREE content and site, feel free to donate by clicking here. Thank you!
Low-Wear Intermediate Tracks
Last week at Homestead-Miami, we were at what’s considered a “high-wear” track. We saw how important tires were, especially there at the end, as we saw Kurt Busch have to make an unexpected pit stop late and then charge back through the field and back into the top 10, running lap times significantly faster than anyone else on the track.
That’s not going to be the case this weekend in Las Vegas.
Yes, tires are always important, but when we come to these low-wear intermediates, you’re going to see teams gamble a lot more on 2-tire and even no-tire pit stops. Why? Because they can. If there’s a late caution that leaves us with a shootout for the final two or three laps, the track position that you gain by not pitting is going to be much more valuable than new tires–probably. If you’re the only one that doesn’t stop, then you could still be a sitting duck.
This opens the door for some surprise finishers up front when the checkered flag wave. Of course, that’s also kind of reliant on a late caution. If we don’t get late-race yellow on Sunday, then it’s more likely that the fastest cars get the finishes they deserve, or even possible that this race turns into a fuel mileage event. You can never count that out.
Last year at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, there were two races. Joey Logano took the first checkered flag even though Chase Elliott led 70 laps and won the first two Stages and Kevin Harvick led the most laps (92), while Matt DiBenedetto, Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., Austin Dillon, Jimmie Johnson, and Bubba Wallace finished 2nd through 6th. There was a late caution that allowed most of those guys to get up there.
In the fall Playoff race, Kurt Busch grabbed the win with Matt DiBenedetto again coming in 2nd followed by Denny Hamlin in 3rd, Martin Truex, Jr. in 4th, and Alex Bowman in 5th. In that race, Hamlin was the driver with the most laps led (121) while Chase Elliott had another healthy dose of leading (73 laps).
Pre-Race Loop Data Box Score for Las Vegas
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The Favorites
Kevin Harvick – This #4 team was a bit disappointing on speed in the early stages of the Homestead race last weekend, but once the sun went down, their car came to life–presumably just how crew chief Rodney Childers planned it. This weekend at Las Vegas, the teams really won’t have to deal with changing track conditions, and with Kevin Harvick sitting on the pole, there should be no surprise that sports book have him as the favorite heading into the weekend. Over the last four races at this track, Harvick has the best average running position (4.9), the best average finish (6.0), the 2nd-most fastest laps (113), and the 2nd-most laps led (227). The last time Harvick won here at Vegas was back in 2018, when he started 2nd, won both Stages, and led 214 of the 267 laps.
Joey Logano – Can he get three in a row? That’s going to be one of the main stories this weekend, as Joey Logano will look to make it back to back to back wins here at Las Vegas in the spring race. And honestly, it wouldn’t be too surprising. The Penske cars always perform really well here in Sin City, and over the last ten races at this track Logano has just one result outside of the top 10. He also has six finishes of 4th or better during that span. Joey opened at 8-to-1 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook which isn’t good enough value for me to bet him, but he’s a solid fantasy option nonetheless.
Kyle Larson – The two intermediate track that Kyle Larson was really solid at before his suspension were Chicagoland and Las Vegas. And now–remember, you’re going to hear this narrative a lot this year–he’s in the best equipment he’s had. I’ll gladly put a small bet on him at 10-to-1 to win on Sunday, especially considering this #5 Chevrolet has been a race contender the last two weeks (yes, I’m counting the Daytona Road Course). Larson is going to win soon, I can almost guarantee that. Here at Vegas, Kyle has six straight finishes of 12th or better and three of those were also top 3 results. Hendrick Motorsports was strong on the intermediate tracks last year, and might end up being even better this season.
Underdogs
Alex Bowman – The driver of the #88 Chevrolet opened at 18-to-1 odds, which is a pretty solid value considering AB had the 3rd-best average running position on low-wear 1.5-mile tracks last season. He also led the 2nd-most laps and had the 5th-most fastest laps. The thing that plagued this #88 team in 2020, though, was that they seemed to constantly fall apart in the second half of races, especially early on in the year. Once the Playoffs came around, though, Bowman finished 5th here at Las Vegas, 3rd at Kansas, and 5th at Texas.
William Byron – Two of the Hendrick drivers, Alex Bowman and William Byron, are at 18-to-1 odds to win this weekend, but both might actually have a solid shot. William Byron has had some awful luck on intermediate tracks during his young Cup Series career, but we saw last weekend what can happen when the #24 team puts a full race together. Here at Las Vegas, Willy B actually has some pretty impressive stats over the last two years; he ranks 7th-best in fastest laps (56) and has the 6th-best average running position (10.8). Be also has five top 10 Stage finishes in the last six Stages. His race finishes, though? 25th, 22nd, 7th, and 16th. He’s much better than those show, though.
Austin Dillon – This is the underdog section, so let’s talk about this 40-to-1 driver. Austin Dillon was actually one of the most consistent drivers on 1.5-mile tracks last season, averaging a finish of 13.6, which was 11th-best in the series. He also had an average running position of 12.8 on this track type in 2020, which was 13th-best in the series. Here at Vegas, Austin has five finishes of 13th or better in his last eight starts, including a career-best 4th in this race last year. Do I think he will win? No, but I didn’t think that at Texas last year either. That’s why we call them underdogs!
Las Vegas Pennzoil 400 Betting Odds
As of Tuesday evening, DraftKings Sportsbook had the following odds listed to win the Pennzoil 400.
- Kevin Harvick +600
- Martin Truex, Jr. +650
- Chase Elliott +800
- Brad Keselowski +800
- Joey Logano +800
- Denny Hamlin +900
- Kyle Larson +1000
- Ryan Blaney +1300
- Kyle Busch +1300
- Alex Bowman +1800
- Kurt Busch +1800
- William Byron +1800
- Christopher Bell +3300
- Aric Almirola +4000
- Austin Dillon +4000
- Matt DiBenedetto +5000
- Tyler Reddick +5000
- Cole Custer +6600
- Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. +6600
- Chase Briscoe +8000
- Chris Buescher +8000
- Bubba Wallace +8000
- Ryan Newman +10000
- Michael McDowell +12500
- Ross Chastain +15000
- Erik Jones +15000
- Daniel Suarez +25000
- Ryan Preece +50000
- Corey LaJoie +75000
- Anthony Alfredo +75000
- Justin Haley +100000
- Joey Gase +150000
- Quin Houff +150000
- BJ McLeod +150000
- Garrett Smithley +150000
- Josh Bilicki +150000
- Cody Ware +150000
- Timmy Hill +150000
