We have another high wear race track this weekend in Homestead-Miami Speedway. Typically, this track hosts the final race of the season, but we get a mid-summer race here today for the first time ever. As far as similar tracks, Atlanta last week is a great comparison, as are the two Darlington races. Now let’s get to the bets!

The bets listed below are ones that I have already placed via the DraftKings Sportsbook, with the odds posted.

My Top Bets for the Homestead Dixie Vodka 400

Martin Truex, Jr. in Garage at Daytona
Photo Credit: Matt Sullivan/Getty Images

Kevin Harvick to win (+500) – It’s not very often that a driver is such a favorite according to my algorithm (click here to see), so when it does happen, I usually bet that driver to win. Kevin Harvick cruised to victory lane at Atlanta last week, and he also dominated the first Darlington race this year. Looking at other 1.5-mile tracks, Harvick also put up 38.5 DraftKings dominator FPTS at Las Vegas and 34.25 dominator FPTS in the second Charlotte race. Here at Homestead, Harvick has only one win (back in 2014) but he’s on an incredible streak of six straight top 4 finishes here, along with twelve straight top 10s. DraftKings Sports Book is also offering “podium insurance,” so if your driver bet to win finishes top 3, you get your bet back. It’s hard to imagine Harvick not finishing top 3 today unless, of course, he has mechanical issues or something.

Erik Jones Top 10 Finish (+130) – I love this bet. Darlington is probably Erik Jones’ best track on the schedule, and this year he came home 5th and 8th in the two races there. Here at Homestead, Jones struggled in his first few attempts, but finished 3rd here last November. He also came home 10th at Fontana earlier this year, which is another high wear track. Obviously Erik Jones has a history of being hit or miss in races, but if he doesn’t have any mechanical or pit road issues today at Homestead, I think he’s going to have a great race.

Martin Truex, Jr. to Win Stage One (+700) – Homestead has always been a great track for Martin Truex, Jr., even early on in his career when he was in under-funded equipment. Now that he has the top notch stuff, he ‘s a consistent threat to win, and in the last three races here he’s finished 2nd, 2nd, and 1st. Truex is also coming off of a great race at Atlanta last week, where he had the best Green Flag Speed and posted 42.75 DraftKings dominator FPTS, and this #19 team also went to victory lane Wednesday night at Martinsville. Truex rolls off 6th here today, so he’s got the preferred outside lane to start with, and he’s also got that #1 pit stall to help him get out front.

Other bets added to my card:

  • Erik Jones Top 5 Finish (+500) … See notes above on Jones.
As someone who has always been obsessed with numbers, Fantasy NASCAR has been the perfect fit with me. I pride myself on the quality of my analysis for each race, and am glad that I have been able to help others along the way. I've been a serious Fantasy NASCAR player for over 10 years now, and I'm just getting started.