NASCAR’s double-header weekend at Dover International Speedway kicks off this afternoon, and if this race plays out like Saturday’s event did, we should expect to see the exact same drivers up front by the end of it. There were very few wrecks or pit road mistakes in Saturday’s Drydene 311, and there were about seven cars that were clearly better than everyone else in the field. The speed among the top three was also significantly higher than the others in that race. The Cup teams are using the exact same cars for Sunday’s race, and the only disadvantage yesterday’s contenders have is that they’re all starting mid-pack. They have 311 laps to get to the front, though.
The bets listed below are ones that I have already placed via the DraftKings Sportsbook, with the odds posted.
My Top Bets for the Drydene 311 at Dover (Sunday)
Chase Elliott to Finish Top 5 (+110) – For Saturday’s race, I deviated away from my normal strategy of mostly playing DraftKings lineups and instead shifted about half of that money to betting on the race. I dumped most of that on Denny Hamlin to Finish Top 5 (-106) and, well, we all know how that played out. I’m following a similar strategy here today, but not putting as much down on Chase Elliott to finish inside the top 5. This #9 Chevrolet was a rocketship on Saturday up until that damage from Clint Bowyer occurred, and even after that, the car was one of the fastest in the field once the #9 crew fixed that damage. Chase Elliott at Dover is as close to a lock as you can get, as he has top 5 finishes in seven of his nine career Cup Series starts here. Getting plus-money odds for him here is a bet I’ll make ten out of ten times. My only concern here is if, for some reason, the #9 team goes to a backup car or makes unapproved adjustments and has to start at the rear today. I probably should’ve waited to place this bet until that information was announced but YOLO.
Aric Almirola Stage 1 Winner (+1400) – What’s going to be interesting for DFS and betting purposes this afternoon is how Stage 1 shakes out. Track position is so important here at Dover that it’s very possible Matt DiBenedetto leads the entire way and takes the first green-checkered flag. He’s actually the favorite to do so on DraftKings Sports Book at +600 odds. But honestly, I think the best car starting inside the top 5 is Aric Almirola’s #10 Ford. He was top 10 good here on Saturday before a loose wheel put them multiple laps down, and Almirola was still able to rally for a 17th-place finish. Also, another reason I like this bet, looking at the other invert races this season, Stewart-Haas used good starting track position in the second Darlington and Michigan races to get the first Stage win–both completed by Bowyer–and in three of the four double-header events, the winner of Stage 1 started 4th or better. That’s where Aric starts on Sunday. This is my smallest bet on my card but I love the 14-to-1 value here.
Aric Almirola Top 10 Finish (+105) – The last four races have been tough for Aric Almirola but this is still the same driver that has ten finishes of 10th or better in the last 13 races overall. Also, the #10 team is at their best when they have track position to start the race. If you read the bet above, you already know why I like AA to come out of the gates strong on Sunday, and I fully expect him to continue that pace throughout the 311 miles. For what it’s worth, my algorithm projects him to finish 10th today.