The Dixie Vodka 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway is the next race on the schedule for the NASCAR Cup Series and DraftKings Sportsbook has its opening lines available for the race.
And let me tell you, there is some major value available.
Homestead is the first “normal” race of the season–well, at least what we were used to on the schedule from years past–as we have gone from the superspeedway at Daytona to the Road Course at Daytona over the last couple of weeks. There shouldn’t be any major up pileup crashes at Homestead like we saw in the Daytona 500, and it’s unlikely this race will be as wild as the road course event was on Sunday. So let’s get to these bets:
Kyle Larson to Win (+1400)
This value won’t last long. Kyle Larson has been one of the best drivers at Homestead-Miami Speedway since he joined the Cup Series back in 2013, but he was never able to close out a win here. One reason for that? This track was always the Championship race when Larson was driving, and almost every year, the Champion would win this race. It was like clockwork. This time around, the only Championship implications the Homestead race has is a potential Playoff spot guarantee for the winner (assuming Christopher Bell or Michael McDowell, who are already locked in, do not win).
The second reason Larson was never able to win here? His equipment. Now this is a bit subjective, but we can all agree that Chip Ganassi Racing wasn’t and still isn’t at the top tier of NASCAR when it comes to equipment. This time around, Kyle Larson is in his Hendrick Motorsports ride, which has emerged as once again one of the best over the last few years. Just last season, Chase Elliott finished 2nd in his Hendrick car here at Homestead, with William Byron coming home 9th in that race.
Larson’s odds to win will almost surely go down under 10-to-1 once people start hammering him at this price. Get in while you can.
EDIT: Soon after this was posted, DraftKings Sportsbook lowered Larson’s odds down to +1000.
Tyler Reddick to Win (+2800)
Tyler Reddick will be starting deep in the pack on Sunday thanks to two bad finishes to start off the 2021 season, but he should be up running with the leaders in no time at all. Here at Homestead last year, Reddick started 24th and was quickly inside the top 5 and pretty much ran there all race. He finished 3rd in Stage 1, 2nd in Stage 2, and then was 4th when the checkered flag waved at the end.
Reddick loves to ride the wall–as does Larson–and that’s the fastest way around Homestead-Miami Speedway. As far as equipment goes, Reddick isn’t in a top ride like Larson is, but if he has position late here on Sunday, he has a chance to win this race. Getting him at 28-to-1 odds is great value, and once top 3/top 5/top 10 lines come out, he should be a great betting value there as well.
