Alright, it’s time to get back on the plus side this season! We’re in Las Vegas for the Pennzoil 400 on Sunday so there’s no better place to try and get back on track than Sin City, right!? After last week’s race at Homestead, the Best Bets are now 6-8 on the year with a total of -1.77u so far. Long season, though, we just need to get into our groove. I’m feeling pretty confident about the Hendrick cars this weekend so let’s get in to the Best Bets for Las Vegas!!
Top Bets for Las Vegas
3u on Chase Elliott Top 5 Finish (+140) – I should probably start out this section on Chase Elliott with a warning: I’m going all in on the defending champion this weekend. See my tweet below. To win, to finish top 3, to finish top 5, to win the Stages… All. In. And there is also something I call the #JordanJinx that has plagued drivers I bet on to win a race. That’s why my best bet listed here is for a top 5 finish. Chase had great cars in both Las Vegas races last season. In the spring, he led 70 laps, won both Stages, but ultimately finished 26th due to a tire issue. In the fall, he led 73 laps, finished 4th and 1st in the two Stages, but ultimately finished 22nd due to an ill-timed caution. Elliott is one of the best at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, he just needs some luck on his side. I think he gets that this weekend.
2.5u on Alex Bowman Top 10 Finish (-125) – Sticking with on Alex Bowman this week, and honestly Hendrick Motorsports in general. He saved me at Homestead last week from having an incredibly disastrous week, so I’m not going to stop trusting him now. Looking at last year’s numbers on “low-wear” intermediate tracks, Bowman was great, with an average running position of 8.7 (which was 3rd-best) but he had trouble finishing some races, which put his average result at 14.9. Here at Vegas, Alex has the 5th-best average running position (9.9) with this package and 5th-best average finish as well (8.8). I also have a bet on him to finish top 5 (+275) but the official Best Bet for the week is to finish top 10 (-125).
1u on Kyle Larson Top 5 Finish (+165) – Sticking with Hendrick Motorsports here again. I honestly think Kyle Larson can be a contender to win this race on Sunday, and he has the longest odds for a top 5 finish of the five drivers predicted by my algorithm to finish up there. Larson was good at Vegas before he was in a Hendrick car and has three top 5 finishes in his last six starts at this track. He also has five top 3 Stage finishes to his credit over the last six races here. Larson rolls off the grid from 3rd here on Sunday and should have a great car to work with all afternoon. The Hendrick cars were all fast here at Las Vegas last season (and at most intermediate tracks).