The 2021 NASCAR Cup Series season continues trucking along, as we now shift our focus on to Phoenix Raceway and the Instacart 500 on Sunday. Using NASCAR’s qualifying formula, I’m projecting Brad Keselowski to be on the pole with Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, and Martin Truex, Jr. filling out the top 5 in the starting order.

DraftKings Sportsbook posted its opening lines to win Sunday’s race earlier this morning as well, with Chase Elliott the early favorite at 5-to-1 while Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick are both at 6-to-1.

Early Bet To Lock In: Kyle Larson to Win (+1000)

Yeah, I’m going to go ahead and lock this one in while I can, as I fully expect Larson to end up around 8-to-1 (or shorter) odds by the weekend. We’re beating a dead horse here, but Kyle Larson is in the best equipment of his career. He should perform better everywhere, and using that logic, that means he’s going to perform great at the tracks he’s already good with. How is Larson at Phoenix? Well, let’s look:

4th last spring
4th in the 2019 fall race
6th in the 2019 spring race
3rd in the 2018 fall race

The driver that hasn’t finished worse than 6th in his last four starts at this track has just the 7th-best odds to win according to the sportsbook. Yeah, there’s value there.

Not to mention, the only other time that Larson started on the front row here at Phoenix was back in 2018, when he started 2nd and led 54 laps before his car just went to junk. That shouldn’t happen with Hendrick equipment.

Only four races into the 2021 season and Hendrick Motorsports should have three wins already. They’ve had the best cars–by a good margin–in the last three. Oh, and don’t forget that Chase Elliott dominated here at Phoenix last November despite starting in the rear of the field. This race on Sunday could easily come down to Chase and Kyle for the win. Grabbing Larson at 10/1 to win back-to-back is a great value, in my opinion, and I’m personally heading out the door now to go lock it in.

As someone who has always been obsessed with numbers, Fantasy NASCAR has been the perfect fit with me. I pride myself on the quality of my analysis for each race, and am glad that I have been able to help others along the way. I've been a serious Fantasy NASCAR player for over 10 years now, and I'm just getting started.