This whole Jordan Jinx really needs to be tracked. If I get some free time soon, I’ll do just that.
So a couple of weeks ago at Las Vegas, the Jordan Jinx struck Chase Elliott and Alex Bowman. Last week the victim was Kyle Larson, who not only failed pre-race inspection and had to start from the rear, but also got two speeding penalties during the race. Without those two penalties, though, there’s no doubt Larson would have been a contender in the desert.
But hey, at least I warned you.
This week, we’re on to Atlanta Motor Speedway, and I must say, the initial betting lines look awful. As of Thursday evening, there was not a single bet that I absolutely loved, but if I do land on one or two as the weekend progresses, I’ll definitely add those to this post. For now, I just have a couple of bets I like heading into the weekend.
Need a tool to find an edge on head-to-head betting matchups? Be sure to check out my algorithm predicted finishing order for Sunday’s race by clicking here! Also, if you enjoy this site and everything it has to offer, consider supporting by donating here.
Top Bets for Phoenix
2u on Martin Truex, Jr. Top 5 Finish (+100) – My algorithm has Martin Truex, Jr. predicted to win this race, and nearly a full 7 points above the 6th-place predicted finisher in the Power Index. I’ll take the even money here and run. Truex has been strong not only here at Atlanta but also on “high-wear” tracks in general. Over the last two years, nobody has a better average running position or better average finish than Truex at Atlanta Motor Speedway, and in the six “high-wear” intermediate races last season, only Denny Hamlin and Chase Elliott had better average running positions than this #19 Toyota. At Homestead a few weeks ago–which is the track that compares really well to Atlanta–Truex had the 4th-fastest Green Flag Speed and the 3rd-best average running position.
1u on Kyle Larson Top 5 Finish (+100) – Fun fact: Kyle Larson has only one top 5 finish at Atlanta Motor Speedway in six career Cup Series starts. Another fun fact: that doesn’t bother me at all. This #5 team is starting to find their groove already and Kyle Larson has been the fastest car by a good margin over the last three races combined. Here at Atlanta, Larson finished 2nd in 2017, and when we last raced here (in 2019) he led 142 laps and finished 1st and 2nd in the two Stages before a speeding penalty relegated him to a 12th-place finish. At Homestead this year, Larson had the 2nd-best average running position and ranked 5th in Green Flag Speed. Only a mechanical issue or another speeding penalty will keep Kyle Larson from contending here at Atlanta on Sunday.