We’re at Nashville Superspeedway this weekend–which, by the way, not sure why they called a 1.33-mile concrete oval a superspeedway but anyway–and it’s looking like a Hendrick domination day again. The last concrete track we visited was Dover and Hendrick Motorsports finished 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th, and after Saturday’s practice session here at Nashville, it wouldn’t surprise anyone if that happened again today. There’s still some great value out there in the betting world, though, so let’s get to my card for the day.
P.S. I asked Link what he thought about my betting card today and this was his reaction, so you know it’s going to be a good day.
Nashville Race Day Betting Card
Martin Truex, Jr. to Win (+900 and +1200) – I loved Martin Truex, Jr. before practice at 9-to-1 odds because he’s been one of the best in this 750hp package this season. Then we had practice on Saturday and Joe Gibbs Racing (and Truex in particular) looked like dog shit, and his odds jumped up to 12-to-1. While I am quite concerned about the Gibbs speed (and how much they struggled at Dover earlier this year), I’m not passing up Truex at these odds, and I’m not getting too hyped up about a 50-minute practice. Gibbs has the fastest pit crews in the series and track position is going to be king today.
Big Bet Of The Day
Joey Logano Top 5 Finish (+195) – Logano is tied for the 4th-best average running position with the 750hp package this year and has an average finish of 6.5 with it as well, including a 5th-place run at Dover. Additionally, this #22 team is quietly getting on a bit of a hot streak, with four top 5 finishes in the last five races (including the All Star event). Finally, Logano has been a rockstar on the “new” tracks this season, and could surprise people today in Nashville for sure.
William Byron to Win (+1200) – Just a #SaltBae sprinkle bet on here but how can you pass up 12-to-1 odds with a Hendrick car right now, especially the one that was tied on top of the speed chart in the only practice session this weekend? In the 750hp package this season, Willy B has the 4th-best average finish and 4th-best average running position, and when you take away the Daytona 500 and road course races this year, his average finish on the season is 5.4. This #24 Chevrolet is fast enough to win today; Byron just needs the track position late.
Joey Logano to Win (+1600) – See notes on JoLo above. This is another #SaltBae sprinkle bet, so nothing major.
Alex Bowman to Win (+1700) – If I like a Hendrick car at 12-to-1 odds, then I love a Hendrick car at 17-to-1 odds. FanDuel Sportsbook never adjusted Alex Bowman down after practice on Saturday, which kind of makes sense considering he wasn’t blazing fast like the rest, but don’t forget that that is typically the case with this #48 team. And then they show up halfway through the race–like they did when they won at Dover, which is the other concrete track on the schedule. I actually hammered Bowman at +1700 twice this weekend.
Rest of the Card
William Byron Top 3 Finish (+320) – Love the value here. Again, FanDuel Sportsbook never adjusted so I grabbed this on Sunday morning.
Alex Bowman Top 3 Finish (+370) – “The Showman” isn’t going to fully break my heart by pulling a PJ Walsh special and finishing second this week.
Ross Chastain to Win Group (+390) – The others in this group are Austin Dillon, Kurt Busch, and Matt DiBenedetto. Look: Ross Chastain not only ran the Truck race this weekend but also looked really strong in practice on Saturday. Also, I’m liking how fast this #42 Chevrolet has been lately. After practice on Saturday, DraftKings Sportsbook listed Chastain as the favorite for this same group at +140, but, again, FanDuel Sportsbook didn’t adjust and still had him at +390.