The NASCAR Cup Series is at Road America today for the Jockey Made in America 250. This is the first time the Cup Series has been at this track since 1956, so if anybody tells you exactly what to expect in today’s race, you can go ahead and call him/her a liar. “The Big Three” on road courses–Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, and Martin Truex, Jr.–are the favorites heading into the race despite not blowing anybody away in practice, but with attrition potentially coming into play, we could definitely see a whacky race and a surprise winner. Translation: there’s a lot of value on the betting board today.
Road America Race Day Betting Card
Austin Cindric to Win (+5000) – The #JordanJinx actually hasn’t been too awful as of late, but with how many bets I have on Austin Cindric this weekend, it might be a bit overload. DraftKings Sportsbook opened Cindric to win at 50-to-1 odds late on Monday night, and by Tuesday it was down to 40-to-1. After practice on Saturday, he’s down to 18-to-1 on that book. So in addition to grabbing Cindric to win at +5000, I also grabbed him at +4700 to win on FanDuel Sportsbook and then bet him as the qualifying winner (+850), for a top 3 finish (+1200), for a top 5 finish (+425), and for a top 10 finish (+140). He’s one of the better road course racers in the field, he just needs a little luck.
Favorite Bet of the Day
Michael McDowell Top 10 Finish (+325) – This isn’t my biggest bet, but this is my favorite bet of the day. Michael McDowell is a strong road course racer, and he’s finished 8th, 7th, and 28th in the three races on this track type in 2021. Oh, and that 28th-place finish was at Sonoma, where he spun out on the last lap while running inside the top 10. Going back to pre-2021 road course races, McDowell’s four previous starts ended with him in 32nd, 10th, 12th, and 16th. Here at Road America, McDowell actually has a win and a 2nd-place finish to his credit in the Xfinity Series, so I love the +325 value for a top 10 for him here on Sunday. I also put a small bet on McDowell for a top 5 finish at +1000 as well.
AJ Allmendinger to Win (+2500) – Not many drivers have extensive experience with the Road America race track. That could definitely cause us to see a surprise winner in today’s race. Allmendinger is always a threat to win at a road course as long as his equipment doesn’t break due to his aggressive driving. He finished 7th at the Daytona Road Course earlier this year and 5th at Circuit of the Americas in May. I also have Allmendinger for a top 3 finish (+650), as the qualifying winner (+1400), and as the Group Winner (+410) against Logano, Hamlin, and Byron.
Denny Hamlin to Win (+1900) – James Dennis Alan Hamlin hasn’t won at a road course since the 2016 season–and that win at Watkins Glen is actually his only victory in all 36 of his Cup Series starts on this track type–but 19-to-1 odds for a driver that is a constant top 5 threat on these tracks is a great value.
Kyle Busch to Win (+1200) – Yes, he has to start in the rear today no matter where he qualifies, but Kyle Busch is coming off of a win here at Road America on Saturday in the Xfinity Series, and that extra track time definitely isn’t going to hurt him on Sunday. Also, the #18 Toyota was the fastest in Cup Series practice on Saturday before Rowdy destroyed the car. “Traditional” road courses are where Kyle Busch shines, as he has two wins at both Sonoma and Watkins Glen (as well as 12 career top 5 finishes between the two tracks). I also bet Kyle Busch at +165 for a top 5 finish today.
Ross Chastain Top 10 Finish (+210) – The #42 team continues to bring strong race cars to the track, and Chastain has been running solidly inside the top 10 in most races except for the ones where he gets too aggressive. He has finished of 7th and 4th in the last two road course races this season and was 13th-fastest in practice on Saturday.
Tyler Reddick to Win Qualifying (+2200) – Reddick surprised a lot of us at Circuit of the Americas with his pole run, and I see no reason why he can’t do the same thing here at Road America on Sunday. At 22-to-1 odds it’s worth a #SaltBae sprinkle or two. Reddick was 5th-fastest in practice on Saturday.
Sunday Afternoon Adds
If there’s enough time, and there’s any line movement that I like, I will tweet out any bets that I may add after qualifying, and then embed the tweet in this post.