New Hampshire Motor Speedway is the site of this weekend’s NASCAR Cup Series race, as the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 is set to take place on Sunday afternoon. This will be the last race before we get two weekends off for the Olympics, and I don’t know whether it’s because of the upcoming break, or because the betting board looked so juicy this weekend, but I’ve already put in quite a few bets for this weekend’s race and it’s only Thursday as I’m typing this. So let’s get right to the card!
Loudon Race Day Betting Card
Denny Hamlin to Win (+850) – PointsBet was one of the first books to come out with betting odds this week, and they were a bit off from where they should’ve been, particularly with Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex, Jr.–both of which I grabbed. Hamlin was the first one bet on, though, so he’s the #JordanJinx for New Hampshire on Sunday. Dennis may not have any wins this season, but he’s going to be a contender here at Loudon on Sunday. Over the last five races at short, flat tracks, Hamlin has four finishes of 4th or better, including runner-up finishes here at Loudon last season as well as Richmond this season. This #11 team needs to win if they want to have a safety net of any type in the Playoffs this year. I think there’s a good shot that happens on Sunday.
Favorite Bet of the Week
Aric Almirola Top 20 Finish (-135) – This line isn’t even close to available anymore but I’ll just use this as a quick, shameless plug for you to follow me on Twitter if you’re not already. Any time I see a line like this I tweet it out immediately as a good bet. Not even 15 minutes after I tweeted this, the line for Almirola getting top 20 finish moved to -300. So, follow me if you don’t already. Anyway, my algorithm loves Almirola this week and he hasn’t finished worse than 13th at a shorter, flat track over the last year and a half. There’s still a tiny bit of value in betting him at -300, but I probably wouldn’t bet it again unless it went to -225 or longer. I also like betting the Aric Almirola over Ross Chastain (-110) head-to-head.
Rest of Jordan’s Card
Martin Truex, Jr. to Win (+850) – As I said with Hamlin earlier, I just couldn’t pass up these odds with Martin Truex, Jr. Both of these drivers are very solid short, flat track racers, and Truex has finished 5th or better in four of the last five Cup Series races at this track type, with the only exception being a 10th-place run at Phoenix last fall. My algorithm says Truex is the guy to beat on Sunday, and I’m going to roll with that prediction at +850 as well.
Kevin Harvick Top 10 Finish (-165) – My biggest bet as of now is the Almirola top 20 finish, but there’s a good chance that this Harvick top 10 finish bet will end up being my largest this weekend. Yes, Stewart-Haas Racing has struggled this season, but they haven’t struggled as much on the shorter flat tracks. Since the start of 2020, Harvick has finished 2nd, 7th, 5th, 7th, 6th, and 24th on this track type, with the only exception being at Richmond, although he was running 6th before he ran into issues. Here at Loudon, Harvick has finished 5th or better in eight of his last ten starts. There’s no such thing as a lock in betting but this is close.
Kevin Harvick over Alex Bowman (-110) – The algorithm has Harvick solidly above Alex Bowman this weekend, and even though AB came home with a surprise win at Richmond this year, his previous best finish on this track type since the start of 2020 was a 9th in last year’s Richmond race. Other than that, Bowman is typically a mid-teens driver at the shorter flat tracks. Here at Loudon, he’s finished 15th, 14th, 11th, and 14th in his last four starts. Give me Harvick all day here.
Kevin Harvick over William Byron (-110) – Similar story for this head-to-head as the one with Bowman. When it comes to the shorter flat tracks, William Byron hasn’t quite shown the top 5 potential that he typically has at other race tracks on the schedule. With that being said, Willy B has improved with each new time has came to Loudon–he finished 14th in 2018, then 12th in 2019, and then 11th last year–and he’s ended up 8th and 7th in the two shorter flat track races this year. My bet for this head-to-head isn’t as large as the Harvick/Bowman one, but I still like this.
Christopher Bell Top 10 Finish (-110) – Oh, yes. I wouldn’t even mind sprinkling some on Christopher Bell for a top 5 finish this weekend, and I will note that I put a tiny bit on him to win at +3400 as well. But the top 10 prop is a really good bet here. Bell was a solid top 5 car here at Loudon last season when he was driving for Leavine Family Racing, and he dominated New Hampshire Motor Speedway in the Xfinity Series. This year, now that he’s finally is really good equipment, Bell has finished 9th at 4th at the two shorter flat tracks. He starts 9th on Sunday and unless he has some kind of issue during the race, should be good for a top 10.
Joey Logano over Chase Elliott (+100) – Again, I’m trusting the algorithm here. Joey Logano is ranked 3rd by the algorithm this weekend with a Power Index of 39.06, while Chase Elliott is ranked 10th with a Power Index of 28.62. So obviously getting Logano at even-money odds in this head-to-head seems to be of great value. Chase has one top 5 finish here at Loudon in seven career starts while Logano has two wins and has been as solid as they come at shorter flat tracks over the last two seasons.