We’re off to Bristol Motor Speedway this weekend for the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race. There are 500 laps scheduled around this half-mile bullring, under the lights, with a lot on the line for Playoff drivers on the bubble. It’s bound to be a great race to say the least.
Last week at Richmond, I constantly noted how predictable the races can be at that track, and my betting card was larger than usual. It also absolutely crushed once again (you really thought I wouldn’t toot my own horn?). This week at Bristol, though, the race can turn upside down for a driver very quickly, and from a betting perspective, I don’t particularly like how crazy this track can get. Therefore, I’m sticking to a smaller card for Bristol–and smaller bet amounts than usual–and rolling off into Las Vegas next weekend. I still have some bets I like this weekend, though.
Bristol Betting Card
Kyle Larson to Win (+750) – You may be asking, “how in the world did you get Kyle Larson at +750?” Well, as I’ve mentioned before, you have to take advantage of boosts when you get them. Caesars was offering a 50% profit boost this week, so it boosted Larson from +500 to +750 to win. I also grabbed Larson at +600 earlier in the week on BetRivers. Make sure you’re paying attention to early lines and my Twitter feed because the great value doesn’t last long. Anyway, Larson has never won at Bristol but he’s always been really, really good here. Take this statistic: over the last six races of relevant Bristol data (2020, 2018, and 2017), Kyle Larson has the 2nd-most fastest laps…and he missed both races in 2020. My algorithm really likes Larson this week and this +750 value was too good to pass up.
Favorite Bet of the Week
Daniel Suarez Top 20 Finish (-150) – If you know me at all, you know that I’m not a big fan of Daniel Suarez. In fact, he’s one of two drivers that I dislike that have me blocked on Twitter. But anyway, I had to smash this top 20 bet with Suarez for Saturday night because here’s the thing: he’s actually pretty good at Bristol Motor Speedway, and on steep tracks in general. Suarez has finished inside the top 20 in seven of his eight starts here in “Thunder Valley,” even ending up 18th with that junk Gaunt Brothers car last season. This year, the #99 Chevrolet finished 9th at Dover and inside the top 15 in three of the four races on steep ovals.
Rest of Jordan’s Card
Ryan Preece Top 20 Finish (+160) – Considering Ryan Preece has only finished inside the top 20 in 10 of the 28 races this season (35.7%), this bet might not seem like a great one at first glance, but Bristol is a different animal–and Ryan Preece has done a good job of taming the beast (at least when it comes to expectations of Preece). In four starts here in “Thunder Valley,” Preece has an average finish of 15.4, and in the two races last year he ended up 12th and 9th. Am I expecting that to happen again on Saturday night? Absolutely not. Is it possible? Yes it is. Preece also finished 18th at Dover this year, which is the track I’m using the most as a comparable option for Bristol.
Chase Elliott Top 5 Finish (+115) – My algorithm has Chase Elliott projected to finish 2nd on Saturday night behind his teammate Kyle Larson, so it’s probably worth throwing some coin down on Chase as the outright winner, too, but my favorite bet including last year’s Cup Series Champion is this top 5 prop at +115 odds. You have to jump over to BetRivers to grab it (DraftKings Sportsbook has it at +100) but it’s great value and reminds me of the Logano top 5 bet at Richmond last weekend at +110. Chase has finished 7th, 5th, and 3rd in the last three Bristol night races and also ended up 3rd at Dover earlier this year.
Chase Elliott to Win (+850) – Yep… as I said a little bit ago, worth throwing down some coin here. Also, if you don’t want to use that 50% Caesars profit boost on Larson, you can get Elliott at +1050 over there.
Kurt Busch (-104) over Martin Truex, Jr. – It was quite surprising to see Martin Truex, Jr. be the favorite in this head-to-head. Here’s the thing about MTJ at Bristol: he’s not very good. Has he had fast cars and a couple of good runs in the past? Yes he has. Is he on the pole this weekend, which gives him great track position to start and a good pit stall? Yes he is. But has he ever really gotten the finishes at Bristol? Hard no. Only three times in thirty career starts (10%) has Martin Truex, Jr. finished inside the top 10 at this race track, and only once since 2012. Kurt Busch, on the other hand, has five top 10s in the last seven Bristol races and is a six-time winner here–and I wouldn’t be surprised if he challenges for a seventh win on Saturday night with as fast as those Chip Ganassi cars have been lately.