We’re at Kansas Speedway for the Hollywood Casino 400 this weekend, and there’s good and bad news that comes along with that. First, the good: Kansas is very similar to Texas, where we raced last weekend and the betting card absolutely crushed (see tweet below). That means we’re looking, pretty much, at the same drivers up front. The bad news? Sportsbooks have gotten sharper with these back-to-back “low-wear” 1.5-mile track races. As of mid-week, there wasn’t a ton of value to bet on out there, so this is looking like the race to focus on just a few bets and move on to next week, but we’ll see what happens as the weekend progresses.
Need to find an edge on Head-to-Head betting matchups this week? Take a look at the Algorithm Predicted Finishing Order for Sunday’s race and find those slam dunk bets.
Betting Card for the Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas
Kyle Busch to Win (+1000) – Tail. With. Caution. Not only does Kyle Busch have the #JordanJinx on him this weekend for the Kansas Playoff race, but he’s also #DocBlocked by RotoDoc. If PJ Walsh of Action Network jumps on this as well, Rowdy might not even make it past the pace laps on Sunday. But with all kidding aside (and some seriousness…) getting Kyle Busch here at 10-to-1 odds is an incredible value, especially considering he won here at Kansas back in May and has finished 3rd or better in all but one of the “low-wear” 1.5-mile tracks this season. The books quickly adjusted after Rowdy opened at 10-to-1 on PointsBet but there’s still some value out there. I’d still bet Kyle Busch as short as +750 on Sunday.
Favorite Bet of the Week
Daniel Suarez (+100) over Ross Chastain – You know there’s value here if I’m betting on Daniel f’n Suarez. The wrong driver is favored in this matchup. Ross Chastain has been beyond awful in almost all “low-wear” 1.5-mile track races this season, with an average finish of 25.0 and an average running position of 25.4. On the other hand, Suarez has been consistent, with an average finish of 15.4 and an average running position of 19.2. Head-to-head, Suarez is 4-1 against Chastain at “low-wear” 1.5-mile tracks this year and 8-3 in the 550hp package.
Rest of Jordan’s Card
Kyle Busch Top 5 Finish (+106) – I loved Kyle Busch at even money for a top 5 finish at Texas last weekend, so why wouldn’t I love him at +106 for that same result this weekend? Yes, Rowdy disappointed in the Lone Star State a week ago, but this Kansas race should be a good bounce back for Joe Gibbs Racing. In the five “low-wear” 1.5-mile track races this season, Busch hasn’t finished worse than 8th and has ended up 3rd or better in four of the five. In the 550hp package, Rowdy is a perfect 11-for-11 finishing inside the top 10, and eight of those were also top 5s. This generous top 5 line is available at BetMGM.
William Byron Top Chevy (+600) – This bet is just a #SaltBae sprinkle, but there’s value here at 6-to-1. This season on the “low-wear” 1.5-mile tracks, William Byron has the 2nd-best average running position (6.2) and the 2nd-most fastest laps as well (177). Both of those are behind Kyle Larson’s ridiculous numbers (3.1 and 340, respectively). Obviously Larson is the most likely Top Chevy driver here on Sunday, but anything can happen at the end of these races–just look at the last Kansas race.
Keep an eye on my Twitter feed as well as this post as the weekend goes on. As I said before, there’s not a lot of value out there to bet on for Sunday’s race at Kansas, but as more books post additional lines, I may be able to find something, and I’ll update if I do.