We’re on to the final race of the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series season, with the Season Finale 500 at Phoenix Raceway on Sunday. All eyes will be on the four Championship drivers, as the real prize here is the title that those four are chasing. As RotoDoc and I discussed on Stacking Dennys this week, never once has the Championship winner not also won the race with this Playoff format (seven years), and only one of the seven didn’t have Championship contenders finish 1st and 2nd. In other words, if you’re looking to bet on Championship winners this weekend, it may be better to just bet that driver to win the race because you’ll get longer odds.
With the betting card this weekend, it’s another light one, with the reason being, I have enough money tied up in futures bets for the Championship, plus there’s just not a lot of value out there. We really don’t know which drivers are going to actually care and race hard on Sunday and which ones are just going to ride around. I’d guess most will opt to ride around.
Betting Card for the Season Finale 500 at Phoenix
Martin Truex, Jr. – This one has been a long time coming. I’ve documented on Twitter and on Stacking Dennys for quite a while now that I couldn’t stop betting Truex to not only win the Championship, but also just make the Final Four. The latter hit last weekend, now we just need Truex to take home the trophy on Sunday. And unfortunately, as if all of the futures bets weren’t a jinx enough, I put the real #JordanJinx (almost inadvertently) on MTJ of Tuesday this week, as I tweeted about (click here). Truex is the most recent race winner here at Phoenix Raceway and his car looked the most consistent over the long run of the four Championship contenders in practice. Hopefully James Small and this #19 team can fix their lack of short run speed before the race, though…
Favorite Bet of the Week
Kevin Harvick Top 10 Finish (-140) – I’m not going as big on this one as I did with the Ryan Blaney (now #DeadToMe) top 10 bet at Martinsville, but I really like this one. Kevin Harvick has finished 9th or better in eight of the ten 750hp package races this season, and here at Phoenix specifically he’s finished inside the top 10 in sixteen straight races. No, that’s not a typo. The #4 Ford ended up 6th here back in the spring race, and Stewart-Haas has more speed now than they did back then. Other than my Championship bets, this one is my only other significant wager for Sunday.
Rest of Jordan’s Card
Aric Almirola Top 10 Finish (+240) – This bet was worth a little #SaltBae sprinkle when it opened at +240. It has since went to +180, which is about the limit of how short I’d let it get for me to wager, personally. Almirola proved once again last weekend at Martinsville just how good he is on the short, flat tracks this season with a 6th-place finish, and he came home 11th here at Phoenix earlier this year despite having to drive through the field twice (he started in the back and then had a speeding penalty during Stage 2).
Again, this is another light betting weekend for me. I’ll add any more bets I make to this post if and when they happen.