Things can change fast here at Bristol Motor Speedway, and that can either be a very good or very bad thing for your DraftKings team. One slip-up by one of your drivers (or his/her pit crew) could easily take you from a cashing position to out of one. We should also expect to see some beating and banging by the drivers on Saturday night, because that’s just what happens when you cram 40 cars on a half-mile race track. Also, there’s a higher likelihood for tempers to flare now that we’re in “crunch time” for some teams to make this year’s Chase playoffs.
Typically with this post, we have a general list of drivers to avoid in DraftKings for various reasons. However, this week we’re going to try something new, something a little more structured. We are now going to categorize the drivers you should avoid: 1.) Over-Qualified, or drivers that qualified up front and probably won’t finish there, 2.) Over-Valued, or drivers that simply cost too much for the limited potential points they will earn or are going to be drafted by many other players, giving you an opportunity to fade them, and 3.) Flat-Out Avoid, or drivers that should simply be avoided at all costs. Most drivers will be categorized as either 1 or 2.
“Over-Qualified” DraftKings Drivers to Avoid for the Bristol Night Race
A.J. Allmendinger ($7,200) – It’s not necessarily a good thing if a driver qualifies better than he’s ever finished at a particular track, and that’s exactly what A.J. Allmendinger did this weekend. In sixteen career starts here at Bristol, “The Dinger” has never posted a result better than 12th, and that was way back in 2011. This weekend, he qualified 8th for the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race, and while that is a nice effort for this team, you should probably avoid A.J. like the plague when it comes to your DraftKings roster. Remember, he also qualified 9th in the spring race here back in April and ended up finishing 19th, scoring just 18 FPTS when it was all said and done. If all of that doesn’t make you stay away from Allmendinger this weekend, keep in mind that the only way he’s going to make the Chase this season is if he wins, and that means he’s going to driving like a jackass on Saturday night. Nearly 99% of the time that doesn’t end well here at Bristol.
Chris Buescher ($5,900) – Buescher is a wonderful Fantasy NASCAR pick in most league types this weekend, but DraftKings is not one of them. He’s actually ran pretty well here, with finishes of 25th and 21st in his first two starts at “The Bull Ring.” With that being said, Buescher wound up qualifying 12th for this weekend’s Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race, and that immediately makes him a terrible option in DraftKings. Unless he has a bunch of luck (and rain, fog, etc.) Buescher is a top 20 pick at best, and if he does end up finishing 20th here on Saturday night, that’s just 16 FPTS for his owners. You couldn’t pay us to put the driver of the #34 Ford on our DraftKings rosters this weekend.
Ryan Blaney ($7,800) – To be honest, we think this could end up being a very good race for Ryan Blaney on Saturday night. Does that mean he’s going to be on our DraftKings rosters? Not a chance. The #21 Ford will roll off the grid from the 4th-place starting spot for the 2016 Bristol night race, and while Blaney has shown a whole bunch of speed all weekend long, we just don’t see him as a legitimate top 5 threat in this race. Honestly, he’s not one of those drivers that is going to be aggressive and try to lead laps, and that means he’s going to give up some positions as the race goes on. To be honest, we have his ceiling at about 10th-place heading into race day (night), and right there you would be giving up 6 FPTS due to place differential. Blaney ran 11th in the spring race here at Bristol this season and he would probably be a great play in some Fantasy NASCAR leagues this weekend, but DraftKings is not one of them.
“Over-Valued” DraftKings Drivers to Avoid for the Bristol Night Race
Kevin Harvick ($10,400) – If you read our DraftKings Drivers to Target for Bristol 2 article, you’ll know that our recommended strategy this weekend is to go after the drivers that are going to get a bunch of laps led and fastest laps bonus points. Chances are Kevin Harvick isn’t going to fit that description. To be honest, the #4 Chevrolet probably looked the worst that it has all season on Friday, and while we are fully confident that Rodney Childers can make that race car fast for Saturday night, it’s nowhere near a guarantee. So while the potential place differential points are great with Harvick this weekend–he starts 24th–don’t focus solely on them. He could still finish top 5 this weekend and only have around 60 FPTS, which is quite low when you consider we’ll probably see one or two drivers with triple-digits on Saturday night. In our opinion, this is one of a few fade options at Bristol this weekend, and we don’t think Kevin Harvick is worth the high price tag in DraftKings this time. Also, if you look at his history here at Bristol, “Happy” usually doesn’t race to well unless he qualifies near the front.
Kurt Busch ($9,000) – Boy has this #41 team taken a step back. After being a single-digit finish machine for the first four months of the season, Kurt Busch now has just one single-digit finish in the last eight Sprint Cup races overall–and that was that crazy fuel mileage race at Kentucky. Now, Kurt is still a weekly top 10 threat, don’t get us wrong, but the potential for a top 5 finish seems to have gone away from this team over the last couple of months…and we don’t see it returning here at Bristol. Busch is a five-time winner here in Thunder Valley but his last win here ten years ago, way back in 2006. Kurt finished 3rd in the spring race here at Bristol this season but we can’t forget how whacky of a race that was and how the cautions benefited a lot of teams. The #41 Chevrolet will roll off the grid from 14th here on Saturday night, and while it wouldn’t surprise us to see Kurt come home with a solid top 10 in the 2016 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race, he’s not worth the $9,000 price tag with the limited amount of FPTS he will probably earn. He’s scored below his season average in six of the last seven Sprint Cup races.
Jeff Gordon ($8,800) – When you get into this price range with your DraftKings drivers, you’re expecting at least a top 10 finish (possibly even a top 5) along with some laps led and fastest laps. That’s not what you’re going to get out of Jeff Gordon on Saturday night. This will be his fourth start of the season in that #88 Chevrolet, and while Jeff isn’t doing too terrible (30.3 FPTS per race), there are much better options at this price level this weekend. Most people thought that he would have difficulty adjusting to the race car in the previous three races, but it’s going to be a whole different beast for 500 laps here at Bristol. While we do think Jeff Gordon has the potential to come away with a solid top 15 finish here on Saturday night, the price tag doesn’t warrant the limited amount of potential FPTS earned. Once again we think it would be best to avoid one of the all-time greats in DraftKings.
“Flat-Out Avoid” DraftKings Drivers for the Bristol Night Race
Jimmie Johnson ($9,800) – Yep, we’re going there. We don’t know what’s exactly wrong with this #48 team and we’re not about to put our Fantasy NASCAR rosters on the line to find out. With his 40th-place finish at Watkins Glen a couple of weeks ago, Jimmie Johnson has now finished outside of the top 10 in eight of the last nine Sprint Cup races overall. We’re to the point that over the last 36 races (a full season), 13 drivers have a better average finish than JJ, including Jamie McMurray (yikes). Here at Bristol, Johnson is a very hit or miss driver, with three top 5s in the last seven races along with three finishes outside of the top 20. This #48 team has struggled with the race car since they unloaded this weekend, and we were honestly a little surprised Johnson was able to qualify as high as he did on Friday (16th). There might be a little bit of value in drafting Jimmie Johnson this weekend but at $9,800 and with the slump he’s in? Count us out.
