Last week the Sprint Cup Series was at the short, half-mile track in Bristol, and this week they’re at the big, 2-mile track in Michigan. However, the strategy for DFS players should remain relatively the same, believe it or not. The last two races here at MIS have seen the two pole winners–Joey Logano and Matt Kenseth–lead 71% of the laps ran and also both go to victory lane. Passing here at Michigan isn’t as easy as you would think, so targeting place differential points solely this week may not be the best move. With that being said, there are a few drivers that should make their way through the field on race day, so having a nice mix of lap leaders, finishers, and “movers” should give you a nice score in DraftKings this week.
High-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Michigan 2
($9,500 or above)
Kevin Harvick ($10,700) – Unfortunately, the three best DraftKings drivers this weekend are also the three most expensive, and it starts with Kevin Harvick. Now the question becomes whether or not he’s going to put up enough points on Sunday to justify that large salary. The #4 Chevrolet will roll off the grid from the 4th-place starting spot for this weekend’s Pure Michigan 400, and Harvick definitely has a race car that is capable of winning this thing. However, to justify that salary, he needs to lead quite a few laps, and he’s going to have to get through Joey Logano to do so. Harvick typically has great long run cars on the intermediate tracks so that could definitely play into an advantage as well. As far as finish goes, “Happy” has ended up inside the top 5 in six of the last seven Michigan races and should end up there once again here on Sunday.
Joey Logano ($10,400) – It’s looking like it’s going to be the Joey Logano show once again this weekend. His crew chief, Todd Gordon, said during Saturday’s first practice session that they didn’t even want to practice, that the car was that good. Add on the fact that Logano is starting on the pole for Sunday’s Pure Michigan 400 and he’s looking like a must-draft here in DraftKings. Joey won the race here from the pole back in June and also got to victory lane at Michigan back in 2013, also after starting from the pole. Additionally, the top qualifiers in five of the last six races here in the Irish Hills have finished either 1st or 2nd, and it should end up being six of the last seven when the checkered flag waves here on Sunday. Logano wasn’t great on the practice charts during Saturday’s two sessions, but we’re not worried about that at all. Whenever this #22 Ford has good speed off the truck, the rest of the garage area needs to watch out.
Brad Keselowski ($10,200) – From a place differential perspective, Brad Keselowski is probably your best option this weekend. Whether or not he’s worth drafting at the $10,200 price tag, however, is nowhere near a guarantee, but it’s close–kind of like his record here at Michigan International Speedway. Keselowski has started 15th and 14th in the last two races here and has ended up finishing 4th and 9th (respectively) in those two events. In other words, don’t be too concerned about his 18th-place starting spot this weekend. This is Brad’s home race track and he’s currently on a five-race streak of top 10 finishes here. Additionally, he hasn’t posted a result worse than 13th here in the Irish Hills since the 2011 season, and that’s not going to change this weekend. The only bad thing we have to say about Keselowski this weekend is that he doesn’t lead a whole lot of laps here, so after his finish and place differential FPTS on Sunday, that’s probably about the ceiling for this guy. Still, those two combined should be around 52 total. Brad is dying for a win here at Michigan but it’s probably not going to happen this weekend.
Mid-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Michigan 2
(between $7,000 and $9,500)
Kurt Busch ($9,100) – Another guy with great place differential potential this weekend is Kurt Busch, who ended up 19th after the second round of qualifying on Friday. Apparently overnight, however, this #41 team found the speed they’ve had for much of the season, as Kurt wound up 4th on the speed chart in Practice #2 on Saturday morning and 6th-fastest in Happy Hour. Flashing back to the June race here at Michigan, Busch wound up finishing 10th in that event, and we’re expecting a similar run out of him here on Sunday in the Pure Michigan 400. One downside to Kurt Busch is that he has just one finish better than 10th in the last nine Sprint Cup races overall, but the Chevrolets as a whole have shown a lot of speed here this weekend, and we think that’s really going to show on Sunday during the race.
Kyle Larson ($8,500) – As usual, Kyle Larson is the ultimate risk/reward choice this weekend, as he’s probably going to challenge for the win or wreck out trying. This team has just three races left until the cutoff for NASCAR’s playoffs, and pretty much the only way they’re going to get in is with a victory. Luckily for them, Larson is pretty good at this track. He came home 3rd in the June race here earlier this season and that makes it three finishes of 13th or better in five career starts for him in the Irish Hills. As far as practice goes this weekend, the #42 Chevrolet was 5th-fastest in Saturday’s morning session and then ranked P8 in Happy Hour (along with the best ten-lap average). Larson will roll off the grid from 12th when we get going here on Sunday, which opens up the door to some place differential points if he can put together a whole race. He definitely has the speed to make some noise in the 2016 Pure Michigan 400.
Jamie McMurray ($7,600) – You might be giving away some place differential points if you have Jamie McMurray on your team this weekend (he qualified 8th) but the driver of the #1 Chevrolet is very solid here at Michigan International Speedway and is pretty under-valued in DraftKings this weekend. Overall, McMurray hasn’t finished worse than 16th in the last five Michigan races and that shouldn’t change this weekend either. This #1 team is really putting together some good finishes as of late–four top 10s in the last six races overall–and that’s really not surprising considering how well Kyle Larson (teammate) is running. In Practice #2 on Saturday, Jamie was 19th on the overall speed chart and ranked 5th in ten-lap average. In Happy Hour, he was 13th and 6th, respectively. The fact that this team was working on long runs on Saturday tells me they have a pretty good race car for Sunday’s race and were just dialing it in.
Low-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Michigan 2
(under $7,000)
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($6,700) – This was the only halfway-decent driver to not make the second round of qualifying on Friday, so if you’re looking for a decent option to pick up some place differential points on Sunday, Stenhouse is your man (he starts 29th). The track history for him is not so good here at Michigan International Speedway–currently Ricky is on a three-race streak of finishes of 25th or worse–but there are some things to like about him that make him a viable game on Sunday. First, Stenhouse has been performing well (relatively speaking) not only this season, but recently: he’s coming off of that 2nd-place finish at Bristol last week and has ended up 12th or better in four of the last seven races overall. Additionally, it’s not like Stenhouse has never ran well here at Michigan; in his first four starts at MIS, Ricky posted finishes of 16th, 19th, 27th, and 15th. As said before, this is a gamble pick, but the potential for a pretty big score is there. Also, for what it’s worth, at Fontana earlier this year–another 2-mile race track–the #17 Ford came home 5th after starting 18th.
Trevor Bayne ($6,300) – We were a little disappointed when Trevor Bayne qualified 24th here on Friday, but there’s still some room for place differential points. The best thing about this guy is that DraftKings hasn’t yet bumped up his salary, which is kind of surprising considering Bayne has posted at least 37 FPTS in five of the last seven races. He has also finished better than he started in all but two of the last ten Sprint Cup races overall. From a DraftKings perspective, this kid is stud. Overall, the Roush-Fenway Racing Fords are all vastly improved this season, but there’s still quite a few people that are afraid of putting them on their Fantasy NASCAR rosters. Don’t be like those people. Bayne wound up finishing 15th here back in June and ended up 9th in the spring race here last season. The #6 Ford doesn’t have the most speed in it heading into Sunday but don’t be surprised if Trevor comes home with a mid-teens finish in this year’s Pure Michigan 400.
Landon Cassill ($5,600) – It’s going to be hard to put together a DraftKings roster this weekend without a very low-dollar driver on it, and while a lot of other experts are looking at David Ragan to fill that spot–thanks to his three finishes of 24th or better in the last four Michigan races–we’re gravitating toward a potentially better (and cheaper) option in Landon Cassill. This #38 team actually hasn’t been running too terribly here as of late, with three finishes of 23rd or better in the last four Sprint Cup races overall. Here at Michigan, Cassill ended up finishing 25th back in the June race (after starting 28th), and don’t forget that he wound up 16th at Fontana earlier this season, which is another 2-mile race track. Cassill also starts one spot worse than Ragan this weekend, as he qualified back in 33rd. When you get down to these types of drivers, it’s all about timing on race day and a little bit of luck. We think Cassill looked the best among these very low-dollar drivers this weekend and he could have top 25 potential on Sunday depending on how many other cars wreck or have mechanical issues.
