Saturday night’s Federated Auto Parts 400 has the potential to be a very wacky race. This is the final race of the regular season, which means there are plenty of teams that will be looking for any trick in the book to try and steal a win to make the Chase. And then you have those already locked into NASCAR’s playoffs, who might be looking to steal a win and get some bonus points for the Chase, or could possibly be in test mode. In other words, don’t be taken aback if we see a few surprise high finishers (as well as disappointing performances) on Saturday night.
We aren’t using our categories for drivers to avoid this weekend because pretty much everyone on our list falls into the same one: “Over-Qualified.” All of the top-dollar drivers should be the near the top of the scoring list here on Saturday night, and there’s really no one driver that we can think of that should be totally avoided.
DraftKings Drivers to Avoid for the Richmond Federated Auto Parts 400
Kurt Busch ($8,600) – Yep, he’s on here again. Kurt Busch qualified 5th for Saturday night’s Federated Auto Parts 400 and that immediately took him off of our radar as far as our DraftKings lineups are concerned. The thing is, the #41 Chevrolet showed more speed on Friday than we have seen in a while, but we’re sticking with our guns here. The fact of the matter is that over the last eleven Sprint Cup races overall, Kurt Busch has just one finish better than 10th, and that was his 4th-place run in the fuel mileage race at Kentucky. Here at Richmond, Kurt did go to victory lane in the spring race last season, but he finished 15th in this race one year ago and wound up 10th here back in April. The #41 Chevrolet might have enough speed for a top 10 run here on Saturday night, but even if Kurt winds up finishing 10th, that’s just 29 base FPTS due to his starting position.
Kyle Larson ($9,000) – Say it isn’t so. Kyle Larson has been a gold mine in DraftKings over the last couple of weeks but there’s a reason we’re not touching him here at Richmond on Saturday night. First of all, he qualified 2nd. That’s great for him and makes him a viable option in many other Fantasy NASCAR leagues, but as far as DraftKings goes, it’s a kiss of death. The truth is–and Kyle will even admit this–Larson isn’t that great of a short track racer. Making one fast lap here in qualifying is entirely different than being a challenger during actual race conditions. The #42 Chevrolet showed decent speed during the practice sessions here at Richmond on Friday, but not the type of speed that will have Larson getting laps led and fastest lap FPTS on Saturday night. His career-best finish here in five starts has been 11th, and while Kyle does have a good chance at besting that this weekend, he’s not worth the risk in DraftKings. At best we’re looking at a low 30s score out of Larson in this race and that’s not good enough to justify the $9,000 price tag.
Tony Stewart ($8,200) – And just like that, Tony Stewart has three straight finishes outside of the top 20. We don’t know whether all of those good runs that this #14 team were having this summer were just good luck or what, but this is an entirely different team right now. This is the Tony Stewart that us Fantasy NASCAR players were accustomed to last season. This weekend, the #14 Chevrolet was middle-of-the-road good during the practice sessions and seemed to have better short run speed than long run potential. That’s not going to help Smoke on Saturday night. As far as his record here at Richmond, Tony used to be one of the best fantasy picks in the garage, but over his last six starts at this track his best finish has been 15th, and in half of those races, Stewart finished 25th or worse. Smoke qualified 14th for this year’s Federated Auto Parts 400 but he might have a hard time even coming up even in the place differential category. We’ll pass.
Jamie McMurray ($7,500) – All Jamie McMurray needs to do to punch his ticket to the Chase this weekend is finish in the top 20. He got off to a great start here on Friday by qualifying 4th, and while there are a couple reasons to take a chance on him with your DraftKings lineups this weekend (we’ll get to that soon), we’re going to stay away from the #1 Chevrolet. First off, McMurray is going to be points racing in the Federated Auto Parts 400. He’s not going to be aggressive, and more than likely he’s going to let other drivers pass him if he gets in a tight situation. So while he may have a top 10 car for this weekend’s race, that has to bump him down a few notches. One reason you might want to take the risk with McMurray and his 4th-place starting spot, however, is his three 4th-place finishes in the last six Richmond races. The #1 Chevrolet has pretty good speed this weekend, but not that good. With that being said, you never know what Jamie will do with track position. He’d have to finish 9th or better to score 30+ FPTS on Saturday night, and while it is possible, we just don’t see it happening.
Kasey Kahne ($7,600) – Kasey Kahne needs a win here on Saturday night if he wants to make the Chase, and we’re sorry but “good luck” and “Kasey Kahne” are two phrases that simply do not belong in the same sentence. The good news for fantasy owners is that this #5 team has been running better than normal as of late, with four top 15 finishes in the last five Sprint Cup races overall, including that impressive 7th-place run at Darlington last weekend. Additionally, Kahne finished 4th here at Richmond when we ran here back in April, and that’s his second straight top 10 in the early-season race here. The bad news is that Kahne qualified 7th for this weekend’s Federated Auto Parts 400 and probably has a 12th-place car (at best) going into race day. So even if he ends up finishing that high you’re giving up 5 FPTS right off the bat. Additionally, Kahne hasn’t finished better than 12th in the September event here at Richmond since way back in 2007 season, and it doesn’t look like that’s going to change this weekend. This isn’t an “avoid like the plague” notice, and if Kahne fits into one of your lineups and you’re okay with a high-20s FPTS score out of him, then he might be worth it. Don’t forget that this team needs a win, so they will be pulling every trick to be in position to accomplish that. That’s typically very good or very bad for fantasy owners.
Chris Buescher ($6,700) – Chris Buescher has, more often than not, turned out to be a great DraftKings driver over the last couple of months. This is the weekend he’s probably going to come down to earth a little bit, though. Buescher qualified 31st for Saturday night’s Federated Auto Parts 400, so his ownership percentage is going to be quite high considering the potential for place differential FPTS. However, we think that’s some fools gold hope. These Richmond races typically don’t turn into attrition events, and as far as this race track, Buescher hasn’t quite figured it out yet. His first start here was back in April and he ended up finishing 34th that day after starting 33rd. And back in March at Phoenix–a track somewhat similar to Richmond–he started 32nd and finished 30th. As far as practice times this weekend, the #34 Ford was 26th-fastest in the first session and 28th-fastest in Happy Hour. We’re not guaranteeing a bad finish out of Buescher here on Saturday night, but it wouldn’t surprise us if he missed the Chase, and that’s all we’re going to say. He makes a perfect fade opportunity in DraftKings.
