In most Atlanta races, we see more than a couple drivers make their way through the field and finish up front after starting outside of the top 10, and it’s looking like that’s going to be the case once again this weekend. Of course, for there to be drivers with positive place differential, there has to be drivers with negative place differential–a.k.a. the ones you need to avoid. With that being said, there are also some ‘top tier’ drivers that might be worth a fade this weekend, and some that are priced a little too high in the DraftKings driver pool.
Also check out: DraftKings Drivers to Target at Atlanta
DraftKings Drivers to Avoid for the Atlanta QuikTrip Folds of Honor 500
Austin Dillon ($8,200) – With a starting position of 19th, Austin Dillon would look like a very good option in DraftKings for most races. Atlanta, however, is not one of those races. Austin has made four career starts at this track, but let’s focus on the last three, since those were all ran in the #3 Chevrolet. He finished 24th back in 2014, followed by a 39th-place effort in 2015. Last season, Austin ended up 11th (after starting 8th), but how legitimate was that run? Considering the #3 Chevrolet had an average running position of 17th in that race, it’s quite easy to assume that Dillon didn’t have the 11th-best car. As far as this weekend goes, there is a chance that he may be able to get up inside the top 15 before it’s all said and done, but $8,200 in salary is a lot of coin for a driver that may or may not have a decent finish. Austin did run the most laps of all drivers during Happy Hour but never showed an incredible amount of speed.
Kyle Busch ($10,400) – Rowdy is a pretty good option in a lot of Fantasy NASCAR leagues this weekend. However, DraftKings is not one of them. He qualified 3rd for Sunday’s QuikTrip Folds of Honor 500, which is typically a good thing, but if you’re going to spend $10,400 on a driver, you’re going to need to get dominator points (laps led and fastest laps FPTS). Now, fastest laps are hard to predict, especially at a track like Atlanta, but it’s hard to imagine Kyle Busch leading a whole bunch of laps here on Sunday, simply because he’s going to have to somehow get ahead of Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski. Now obviously Rowdy will be in the catbird seat if those two Fords have issues early, but the chance of something happening to both Harvick and Keselowski isn’t very high. Kyle Busch should be a solid 4th-to-7th-place finisher here on Sunday afternoon, but simply posting that kind of result isn’t going to score a whole lot of FPTS in DraftKings.
Ryan Blaney ($7,200) – Running well at Atlanta Motor Speedway requires you to have a bit of aggressiveness within your driving habits, as well as the intuition on when to turn that aggressiveness up. And while we only have one full season of Cup racing to judge Ryan Blaney on, I still have yet to see any sort of aggressiveness out of this kid. That’s part of the season why he only had three top 5 finishes in his rookie year while Chase Elliott wound up with ten. Anyway, Blaney is priced correctly this weekend and would be a solid choice in DraftKings if he qualified back in the mid-20s. However, the #21 Ford will roll off the grid from 14th when we get going on Sunday, and that’s about the highest Blaney’s going to finish, too (without some crazy ending or a bunch of wrecks). He started 23rd and finished 25th in this race last season, although it should be noted that Blaney had an average running position of 15th in that race. He’d be worth a shot if he had a top 10 car this weekend, but Ryan barely showed top 20 speed on Saturday, let alone top 10.
Clint Bowyer ($8,400) – Clint Bowyer’s draft percentage is going to be decently high this weekend due to the fact that he qualified 25th, but don’t let those potential place differential FPTS blind you: Clint is simply not very good here at Atlanta Motor Speedway. In fact, he hasn’t finished better than 24th since the 2010 season. Overall, Bowyer has an average finish of 22.1 over his sixteen career starts here and, to put that in perspective, Michael Waltrip (22.0), Casey Mears (21.8), and Brett Moffitt (21.0) all are besting him in that category. The #14 team did find some speed during Happy Hour on Saturday, but then again Bowyer only ran 46 total laps in that session, which is a red flag. The $8,400 price tag is the final nail in the coffin for Bowyer this weekend: he simply costs too much to even take a chance with him on a small percentage of lineups.
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($6,900) – This should be a no-brainer, but there’s bound to be some people looking at Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. as a possible option simply because he’s low-priced. However, the fact that he qualified 4th for Sunday’s race overshadows any reason to take a chance with Stenhouse at Atlanta this weekend. Yes, he finished 10th in this race last season (after starting 5th), but the chances of that occurring again isn’t very high. Stenhouse was 13th-fastest in Happy Hour and posted the 4th-best ten-lap average, but even those impressive speeds aren’t enough to make Ricky a viable option on Sunday. For what it’s worth, each time Stenhouse qualified inside the top 6 last season, he ended up finishing 16th or better. Those negative place differential FPTS are going to kill his viability in DraftKings, though.
