There’s a lot of ‘out of control’ variables that could have a major effect on Sunday’s Auto Club 400. Whether it be blown tires (an issue that seems to happen often here at Fontana), or drivers scraping the wall, a lot can wrong for the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup teams here on Sunday–nevermind the fact that this big, 2-mile race track really tests the limits of each team’s equipment. Those ‘out of control’ variables are impossible to predict, though, so you just have to hope for the best. There are some drivers that should be absolutely avoided in DraftKings this weekend, though, so let’s go over those now.
Also check out: DraftKings Drivers to Target at Fontana
DraftKings Drivers to Avoid for the Fontana Auto Club 400
Austin Dillon ($7,300) – Austin Dillon’s salary is the lowest it has been in quite some time, and it’s no surprise why: he hasn’t finished better than 18th this season, and his career average finish of 17th here at Auto Club Speedway is nothing to get exciting about. That low salary would have actually made Dillon a decent option this weekend, but under one condition: he needed to quality mid-pack or worse. Unfortunately that didn’t happen. The #3 Chevrolet will roll off the grid from 11th here on Sunday, and if practice was any indication, he won’t be there long; this #3 team hasn’t been able to find any speed at all in race trim this weekend, and it’s not likely that they magically find it on Saturday night or Sunday morning. Going into the Auto Club 400, Austin Dillon is a top 20 car at best and should be avoided in most Fantasy NASCAR games, especially DraftKings.
Kevin Harvick ($10,800) – Go big or go home, right? I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that the #4 Ford is overrated this weekend. Harvick is the highest-priced driver in DraftKings this weekend, and if you’re going to use up $10,800 of your $50,000 cap on one driver, he better get you a whole lot of FPTS. And after Saturday’s practice sessions, it’s hard seeing Kevin Harvick being that guy on Sunday. The #4 Ford wasn’t terrible on the speed charts during the practices, but you could tell that the team was still a little off with their setup. Could that be due to Rodney Childers getting suspended? I’m not sure. But the fact of the matter is that Harvick wasn’t overly impressive on Saturday and he has yet to get a top 5 finish this season. Is it possible he changes that this weekend? Absolutely, but it’s just hard to imagine him leading more than a handful of laps in this year’s Auto Club 400. On a positive note, Harvick did have the best car here last year (led 142 of the 205 laps) and has wound up 2nd in each of the last two races at Fontana.
Matt Kenseth ($8,900) – With Matt Kenseth this weekend, I’m expecting a similar run to the one he had at Las Vegas a couple of weeks ago. He wound up finishing 9th that day, but still only posted 30 FPTS in DraftKings due to the fact that he qualified 4th. This weekend, the #20 Toyota will roll off the grid from 6th when we go green, and while I do think Kenseth has top 10 potential, we’re still looking at some negative FPTS due to the place differential. If you’re going for maximum points, you obviously want to avoid those. The #20 Toyota wasn’t terrible during the two practice sessions on Saturday, but it wasn’t overly impressive, either; Kenseth ranked 7th-fastest on the overall speed chart and 9th in ten-lap average during Happy Hour. He has four top 10s in the last eight races here at Auto Club Speedway but only two top 5s in the last nine.
Ryan Newman ($8,000) – Gambling with tires and ending up in victory lane doesn’t take away the fact that Ryan Newman’s best finish before Phoenix was 17th. “The Rocketman” has always been a solid qualifier and that in and of itself usually makes him a terrible play in DraftKings. The fact of the matter is that Ryan Newman isn’t a dominator, and if you’re going to be a viable option in this format, you’re going to need to get those dominator points if you qualify up front. Newman is more of a “probably be there at the end, maybe not” kind of driver. In the 108 races from 2014 through 2016, Newman led a total of 85 laps. Many drivers lead that many in one weekend. “The Rocketman” finished 5th in this race two years ago but hasn’t had a triple digit driver rating here at Fontana since 2012.
Daniel Suarez ($7,100) – That silence you’re hearing is me still waiting for Daniel Suarez to run well in an actual race. Yes, he finished 7th at Phoenix last weekend, but that doesn’t get rid of the fact that he had an average running position of 25th in that race. Although, if you’re Darrell Waltrip, you think he ran top 10 all day, as DW stated during practice on Saturday (do we have a new front runner for ‘fake news’?). Anyway, Suarez has actually shown a bunch of speed at Auto Club Speedway this weekend, and it started on Friday when he ended up qualifying 10th. When you combine that with the fact that his salary jumped up to $7,100 this week, there’s no reason to even take a chance with this kid. In all reality, Suarez is a high teens-to-low twenties finisher this week, but he might be able to sneak in a top 15 if he gets another (lucky) late restart. Those high-potential 24 FPTS still aren’t good enough for a lineup spot in DraftKings.
