With the whole qualifying mishap on Friday, there’s probably going to be a whole lot of ‘movers’ during the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 on Sunday. However, for each ‘mover,’ that also means there has to be a ‘loser.’ Unfortunately, a lot of the low-dollar drivers are the ones that are going to fall back on Sunday, as quite a few of those drivers qualified much higher than normal.
Also check out: DraftKings Drivers to Target at Texas
DraftKings Drivers to Avoid for the Texas O’Reilly Auto Parts 500
Kurt Busch ($8,000) – This guy just deserves a permanent spot on my “DraftKings Drivers to Avoid” list from here on out. The good news for Kurt Busch fans is that he looks faster this weekend than he has in quite a while, and that started on Friday when he qualified 10th. With that being said, if the drivers that missed qualifying would have been able to make a run, chances are Kurt would be starting 15th or worse, so keep that in mind. Week in and week out, the #41 team disappoints fantasy owners, and it’s going to be much of the same here this weekend. Kurt hasn’t had a finish better than 24th since the Atlanta race in the first week of March, and while he is probably going to end up inside the top 20 this weekend, he’s going to need a top 5 run to make him worth the $8,000 salary in DraftKings–and that’s not going to happen. Kurt was 18th on the Happy Hour speed chart Saturday, and that’s probably where he will finish on Sunday, too, netting 18 base FPTS in DraftKings. No thank you.
Ryan Newman ($7,800) – “The Rocketman” is notorious for finishing worse than he qualifies and that’s going to be the case once again this weekend at Texas Motor Speedway. He qualified 9th for this year’s O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 but it’s going to take a lot out of this #31 team to back that up on race day. Both Richard Childress Racing Chevrolets struggled during the two practice sessions on Saturday, and the fact that Newman only ran 16 laps in that final session should be a big red flag for anyone considering him. He was also only 27th-fastest in that practice. Newman hasn’t finished better than 15th on an intermediate track this season and that will likely stay true on Sunday. He did finish 3rd at Kentucky last year but don’t forget that that race came down to fuel mileage, so you have to put an asterisk next to that. He had an average running position of 12th in that race.
Jamie McMurray ($8,300) – Jamie Mac could easily come home with a top 10 finish here at Texas on Sunday but that doesn’t make him a good pick in DraftKings. The fact of the matter is that McMurray doesn’t lead many laps and rarely gets any fastest lap FPTS on the intermediate race tracks. And neither of those are going to change on Sunday. The #1 Chevrolet looked like a top 15 car during the two practice sessions on Saturday and McMurray will probably start falling back soon after the green flag waves. Chances are he’s going to finish between 9th and 13th when the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 is all said and done, but even then you’re only looking a base FPTS score of 24 to 31. Not exactly worth the salary there.
Michael McDowell ($5,500) – The #95 Chevrolet has more speed in it this weekend than we have seen all season thus far, and it wouldn’t be all that surprising to see Michael McDowell come home with a solid top 20 finish here on Sunday. Therefore, he’s a great Fantasy NASCAR pick in most leagues. DraftKings, however, is not one of them. McDowell qualified 13th for Sunday’s O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 and that means it’s going to take an 18th-place finish (or better) for him to score 20+ base FPTS on Sunday. For comparison, you can jump down and go with someone like Timmy Hill (who starts 39th) and get 20+ base FPTS out of him with a 31st-place result. Neither are worth it, though. McDowell has been a low-dollar staple in DraftKings for the last year or so, but he should be on a very limited number of your lineups this weekend, if any.
Ryan Blaney ($8,100) – Ryan Blaney is still looking for his breakout race, and while it’s hard to overlook the speed that the #21 Ford has this weekend, let’s take a step back and look at this new aggressive driving that Blaney has suddenly started going with. There’s a time and a place for that kind of driving style but unfortunately this isn’t the weekend for it. If you remember back to the Kentucky race last year, which this ‘new’ Texas is getting compared to, Blaney made it just a little over halfway before wrecking out. With that being said, if he does decide to drive with a brain on Sunday, Blaney should be good for a solid top 10 finish. In fact, it wouldn’t be surprising if he had a race similar to the one he had at Las Vegas last month, where he started 3rd and finished 7th. The only problem? Blaney only scored 36 FPTS in that race. With the potential for huge FPTS days out of some of the other drivers in this race, that kind of production is not going to do it on Sunday.
