Expect to see the running order be shuffled up early and often at Dover on Sunday, as restarts and cautions will have a huge impact the race (as well as pit stops by the crews, obviously). Usually we see plenty of drivers make their way through the field after a bad qualifying effort earlier that weekend, and whenever that happens, there are obviously going to be those that slip back after obtaining a good starting spot. There’s a huge difference in being fast at Dover for one lap and being fast over the course of a green flag run.
Also check out: DraftKings Drivers to Target at Dover
DraftKings Drivers to Fade for the Dover AAA 400
Matt Kenseth ($9,500) – This weekend, I’m expecting a similar race out of Matt Kenseth as the one we saw him have at Charlotte last weekend. In that race, Kenseth qualified 4th and finished 4th while posting 26 fastest laps, giving him a grand total of 53 FPTS in DraftKings. And while they is definitely a good score to have in your lineup, don’t forget that Kenseth was priced at $8,700 at Charlotte and DraftKings has him at $9,500 for this Sunday’s AAA 400 at Dover. The #20 Toyota will once again roll off the grid from 4th here on Sunday, and while Kenseth is definitely a top 5 threat, it’s hard to imagine him getting many dominator points; guys like Kyle Busch, Martin Truex, Jr., Kyle Larson, and Jimmie Johnson all have faster cars than Kenseth does, so it’s going to be hard for the #20 car to get out front. And at $9,500, that’s a whole lot of salary cap used up on driver that has minimal place differential and dominator potential this weekend.
Dale Earnhardt, Jr. ($7,800) – The #88 Chevrolet has actually looked a little better than normal this weekend, although that really isn’t saying much. Junior wound up qualifying 11th for Sunday’s AAA 400 Drive for Autism, and while he has done decent here at Dover in the past–Earnhardt came home 3rd in this race one year ago–it’s probably going to be more disappoint for Junior fantasy owners once again on Sunday. This is still the same driver that has just two top 10 finishes on the year thus far. The biggest red flag when it comes to the #88 Chevrolet this weekend, though, is the Happy Hour ten-lap average chart: Junior was nowhere to be found. Any time this happens on a track that is one mile or less in length is an immediate red flag because that tells me that there are some major issues with the car. Junior did seem happy with his car on Twitter after practice, but I’m not a fan of picking a driver simply because they say they’re fast. Even Corey LaJoie will tell you that he has good speed in his car, so much speed that he sends it directly into the wall, apparently.
Austin Dillon ($7,400) – Don’t let any type of recency bias convince you that Austin Dillon is a viable option in DraftKings this weekend. Lucking into a race win due to fuel mileage doesn’t qualify as a good run, and it sure as hell doesn’t translate into momentum for the next race. This weekend at Dover, the #3 team actually looked good on Friday and wound up 9th in qualifying. On Saturday, though, Austin failed to crack the top 20 in either practice session and was 25th out of 27 drivers in terms of ten-lap average during the final session. The good news for A. Dillon fans is that he posted a career-best finish of 8th here at Dover last fall, but the bad news is that that is his only finish better than 20th in seven career Cup Series starts here. It’d be surprising to see the #3 Chevrolet come home inside the top 15 on Sunday, and even if he was able to finish 15th, you’re still only looking at 23 base FPTS in DraftKings.
Regan Smith ($6,100) – There’s little to no risk in putting Regan Smith in your DraftKings lineup this weekend, but at the same time, there’s minimal reward as well. The fact of the matter is that Smith has never ran well here at Dover International Speedway no matter what equipment he was in (seven finishes of 26th or worse in twelve career starts). This is the second ‘real’ race that he is running with this #43 team and, honestly, it’d be surprising if Regan finished better than 25th on Sunday. As I said before, though, there’s minimal risk with Smith, mainly because he qualified 30th for this weekend’s AAA 400 Drive for Autism. And because of that, you can expect a decently high amount of DraftKings users to go with him. I’d rather fade him, though, and go with someone like Chris Buescher ($6,300), A.J. Allmendinger ($6,200), or, yes, even Danica Patrick ($5,900), who has actually had decent runs here at Dover in the past.
Daniel Suarez ($7,100) – Daniel Suarez is a very good Fantasy NASCAR pick in a lot of leagues this weekend, and I actually have him ranked P15 heading into Sunday’s AAA 400 Drive for Autism. But as far as leagues that penalize drivers for negative place differential, such as DraftKings? There’s no chance in hell he will be on any of my rosters. Suarez qualified 3rd this weekend, which is great for him, but the chances of the #19 Toyota finishing up there are very slim. Additionally, the chances of Suarez getting many (if any) laps led or fastest laps FPTS are slim to none. So even if Suarez is able to finish 15th on Sunday, you’re only looking at 17 base FPTS in DraftKings. You can get that same amount with a 33rd-place finish out of Jeffrey Earnhardt. You shouldn’t even consider Daniel Suarez in DraftKings this weekend.
