The races at Dover International Speedway tend to be pretty predictable, simply because the best drivers always find their way to the front here at the end of the day. This is a 1-mile concrete track that races like an intermediate venue where starting position typically doesn’t mean a whole lot–at least as far as finishing position goes. When it comes to the dominators of races at “The Monster Mile,” it’s usually those that start up front, and that should be the case here on Sunday as well.
With 400 laps scheduled, that means there will probably be close to 180 FPTS for fastest laps and 100 FPTS for laps led up for grabs on Sunday afternoon, the first number obviously depending on the number of caution laps.
High-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Dover (over $9,500)
Kyle Busch ($10,400) – After last week’s ending to the Coca-Cola 600, it had to feel good for Kyle Busch to come out here at Dover and end up P1 in qualifying. Still, there’s no way in hell that he’s satisfied. This #18 team is still searching for their first win of the 2017 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series season, and with the way they have been running (and finishing) here as of late, you know that the victory is imminent. This weekend, the only thing Kyle Busch is focused on is dominating the AAA 400 Drive for Autism, and he definitely has the car to do it. In Practice #2 on Saturday morning, Rowdy was fastest with the 6th-best ten-lap average, and then during Happy Hour he ranked 3rd and 2nd on those two charts, respectively. Busch has two 2nd-place finishes in the last three races here at Dover and is searching for his third career Cup Series win at this track. There’s some risk here with putting the pole sitter in your DraftKings lineup, but the dominator potential is massive.
Kyle Larson ($10,300) – Having both Kyle Busch and Martin Truex, Jr. in your lineup was the best strategy at Charlotte last weekend, but after the two final practice sessions this weekend at Dover, it looks as though having Kyle Larson to complement Kyle Busch is going to be the best strategy move. Don’t get me wrong, Martin Truex, Jr. ($9,900) has a great car this weekend and is the most recent winner here at “The Monster Mile.” Additionally, the #78 team is at the top of their game right now, with the most laps led in the last two-points paying Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series races and 100+ laps led in three of the last five. With that being said, he might not have the best car, and he’s probably going to be the highest-owned high-dollar driver in DraftKings because of his sub-$10,000 price. During the Happy Hour practice session on Saturday, the #42 Chevrolet was far and away the best car on the track, and Larson’s long run speed should have the rest of the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series garage searching on how to get to that level. Additionally, this is (arguably) Larson’s best track on the circuit, as he has just one finish worse than 11th here in six career starts. He led 85 laps and finished 2nd in this race one year ago and has a car this weekend that is more than capable of leading–along with racking up a bunch of dominator points. Additionally, the #42 team qualified 5th this weekend, which leaves a little room for some place differential FPTS as well.
Mid-Range DraftKings Drivers to Target at Dover (between $7,500 and $9,500)
Clint Bowyer ($8,800) – On Sunday, you’re probably going to have a lot of the dominator points locked up between the four high-dollar drivers listed above, which means the rest of your DraftKings lineup should focus on place differential FPTS. Clint Bowyer is pretty high-priced in DraftKings this weekend but he should be worth the expenditure; despite having decent speed in the first practice session this weekend, Bowyer went out and qualified 22nd on Friday, which makes him one of the top place differential options in DraftKings. In Practice #2 on Saturday morning, the #14 Ford was P2 on the ten-lap average, and then during Happy Hour Clint wound up 13th-best in that category (and had good things to say about his car, too). Bowyer finished 12th in this race last year despite running the garbage HScott Motorsports car, and from 2011 to 2015 he had nine straight top 10 finishes at “The Monster Mile.” He’s never won at Dover, but Bowyer’s solid here. If you don’t want to load up on three of the drivers priced above $9,500 in DraftKings, he’s a great option below that.
Jamie McMurray ($8,200) – Another driver that had a disappointing qualifying effort this weekend was Jamie McMurray. Can you believe that this is just the second time all season that he didn’t make the final round of qualifying? The other time was at Talladega, where McMurray started 23rd and ended up finishing 2nd. This weekend, the #1 Chevrolet will roll off the grid from 19th but should be able to contend for a top 10 result. Jamie Mac was 8th-fastest in Practice #2 on Saturday morning and wound up 9th-quickest in Happy Hour. His ten-lap averages during those sessions were 1st- and 6th-best. Jamie’s record here at Dover is nothing special but he does four finishes of 13th or better in the last seven races at “The Monster Mile.” This #1 team has been solid all season long and should have another strong showing here on Sunday as well.
Low-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Dover (under $7,500)
Chris Buescher ($6,300) – Chris Buescher ended up finishing 20th at Charlotte last weekend, which isn’t overly significant unless you play DraftKings. That’s the fourth straight result between 15th and 20th for this #37 team, and considering Buescher tends to qualify back in the upper-20s, that makes him a great option in place differential Fantasy NASCAR games. This weekend the #37 Chevrolet will roll off the grid from 29th but Buscher should be able to keep his nose clean and contend for another top 20 finish. He wound up finishing 18th and 23rd in his two starts here last season and practiced higher than he qualified in all three sessions this weekend. On Saturday, Buescher was 21st on the overall speed chart and ranked 18th-fastest in Happy Hour that afternoon. You never know how attrition is going to affect a race at a track like Dover, but as far as a reliable place differential fantasy driver goes, Buescher is one of the best options in DraftKings this weekend.
David Ragan ($5,100) – Another driver that had a great month of May in Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series action was David Ragan. Last week’s 23rd-place finish in the Coca-Cola 600 was actually Ragan’s worst finish for that entire month, and he has now ended up 23rd or better in each of the last five Cup Series races overall. And don’t forget that the #38 Ford was actually inside the top 20 in the final 50 laps at Charlotte but had to pit late (if I remember correctly). Anyway, David Ragan qualified 33rd here at Dover this weekend, so he’s a low risk-high reward driver at this price. He has finished 30th, 17th, 22nd, and 13th in the last four races here and if he can stay out of trouble on Sunday he should be good for a top 25 run. If you’re going to load up on high-dollar DraftKings drivers this weekend, Ragan is a must own.
