These are my final thoughts and strategies to consider for Sunday afternoon’s race at Pocono Raceway, as well as projected DraftKings FPTS for each driver. The chart below is explained but if you have any questions please don’t hesitate to contact me.
- IMPORTANT: Place differential points should be on your mind more this week than over the last couple of races. Sunday’s race at Pocono is only 160 laps, while the races at Charlotte and Dover were both 400 laps. That’s less than half! Dominator points are limited this week so that places a bigger emphasis on the finish and place differential points in DraftKings.
- Martin Truex, Jr.’s team decided to replace the engine in the #78 Toyota on Saturday night, and Truex will now start at the back of the field on Sunday. He will still be scored from 2nd in DraftKings, though.
- The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series teams only had one hour of practice on Saturday after qualifying on Friday, but how helpful that session will end up being is up in the air. It’s supposed to be significantly hotter at Pocono on Sunday than it was on Saturday, and that could really affect how these cars handle.
- There is no clear-cut favorite dominator this weekend. Last week it was pretty much narrowed down to Kyle Larson, Martin Truex, Jr., and Kyle Busch. And while those guys should also be in the running for the dominator here at Pocono, you also have to consider someone like Brad Keselowski or Matt Kenseth.
- It’s interesting to look at recent trends at Pocono, particularly laps led. Starting up front definitely doesn’t guarantee you any laps led. Over the last six races here, the pole sitter has led an average of just 6.5 laps while the 2nd-place qualifier has led 11.8 laps on average. The 3rd-place qualifier leads an average of 53.3 laps at Pocono, and has led the most laps in three of the last six races here. Overall the lap leader has an average starting spot of 6.2 at Pocono over the last three years.
- Additionally, starting up front doesn’t guarantee a finish up front. Over the last three years, the pole sitter has an average finish of 13.7 while the 2nd-place qualifier averages a result of 12.7. The rest of the top 5 qualifiers have averaged the following finishes, respectively: 14.7, 11.7, and 7.5.
Projected Base FPTS at Pocono
The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from five different ranking systems, using both mathematical equations as well as personal rankings. This chart also includes the average projected base DraftKings FPTS–which doesn’t take into account fastest laps or laps led points–as well as the dollar per FPT. I don’t try to project fastest laps or laps led–that’s up to you. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by the average projected finish of the drivers.
Note: the numbers for Martin Truex, Jr. in the table below have NOT been updated since the news of his engine change. He probably won’t finish as high as expected.
| Driver | DraftKings Salary | Starting Position | Avg. Projected Finish | Avg Proj Base FPTS | Dollar Per FPT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | $9,900 | 7 | 02.8 | 46.6 | $212 |
| Kevin Harvick | $9,600 | 12 | 04.2 | 48.2 | $199 |
| Martin Truex Jr | $10,300 | 2 | 04.6 | 38.0 | $271 |
| Brad Keselowski | $10,100 | 6 | 04.8 | 41.0 | $246 |
| Kyle Busch | $9,700 | 1 | 05.6 | 34.4 | $282 |
| Kurt Busch | $8,200 | 5 | 06.0 | 37.6 | $218 |
| Jimmie Johnson | $10,000 | 19 | 07.2 | 48.6 | $206 |
| Matt Kenseth | $9,000 | 3 | 07.2 | 32.6 | $276 |
| Denny Hamlin | $8,900 | 18 | 08.2 | 45.6 | $195 |
| Chase Elliott | $9,300 | 25 | 08.6 | 51.8 | $180 |
| Jamie McMurray | $8,100 | 8 | 10.4 | 31.2 | $260 |
| Joey Logano | $9,100 | 9 | 10.6 | 31.8 | $286 |
| Ryan Newman | $7,600 | 10 | 13.0 | 28.0 | $271 |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr | $8,500 | 28 | 13.4 | 45.2 | $188 |
| Clint Bowyer | $8,600 | 20 | 13.4 | 37.2 | $231 |
| Ryan Blaney | $8,400 | 4 | 14.6 | 18.8 | $447 |
| Daniel Suarez | $7,900 | 14 | 14.8 | 28.4 | $278 |
| Erik Jones | $8,300 | 15 | 15.6 | 27.8 | $299 |
| Austin Dillon | $7,500 | 17 | 16.2 | 28.6 | $262 |
| Kasey Kahne | $7,700 | 26 | 17.6 | 34.8 | $221 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | $7,200 | 23 | 18.0 | 31.0 | $232 |
| AJ Allmendinger | $6,900 | 21 | 19.2 | 26.6 | $259 |
| Trevor Bayne | $7,000 | 22 | 19.8 | 26.4 | $265 |
| Darrell Wallace Jr | $6,200 | 16 | 20.4 | 19.2 | $323 |
| Ty Dillon | $6,800 | 27 | 20.8 | 29.4 | $231 |
| Chris Buescher | $6,600 | 29 | 21.6 | 29.8 | $221 |
| Michael McDowell | $5,000 | 11 | 23.2 | 08.6 | $581 |
| Paul Menard | $6,400 | 13 | 24.2 | 08.6 | $744 |
| David Ragan | $5,100 | 31 | 25.6 | 23.8 | $214 |
| Danica Patrick | $6,100 | 24 | 26.2 | 15.6 | $391 |
| Cole Whitt | $5,700 | 32 | 27.8 | 20.4 | $279 |
| Landon Cassill | $5,300 | 34 | 28.6 | 20.8 | $255 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | $5,400 | 30 | 30.4 | 13.2 | $409 |
| Gray Gaulding | $4,800 | 33 | 32.0 | 13.0 | $369 |
| Jeffrey Earnhardt | $5,200 | 37 | 32.2 | 16.6 | $313 |
| Cody Ware | $4,700 | 38 | 33.4 | 15.2 | $309 |
| Derrike Cope | $4,600 | 39 | 34.6 | 13.8 | $333 |
| Corey Lajoie | $4,500 | 35 | 34.8 | 09.4 | $479 |
Dude have you ever played nascar Fantasy Live
I have two teams in NASCAR.com Fantasy Live, both are near the top 500 overall.
i was looking for advice for that when i came across your site…im somewhere in the 1800’s overall and up…i think i found you through some dude named chad he did fantasy live on facebook then started charging for it..i just started playing yahoo and fox…you should think about doing a fantasy live but if not its cool
I used to write an article for Fantasy Live but with how the pricing changed, and how my team was locked in at certain prices with drivers that others might not be, I decided to drop it.
right…good point