If you’re not sure what to expect with the FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway on Sunday, go back and look at the tape of the Fontana race from earlier this year. Michigan and Fontana are sister tracks and the same cars that were good out west in March are good up north in June this weekend. Typically the drivers that start up front at Michigan also finish up there, and that might be even more true here on Sunday, as there’s really only one prominent groove on the track heading into race day. The Irish Hills is supposed to get some rain overnight, though, so the Cup Series drivers could be looking at a green race track on Sunday.
Also check out: DraftKings Drivers to Target at Michigan
DraftKings Drivers to Fade for the Michigan FireKeepers Casino 400
Chase Elliott ($9,400) – Chase Elliott is probably going to be one of the higher-owned drivers in DraftKings this weekend, and for good reason: he qualified 10th for Sunday’s FireKeepers Casino 400, and if he races anything like he did here last season, he’s going to put up a huge score. Elliott finished 2nd in both Michigan races in 2016 and it wouldn’t be surprising if he had another strong showing here on Sunday. But a potential race winner? I’m not seeing it. The #24 team struggled quite a bit to get a handle on the car here on Saturday, and by the end of Happy Hour, it still wasn’t quite where they wanted it. Chase was 18th-fastest in Practice #2 on Saturday morning but only jumped up to 15th on the Happy Hour speed chart after some major changes. Elliott is still worth some exposure here on Sunday but being under-weight on him looks to be the best move heading into race day.
Denny Hamlin ($8,600) – The King of Negative Place Differential qualified 5th this weekend, which means he has a very good chance at retaining his crown. This is the fourth Michigan race in a row that Denny Hamlin has qualified inside the top 5, and in the three proceeding this weekend, he has finished 9th, 33rd, and 5th. The thing about Hamlin is that he just doesn’t have a top 5 car right now; there’s a reason he only has two results inside that mark through the first 14 races of 2017. As far as DraftKings goes, when you put a driver that qualifies this high in your lineup, they need to have some dominator potential, and the only way Hamlin is going to lead laps on Sunday is if a plethora of other drivers have problems. He’s should be good for a finish between 9th and 15th, but in DraftKings that would only equate to somewhere between 19 and 31 base FPTS.
Kurt Busch ($8,500) – Kurt Busch is an interesting option in DraftKings this weekend, mainly because he qualified 15th, so there’s plenty of room for place differential FPTS there. Additionally, the #41 Ford has been really fast as of late, with four finishes of 8th or better in the last six Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series races overall–although it should be five of six if that cut tire didn’t happen at Kansas. Anyway, the #41 Ford hasn’t been as fast as expected this weekend at Michigan, and that’s not something you suddenly fix overnight. Additionally, Kurt really isn’t great at this track–he did win here back in 2015, but that was due to rain, and that’s one of only two top 5s he has here in his last thirteen starts. Busch has the potential to sneak into the top 10 before it’s all said and done on Sunday, but it’s hard to overlook the fact that the highest he ranked in any practice this weekend was 15th.
David Ragan ($6,300) – David Ragan’s salary took a major jump up this week, and when you combine that with the fact that he qualified 29th, there’s really no reason to even consider him with forming your DraftKings lineups–even more so because Ty Dillon ($6,100) will be starting from 37th and should finish in the high 20s. With that being said, David Ragan does know how to get around Michigan International Speedway, as he finished 22nd and 29th in the two races here last year. However, the #38 Ford didn’t make it higher than 29th on either of the speed charts on Saturday, so a good run out of Ragan on Sunday would be more due to possible attrition than anything else. That’s not the type of strategy to take in DraftKings at a track like Michigan. For what it’s worth, Ragan qualified 27th and finished 31st at the Fontana race earlier this year.
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($7,100) – Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. has been a favorite of mine in DraftKings all season long, but he won’t be on any of my lineups this Sunday. For whatever reason, Ricky just isn’t good at 2-mile race tracks. He did finish 5th at Fontana last year, but even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while. Other than that, Stenhouse has finished outside of the top 20 in five of the last six races at 2-mile tracks, and could make it six of the last seven here this weekend. Ricky has made eight career starts here at Michigan and has a career-best finish of 15th (back in 2014). Since then, he hasn’t had a result better than 25th. To top it all off, the #17 team struggled during both practice sessions on Saturday, and Ricky only running 18 laps in Happy Hour is concerning, as most teams ran significantly more than that. That low lap count tells me that the #17 team is completely lost with the car heading into race day. Not a good combination.
