Michigan International Speedway is a D-shaped intermediate race track, but it’s the fastest track on the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series schedule, and because of that, horsepower is at a premium this weekend. Additionally, track position means a lot here, as those who qualify up front usually finish up front as well. That could be even more apparent this weekend. Usually drivers have the ability to pick and choose which lane they want to run, but NASCAR decided to grind that artificial line into the track this weekend, and it might not be possible to run anywhere else. That means this race could easily come down to no mistakes on pit road and/or a good restart by the driver at the end.
With 200 laps scheduled, that means there will probably be close to 85 FPTS for fastest laps and 50 FPTS for laps led up for grabs on Sunday afternoon, the first number obviously depending on the number of caution laps.
Also check out: DraftKings Drivers to Fade at Michigan
High-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Michigan (over $9,000)
Kyle Larson ($10,200) – Don’t be surprised if Sunday’s FireKeepers Casino 400 turns out exactly like the Fontana race back in March. Michigan International Speedway and Fontana are sister tracks, and the cars that were strong back in the Auto Club race look to be just as strong this weekend. As far as Kyle Larson goes, he was also on the pole back at Fontana, and he wound up leading 110 laps, posting 38 fastest laps, and also getting the win. The #42 Chevrolet has the coveted 1st-place starting spot this weekend as well as the #1 pit stall, and was fast in every practice session this weekend. Four of the last seven Michigan races have been won from the pole, and Larson is definitely in contention this weekend. He’s the most recent race winner at this track and finished 3rd in this event last season.
Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,000) – Martin Truex, Jr. was the other star of the show at Fontana earlier this year, as he qualified 4th, led 73 laps, and posted 35 fastest laps before finishing 4th. He will roll off the grid from 2nd alongside Kyle Larson here at Michigan on Sunday, and there’s a very good chance that the majority of the laps led are going to come down to the #42 Chevrolet or the #78 Toyota. As far as Truex’s track record here at Michigan, it’s not stellar–but don’t let that keep you from picking him. This team has been blazing fast for over a month now, and that hasn’t changed this weekend. Truex was fastest in Practice #2 on Saturday and wound up 7th on the Happy Hour speed chart. As far as another driver that could get up there and lead some laps, Kyle Busch ($9,500) has to be the next best. That #18 Toyota was 2nd-fastest in every single practice session this weekend, and Rowdy has been leading a whole bunch of laps over the last month and a half.
Mid-Range DraftKings Drivers to Target at Michigan (between $7,000 and $9,000)
Erik Jones ($8,000) – The #77 Toyota will roll off the grid from 14th when the FireKeepers Casino 400 goes green on Sunday, but it’s a much better race car than that. Erik Jones was 8th-fastest in Practice #2 on Saturday morning with the 4th-best ten-lap average, and then during Happy Hour he was 5th on the overall speed chart. As mentioned before, you can expect Sunday’s race at Michigan to play out a lot like the Fontana race earlier this year, and if you remember back to that event, Jones had a great run going but did his usual late race fading and wound up finishing 12th. Still he had an average running position of 7th, so his car was much better than that. This #77 team is much better at finishing races now than they were earlier this year, so don’t be surprised if Jones winds up finishing inside the top 10 here on Sunday. He definitely has the car to do so.
Daniel Suarez ($7,500) – With DraftKings, you have to try and outsmart your competition. That means taking a chance with a guy like Daniel Suarez. The driver of the #19 Toyota will be under-owned this weekend, partly because he is going to be starting from the rear of the field for changing a tire he qualified on. However, that’s not a big deal here. It won’t take long for Suarez to get ahead of the low-tier cars, and he should be able to get to his qualifying position of 20th before the first segment is over. From there, it’ll be like nothing ever happened. Anyway, Suarez hasn’t finished worse than 15th in the last four Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series races, and don’t forget he wound up finishing 7th at Fontana earlier this year, which is the sister track of Michigan. Additionally, Daniel beat Kyle Busch in the Xfinity race here last season, so you can say he knows how to get around here. The #19 Toyota was 6th on the Happy Hour speed chart, and while Suarez won’t finish that high, he should easily end up between 11th and 15th on Sunday. That would translate to between 34 and 42 base FPTS in DraftKings.
Low-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Michigan (under $7,000)
Trevor Bayne ($6,500) – Trevor Bayne was a solid low-dollar DraftKings driver coming into the weekend, and his qualifying effort Friday only increased his value. The #6 Ford will roll off the grid from 27th when the FireKeepers Casino 400 goes green on Sunday, and as long as Bayne can pull off his normal top 20 finish, we’re looking at a mid-30s base FPT score out of him. The good news is that the #6 Ford is better than where it qualified, as Bayne was 20th-fastest on the Practice #2 speed chart, and then wound up 19th on the Happy Hour chart. Additionally, Trevor has finished 15th, 9th, 19th, and 15th in the last four June races here at Michigan, and you could argue that those came in worse equipment than he has now. The only concern with Bayne this weekend is his wife: she could go into labor at any minute, and if that happens during the race, Trevor may get out of the car and have Ryan Reed take over. Bayne will still get the score since (as long as he starts the race), but that situation isn’t ideal for fantasy owners.
Ty Dillon ($6,100) – The younger Dillon brother has been a great value pick in DraftKings this year, and this might be the race where he’s most valuable. In addition to getting a pretty big salary drop this week, Ty also had his qualifying time disallowed so he will start, and will be officially scored, from 37th place–dead last. Because of this, Dillon is going to be the highest-owned driver in every contest this weekend. This obviously creates a great fade opportunity, but at the same time, there’s no way for Ty Dillon to score negative FPTS in DraftKings on Sunday. He’s also a driver that rarely wrecks, so that’s another plus. Ty has raced in the last two FireKeepers Casino 400 and has finishes of 24th and 14th to his credit. Look for him to finish somewhere between there this weekend.
