These are my final thoughts and strategies to consider for Sunday afternoon’s race at Michigan International Speedway, as well as projected DraftKings FPTS for each driver. The chart below is explained but if you have any questions please don’t hesitate to contact me.
- We’re back to a somewhat “normal” race this weekend. Not only did the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series teams get two full practice sessions on Saturday, but we have 200 laps to run on Sunday, meaning the dominator points are back to normal, with 50 FPTS up for grabs for laps led, and probably close to 85 FPTS for fastest laps.
- Jimmie Johnson and Daniel Suarez will both be starting from the rear of the field on Sunday, although they’ll both still be scored from their original qualifying position (13th and 20th, respectively). Johnson had to go to a backup car after wrecking in practice, and Suarez’s team changed the qualifying tires after realizing one of them was flat. This will scare some people away from putting them in their lineup but I don’t see it as a big deal, especially with Johnson–he’s used to coming through the field by now.
- Ty Dillon is another driver that will start at the back of the field on Sunday, but he will also be scored there (37th). His qualifying time was disallowed on Friday after he ended up 24th. I expect Ty to finish around that mark, and at just $6,100, he’s a must play in DraftKings this week.
- Kyle Larson looks to be the favorite to both dominate and win the FireKeepers Casino 400 on Sunday, but Martin Truex, Jr. and Kyle Busch both have cars that are capable of leading laps, too. When targeting dominator points this weekend, that’s the core drivers that are most likely to be out front. Larson has the biggest advantage, as he is on the pole, and four of the last seven Michigan races have been won by the #1 qualifier.
Projected Base FPTS at Michigan
The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from five different ranking systems, using both mathematical equations as well as personal rankings. This chart also includes the average projected base DraftKings FPTS–which doesn’t take into account fastest laps or laps led points–as well as the dollar per FPT. I don’t try to project fastest laps or laps led–that’s up to you. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by the average projected finish of the drivers.
| Driver | DraftKings Salary | Starting Position | Avg. Projected Finish | Avg Proj Base FPTS | Dollar Per FPT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | $10,200 | 1 | 02.4 | 41.4 | $246 |
| Kevin Harvick | $9,900 | 11 | 04.0 | 47.6 | $208 |
| Martin Truex Jr | $10,000 | 2 | 05.2 | 35.6 | $281 |
| Brad Keselowski | $9,700 | 12 | 05.2 | 45.6 | $213 |
| Kyle Busch | $9,500 | 4 | 07.2 | 34.8 | $273 |
| Chase Elliott | $9,400 | 10 | 08.0 | 38.0 | $247 |
| Jimmie Johnson | $9,800 | 13 | 08.8 | 39.4 | $249 |
| Jamie McMurray | $8,200 | 8 | 08.8 | 34.4 | $238 |
| Joey Logano | $9,200 | 7 | 09.4 | 32.2 | $286 |
| Ryan Blaney | $8,700 | 6 | 09.6 | 30.8 | $282 |
| Kurt Busch | $8,500 | 15 | 10.0 | 39.0 | $218 |
| Matt Kenseth | $8,900 | 9 | 10.4 | 32.2 | $276 |
| Erik Jones | $8,000 | 14 | 10.8 | 36.4 | $220 |
| Denny Hamlin | $8,600 | 5 | 11.2 | 26.6 | $323 |
| Clint Bowyer | $6,800 | 3 | 13.0 | 21.0 | $324 |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr | $7,800 | 17 | 14.0 | 33.0 | $236 |
| Daniel Suarez | $7,500 | 20 | 14.0 | 36.0 | $208 |
| Ryan Newman | $7,200 | 19 | 15.2 | 32.6 | $221 |
| Austin Dillon | $7,600 | 18 | 15.4 | 31.2 | $244 |
| Kasey Kahne | $7,700 | 16 | 17.8 | 24.4 | $316 |
| Trevor Bayne | $6,400 | 27 | 18.6 | 33.8 | $189 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | $7,100 | 21 | 18.8 | 27.4 | $259 |
| Ty Dillon | $6,100 | 37 | 20.2 | 40.6 | $150 |
| Chris Buescher | $5,900 | 24 | 22.4 | 23.2 | $254 |
| Paul Menard | $6,500 | 30 | 22.6 | 28.8 | $226 |
| Darrell Wallace Jr | $5,700 | 26 | 23.6 | 22.8 | $250 |
| Michael McDowell | $5,500 | 22 | 24.6 | 16.8 | $327 |
| AJ Allmendinger | $6,600 | 25 | 24.8 | 19.4 | $340 |
| Danica Patrick | $6,200 | 23 | 25.0 | 17.0 | $365 |
| David Ragan | $6,300 | 29 | 25.6 | 21.8 | $289 |
| Landon Cassill | $5,200 | 36 | 29.6 | 20.8 | $250 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | $5,300 | 28 | 29.8 | 12.4 | $427 |
| Ryan Sieg | $4,800 | 31 | 30.4 | 14.2 | $338 |
| Cole Whitt | $4,900 | 33 | 31.0 | 15.0 | $327 |
| Corey Lajoie | $4,600 | 32 | 34.4 | 07.2 | $639 |
| Jeffrey Earnhardt | $4,500 | 35 | 34.6 | 09.8 | $459 |
