If you’re not quite sure what to expect with Sunday’s Toyota/Save Mart 350 race at Sonoma, then don’t worry: you’re not alone. The races at this track are some of the hardest to predict, and almost always have two or three surprising finishers up front. Starting position really doesn’t mean a lot here, as putting down one fast lap during qualifying doesn’t mean a driver will be good during the actual race at all. There’s only 110 laps scheduled for Sunday, which means place differential FPTS are weighed more heavily in DraftKings than they are with other races. For those reasons, the main drivers to avoid in DraftKings on Sunday are going to mostly be the ones that qualified up front.
Also check out: DraftKings Drivers to Target at Sonoma
DraftKings Drivers to Fade for the Sonoma Toyota/Save Mart 350
A.J. Allmendinger ($9,500) – Yep, you read that right. Pretty much the only time A.J. Allmendinger is considered a threat to win is at road course races, yet here he is on my Fade list for Sonoma. Let me explain. Allmendinger consistently looks like a great fantasy option whenever we come to this track but consistently disappoints on race day. The main problem is that A.J. is one of the most aggressive drivers in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series, and that doesn’t work at this track. To be successful at Sonoma, you need to take care of your equipment, and that’s just not Allmendinger’s way of doing things. That’s the main reason he has a career average finish of 20.9 at this race track and zero top 5s. DraftKings jacked up Allmendinger’s price this weekend, and with him qualifying 5th, he’s going to have to dominate a good portion of this race in order to be a viable option–and I just don’t see that happening.
Brad Keselowski ($8,600) – Obviously there are exceptions to the rule, but usually when a driver doesn’t really like a race track, he or she doesn’t run very well there. Case in point: Brad Keselowski at Sonoma. BK has made seven career starts at this serpentine track and his best finish thus far has been 10th–and I don’t see that changing this weekend. Keselowski did qualify back in 23rd for Sunday’s Toyota/Save Mart 350, though, which makes him a good candidate for a decent amount of place differential FPTS in DraftKings. With that being said, the #2 Ford wasn’t very impressive in either practice session here on Friday, so a good finish would probably be more due to strategy than anything else. It’s not impossible, obviously, I just personally don’t like relying on something crazy happening. Momentum-wise, Keselowski has finished 16th or worse in three of the last four races. I’ll have some exposure this weekend, but not a lot.
Jamie McMurray ($8,500) – Jamie McMurray is no stranger to starting up front at Sonoma. In fact, Sunday will be the sixth time in fifteen career starts that he will be helping bring the field to the green. With that being said, don’t forget that it’s not about where you start, but where you finish when it comes to Fantasy NASCAR. One thing that Jamie McMurray is a stranger to here at Sonoma is leading laps, as he has only led 41 laps throughout his entire career here, and only 11 in the last nine years (despite winning two poles and having one 2nd-place qualifying effort during that same span). McMurray might lead a lap or two here on Sunday, but with Kyle Larson, Kyle Busch, and Martin Truex, Jr. all up there looking to dominate this race, it’s hard to imagine Jamie Mac not getting shuffled out of the way. And at $8,500, he’s definitely not worth it in DraftKings.
Ryan Blaney ($7,300) – Ryan Blaney qualified 7th for this weekend’s Toyota/Save Mart 350, and while that is definitely a good effort for the #21 race team, that immediately made him a bad option in DraftKings. Blaney was interviewed after qualifying and pretty much said that the reason he’s not very good at this track is because it requires traits that he is currently lacking–specifically driving finesse and patience. The #21 Ford was outside of the top 15 in both practice sessions here on Friday and should end up outside of that mark when the checkered flag waves here on Sunday as well. Blaney wound up finishing 23rd here at Sonoma last year and 19th at Watkins Glen.
Erik Jones ($7,000) – There are quite a few ‘big name’ drivers starting in the back this weekend, one of them being Erik Jones. The primary #77 Toyota was totaled in practice on Friday, so the team had to bring out a backup car. But that’s actually quite irrelevant this weekend, because the fact of the matter is that Erik Jones hasn’t shown any sort of speed at Sonoma thus far. He ended up 34th on both practice session speed charts Friday and then improved to 30th-fastest in qualifying. Obviously this opens up the door to a huge place differential score in DraftKings, but at the same time, you have to have the car (and driver) to work through the field. Due to his low price, a good percentage of DraftKings players will probably roll the dice with Erik Jones this weekend, but it’s just difficult imagining him cracking the top 20 on Sunday. A good mark I like to see my DraftKings drivers hit is $200 of salary per FPT, and in order for Jones to do that this weekend, he needs to finish 19th. I’ll fade him and take my chances with someone else.
