DraftKings players get a bit of a different experience this weekend, as the Toyota/Save Mart 350 is set to go green a little after 3 pm Eastern on Sunday at Sonoma Raceway. The races at road course tracks are always tricky for Fantasy NASCAR players, mainly because it’s usually not the best cars that finish up front. Instead, all teams spend the day setting themselves up for the final fuel run and hope their strategy plays out. This usually involves a fuel mileage gamble or two. Additionally, this is the first road course race with NASCAR’s new Stages, and even the drivers aren’t quite sure what to expect. Don’t be afraid to roll the dice with some off-sequence drivers in DraftKings on Sunday.
With just 110 laps scheduled, that means there will probably be close to 45 FPTS for fastest laps and only 27.5 FPTS for laps led up for grabs on Sunday afternoon, the first number obviously depending on the number of caution laps. As stated before, dominator points shouldn’t be emphasized as much this weekend.
Also check out: DraftKings Drivers to Fade at Sonoma
High-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Sonoma (over $9,000)
Clint Bowyer ($9,400) – Clint Bowyer was one of the few drivers that looked good during both practice sessions here on Friday, and for that reason I have him ranked just a bit higher than his teammates Kevin Harvick ($9,900) and Kurt Busch ($9,800). Obviously the lower DraftKings salary helps, too. Still, with that being said, all three of these Stewart-Haas Racing drivers are excellent picks this weekend, and they all have the opportunity for some nice place differential FPTS as well; Bowyer qualified 13th while Harvick will start 12th and Kurt Busch will roll off from 17th. As far as Clint specifically, though, he’s the safest Fantasy NASCAR option here at Sonoma and it’s highly unlikely that he disappoints here on Sunday. Bowyer owns the best average finish (11.5) among active drivers at this race track and has finished inside the top 5 in six of his eleven career starts here. He should be one of the top scoring drivers in DraftKings on Sunday.
Kyle Larson ($9,300) – The general rule of thumb at Sonoma is to not pick the pole sitter. And when it comes to DraftKings and how much more valuable place differential FPTS are going to be in this 110-lap race than normal, that general rule of thumb makes sense. But Kyle Larson is a different story. The #42 team worked extensively on long runs during Happy Hour here on Friday, and not only wound up with the fastest single lap, but also the best ten-lap average. So from a potential dominator perspective, Larson is in the best position to start the race, and it’s not like he hasn’t dominated at tracks before. Sure, there are guys like Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,300) and Kyle Busch ($10,200) that also qualified up front this weekend–and are both as likely to dominate as Larson–but you can save yourself quite a bit of cap space by going with the pole sitter as opposed to the 3rd- or 4th-place qualifiers. At $9,300, I think Larson is definitely worth a gamble in DraftKings this weekend, because he has a car that can go out and win this race. Kyle has finished 12th and 15th in the last two races here at Sonoma.
Mid-Range DraftKings Drivers to Target at Sonoma (between $7,000 and $9,000)
Denny Hamlin ($8,900) – Denny Hamlin is going to be overlooked by quite a few DraftKings players this weekend, simply because he hasn’t been a great road course racer throughout his career, as well as his $8,900 price for Sonoma. Drivers at this price tend to be low-owned on race days simply because it’s one of those in-between salaries. Anyway, Denny Hamlin should’ve won this race last season but finished 2nd after over-driving the final corner. He then went on to win at Watkins Glen, the other road course, later in the year. I like to think that road course success (for those that aren’t always running up front at the track type) goes in 2-3 year spurts, so Hamlin should have another strong showing this weekend. The #11 Toyota will roll off the grid from 14th when we go green on Sunday–which provides the opportunity for a decent amount of place differential points–and was 2nd-fastest in the opening practice session of the weekend. Momentum-wise, this #11 team is really heating up as of late, with three finishes of 8th or better in the last four Cup Series races and no result worse than 12th over the last month.
Matt Kenseth ($7,500) – Matt Kenseth is not good at Sonoma, but he’s not terrible, either. That’s why he’s priced as low as he is in DraftKings. And while it’s hard to imagine the #20 Toyota finishing much better than 20th here on Sunday, Kenseth should be on most of your DraftKings lineups. He’s going to start from dead last (38th) when the Toyota/Save Mart 350 goes green on Sunday, therefore it’s impossible for him to have negative FPTS this weekend. Kenseth’s predicted extremely high ownership does create a great fade opportunity, but at the same time, it’s pretty slim-pickings in this price range, and dollar-for-dollar he’ll probably be one of the best values here on Sunday. A 21st-place result out of Kenseth here on Sunday will equal 40 base FPTS in DraftKings, so this is one of those drivers you should just go with the masses.
Low-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Sonoma (under $7,000)
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($6,700) – Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. is terrible at road course tracks. Terrible as in he’s never finished better than 20th in four career starts at Sonoma and he’s never wound up better than 18th over at the other road course, Watkins Glen. So why is he on the Target list this weekend? As stated before, don’t be afraid to go with the off-sequence picks on Sunday. Stenhouse has finished better than expected in almost every single race this season, and there’s no reason to think that that momentum won’t carry over into a track like Sonoma. Additionally, the #17 Ford was 3rd-fastest in Practice #2 here on Friday, so at least we know Ricky is capable of putting one fast lap up. When you get down in this price range, you’re mostly looking for place differential FPTS. However, Stenhouse has also been getting a good chunk of finish FPTS as well. It’s a risky pick, but don’t forget that the Roush-Fenway Fords have been faster in race trim than qualifying trim all season long. Stenhouse qualified 22nd this weekend, which (on a positive note) will be his best starting spot ever here at Sonoma.
Ty Dillon ($6,400) – Ty Dillon is basically driving a stronger version of the #13 car that Casey Mears was in the past six years, and while they are two completely different drivers, it’s noteworthy to remember that Mears did finish 15th, 16th, and 13th here at Sonoma in the races from 2012 to 2014. With that being said, Ty Dillon is making his first career road course Cup start here this weekend, and history is definitely not on his side, as rookies tend to really struggle here their first time out. With that being said, Ty is priced low enough this weekend that he’s worth rolling the dice on. He qualified back in 35th for Sunday’s Toyota/Save Mart 350 but he should be around a 25th-place car before it’s all said and done. With a little strategy, this #13 team might be able to turn that into a top 20. Dillon didn’t show a lot in practice this weekend, but that’s just going to keep others away from him. In DraftKings, Ty has been one of the most valuable low-dollar drivers all season, and that won’t change this weekend.
