These are my final thoughts and strategies to consider for Sunday afternoon’s race at Sonoma Raceway, as well as projected DraftKings FPTS for each driver. The chart below is explained but if you have any questions please don’t hesitate to contact me.
- We usually go through leader cycles here at Sonoma, which means that it’s rare for one driver to lead more than 40 of the 110 laps. Last year, for example, we had four drivers lead 20+ laps. With this being the first road course race with NASCAR’s new Stages, don’t be surprised if there are a whole bunch of leaders on Sunday.
- Place differential should be weighed more heavily this weekend when constructing your DraftKings lineups. The Cup Series drivers are only going to run 110 laps here on Sunday, which severely limits the amount of dominator points available.
- Looking at the last five years of Sonoma races, the five winners have started from the following spots: 10th, 11th, 4th, 14th, and 6th. Meanwhile, the pole sitter has finished 4th, 37th, 4th, 25th, and 8th.
- The race leader in the most laps led category here at Sonoma hasn’t won since Martin Truex, Jr. did it back in 2013. Additionally, this race hasn’t been won from the pole since 2004.
- For the second week in a row, Kyle Larson looks to be the favorite to both dominate with Martin Truex, Jr. and Kyle Busch both close behind. All three of those drivers start inside the top 5 on Sunday so they’re going to have to pick up some dominator points in order to be viable in DraftKings.
Projected Base FPTS at Sonoma
The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from five different ranking systems, using both mathematical equations as well as personal rankings. This chart also includes the average projected base DraftKings FPTS–which doesn’t take into account fastest laps or laps led points–as well as the dollar per FPT. I don’t try to project fastest laps or laps led–that’s up to you. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by the average projected finish of the drivers.
| Driver | DraftKings Salary | Starting Position | Avg. Projected Finish | Avg Proj Base FPTS | Dollar Per FPT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Truex Jr | $10,300 | 3 | 02.8 | 42.0 | $245 |
| Kyle Busch | $10,200 | 4 | 03.0 | 43.2 | $236 |
| Kevin Harvick | $9,900 | 12 | 03.6 | 49.4 | $200 |
| Kyle Larson | $9,300 | 1 | 05.2 | 35.2 | $264 |
| Kurt Busch | $9,800 | 17 | 05.4 | 50.8 | $193 |
| Clint Bowyer | $9,400 | 13 | 05.8 | 45.4 | $207 |
| Jamie McMurray | $8,500 | 2 | 06.8 | 32.4 | $262 |
| Jimmie Johnson | $9,600 | 24 | 08.2 | 51.6 | $186 |
| AJ Allmendinger | $9,500 | 5 | 09.6 | 29.8 | $319 |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr | $8,100 | 10 | 09.8 | 34.4 | $235 |
| Denny Hamlin | $8,900 | 14 | 10.2 | 37.6 | $237 |
| Joey Logano | $9,000 | 18 | 10.4 | 41.2 | $218 |
| Brad Keselowski | $8,600 | 23 | 12.6 | 41.8 | $206 |
| Chase Elliott | $8,300 | 8 | 12.8 | 26.4 | $314 |
| Kasey Kahne | $8,000 | 21 | 13.2 | 38.6 | $207 |
| Ryan Newman | $7,900 | 20 | 14.0 | 36.0 | $219 |
| Daniel Suarez | $6,900 | 11 | 14.6 | 25.8 | $267 |
| Matt Kenseth | $7,500 | 38 | 18.0 | 46.0 | $163 |
| Paul Menard | $7,400 | 15 | 18.0 | 23.0 | $322 |
| Ryan Blaney | $7,300 | 7 | 18.2 | 14.6 | $500 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | $6,700 | 22 | 19.0 | 28.0 | $239 |
| Danica Patrick | $5,800 | 6 | 21.2 | 07.6 | $763 |
| Austin Dillon | $7,100 | 19 | 21.6 | 19.8 | $359 |
| Trevor Bayne | $6,600 | 25 | 21.6 | 25.8 | $256 |
| Erik Jones | $7,000 | 30 | 22.4 | 29.2 | $240 |
| Chris Buescher | $6,200 | 9 | 22.6 | 07.8 | $795 |
| Ty Dillon | $6,400 | 35 | 24.0 | 31.0 | $206 |
| Michael McDowell | $6,100 | 16 | 24.2 | 11.6 | $526 |
| Billy Johnson | $7,700 | 26 | 26.2 | 17.6 | $438 |
| David Ragan | $5,000 | 28 | 27.8 | 16.4 | $305 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | $5,400 | 27 | 28.8 | 13.4 | $403 |
| Alon Day | $4,700 | 32 | 29.6 | 16.8 | $280 |
| Landon Cassill | $5,300 | 31 | 30.4 | 14.2 | $373 |
| Cole Whitt | $4,900 | 29 | 31.8 | 09.4 | $521 |
| Boris Said | $5,100 | 34 | 32.0 | 14.0 | $364 |
| Josh Bilicki | $4,600 | 33 | 34.8 | 07.4 | $622 |
| Tommy Regan | $4,500 | 37 | 35.2 | 10.6 | $425 |
| Kevin O'Connell | $4,800 | 36 | 35.6 | 08.8 | $545 |
