For the third race in a row, it’s going to be better to focus mainly on place differential FPTS in DraftKings than anything else. Trying to predict fastest laps at a track like Daytona is nearly impossible, and with only 160 laps scheduled for Saturday night–although that could decrease, as there is rain in the forecast–there’s not a lot of laps led FPTS up for grabs (40). Additionally, it’s rare to see one car lead for more than 50 laps at Daytona. Most of the best-qualifying cars should probably be avoided this week, although it’s a good idea to mix one or two into a lineup with place differential drivers.
Also check out: DraftKings Drivers to Target at Daytona 2
Click here for DraftKings scoring projections for the 2017 Coke Zero 400
DraftKings Drivers to Fade for the Daytona 2 Coke Zero 400
Clint Bowyer ($8,800) – This may be surprising, but let’s just look at the facts here: Clint Bowyer is coming off of a top 5 finish at Sonoma, but don’t forget that that track is one that driver talent has a far bigger impact on the race than normal. What’s noteworthy there is that that was Bowyer’s first result better than 9th since the Bristol race back in April, and only his second finish better than 14th in the last eight races. As far as restrictor plate tracks go, Clint is far superior at Talladega compared to Daytona. His record here isn’t terrible (16.4 average finish) but at the same time, Bowyer has just three top 5s at DIS in 23 total starts. The #14 Ford qualified 11th for Saturday night’s race, and because of that–along with the fact that he’s moderately priced–I expect him to be about 20% owned in DraftKings. I could be wrong about Bowyer this weekend, but he’ll only be on a limited number of my lineups.
Dale Earnhardt, Jr. ($10,300) – DraftKings made Junebug the highest-priced driver this weekend, so you’re going to need a massive score out of him to justify that price. And, chances are, that’s not going to happen. The #88 Chevrolet was the fastest car in qualifying on Friday, and because of that, every position lower than 1st that Junior finishes on Saturday night is just another DraftKings FPT lower. There is a chance that Earnhardt goes out and dominates this year’s Coke Zero 400–I mean, it’s Daytona, and those type of things tend to happen with NASCAR–but at the same time, it was mentioned during the practice sessions on Thursday that the Chevrolets looked to be the slowest of the three manufacturers in the draft. Junior is a viable option in other Fantasy NASCAR leagues, but not DraftKings.
Jamie McMurray ($8,100) – This #1 team posted yet another top 10 finish at Sonoma last weekend and has now notched ten of them through the first sixteen races of the 2017 season. Sounds pretty good, right? It is, don’t get me wrong, but that doesn’t automatically translate into success here at Daytona. It’s very possible that Jamie McMurray challenges for another good finish here on Saturday night, but more likely than not, he’s going to wind up with negative place differential when the checkered flag waves; over the last five Daytona races, Jamie Mac has finished worse than he started in each of them. This weekend, the #1 Chevrolet qualified 8th, and that’s just far too high for me to take a shot with McMurray. DraftKings priced Jamie correctly this weekend, but due to how the scoring is going to play out on Saturday night, I’d rather go with someone like Austin Dillon ($7,900), who starts 19th and has a far more consistent record here at Daytona.
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($8,300) – For the record, I will be picking Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. on quite a few of my other Fantasy NASCAR rosters. But as far as DraftKings goes, there’s no chance Ricky makes it on to any of my lineups. First, DraftKings priced him entirely too high. For a guy that hovers around the $7,000 price range, a jump up to $8,300 is insane. Sure, he won the Talladega race this year, but his career average finish here at Daytona is 19.7, with two top 10 finishes in ten total starts. What really eliminated Stenhouse’s viability, though, was his qualifying effort on Thursday: the #17 Ford wound up 6th when it was all said and done, and that’s just far too high to take a shot with a driver priced at $8,300. For what it’s worth, though, Ricky did post a career-best finish in this race one year ago (5th).
Erik Jones ($7,400) -When it comes to restrictor plate races, we typically see the same drivers finishing up front in at least three of the four in-season races at Daytona and Talladega. It happens pretty much every year unless the races get really wacky with wrecks and everything else. Of course, the opposite tends to be true as well, as those who have finished in the back in the previous races that season tend to keep the streak alive. Looking at Erik Jones’ record this year, he finished 38th in the Daytona 500 and wound up 33rd at Talladega back in May. He qualified 17th for Saturday night’s Coke Zero 400, and because of his $7,400 price tag, should make his way on to quite a few DraftKings lineups. With that being said, I think the best move will be to fade Erik Jones this weekend. I won’t have much of his teammate, Martin Truex, Jr. ($9,700), either.
