These are my final thoughts and strategies to consider for Saturday night’s Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway, as well as projected DraftKings FPTS for each driver. The chart below is explained but if you have any questions please don’t hesitate to contact me.
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- Dominator points, dominator points, dominator points. Saturday night’s race is scheduled to be 500 laps in length, which means there will be 125 FPTS awarded for laps led and probably around 210 FPTS awarded for fastest laps (depending on cautions). You need to capture as many dominator points as possible with your DraftKings lineups this weekend.
- Unlike last week, earning the pole doesn’t particularly mean that that driver will lead the most laps. Three of the last five Bristol races have seen the pole sitter lead less than 55 laps.
- Track position means a lot at short tracks, but that doesn’t necessarily mean starting position. Over the last five Bristol races, just over four of the top 10 qualifiers per race also finished inside that mark.
- We raced here at Bristol back in April, and you can click here for those results.
- Back in April, pole sitter Kyle Larson led the way in dominator points with 77.5 FPTS (54 fastest laps, 202 laps led), although Martin Truex, Jr.–who started 3rd–was close behind with 73.5 FPTS (89 fastest laps, 116 laps led).
- Kevin Harvick has had the highest number of fastest laps in five of the last seven Bristol races.
Projected FPTS at Bristol 2
The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from five different ranking systems, using both mathematical equations as well as personal rankings. This chart also includes the average projected base + laps led DraftKings FPTS as well as the dollar per FPT. I don’t try to project fastest laps–that’s up to you. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.
| Driver | DraftKings Salary | Starting Position | Avg. Projected Finish | Proj Laps Led | Avg Proj Base + Laps Led FPTS | Dollar Per FPT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | $10,500 | 2 | 04.4 | 121 | 68.1 | $154 |
| Martin Truex Jr | $10,700 | 6 | 05.2 | 95 | 64.0 | $167 |
| Kyle Busch | $10,800 | 18 | 05.8 | 49 | 63.3 | $171 |
| Kevin Harvick | $9,800 | 29 | 06.8 | 12 | 63.0 | $156 |
| Jimmie Johnson | $9,300 | 21 | 06.4 | 39 | 62.0 | $150 |
| Matt Kenseth | $9,400 | 5 | 06.2 | 33 | 45.5 | $207 |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr | $8,000 | 31 | 16.4 | 2 | 42.7 | $187 |
| Denny Hamlin | $9,600 | 7 | 06.0 | 14 | 42.5 | $226 |
| Clint Bowyer | $8,800 | 9 | 07.6 | 12 | 40.8 | $216 |
| Brad Keselowski | $10,100 | 17 | 10.8 | 3 | 40.2 | $252 |
| Kurt Busch | $8,400 | 25 | 15.6 | 3 | 38.6 | $218 |
| Erik Jones | $8,700 | 1 | 10.6 | 54 | 37.3 | $233 |
| Chase Elliott | $9,200 | 4 | 06.8 | 11 | 37.2 | $248 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | $7,700 | 14 | 11.6 | 4 | 35.8 | $215 |
| Jamie McMurray | $8,500 | 11 | 10.6 | 7 | 35.6 | $239 |
| Joey Logano | $9,000 | 8 | 09.4 | 7 | 35.0 | $258 |
| Daniel Suarez | $8,100 | 12 | 11.8 | 9 | 34.7 | $234 |
| Ryan Blaney | $8,900 | 10 | 12.0 | 11 | 32.8 | $272 |
| Trevor Bayne | $6,900 | 20 | 16.0 | 1 | 32.3 | $214 |
| Ryan Newman | $7,200 | 13 | 13.2 | 3 | 31.4 | $230 |
| Paul Menard | $6,700 | 27 | 21.4 | 0 | 28.2 | $238 |
| Austin Dillon | $7,500 | 16 | 17.0 | 1 | 26.3 | $286 |
| Ty Dillon | $6,800 | 22 | 20.2 | 0 | 25.6 | $266 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | $5,800 | 34 | 26.4 | 0 | 25.2 | $230 |
| Danica Patrick | $6,500 | 24 | 22.0 | 0 | 24.0 | $271 |
| Aric Almirola | $6,300 | 28 | 24.0 | 0 | 24.0 | $263 |
| Cole Whitt | $5,400 | 32 | 26.2 | 0 | 23.6 | $229 |
| AJ Allmendinger | $6,200 | 23 | 22.8 | 0 | 21.4 | $290 |
| Michael McDowell | $5,900 | 26 | 24.4 | 0 | 21.2 | $278 |
| Chris Buescher | $6,000 | 15 | 19.6 | 0 | 19.8 | $303 |
| Landon Cassill | $5,700 | 33 | 28.6 | 0 | 19.8 | $288 |
| Reed Sorenson | $5,300 | 39 | 31.8 | 0 | 19.4 | $273 |
| Joey Gase | $5,000 | 40 | 32.8 | 0 | 18.4 | $272 |
| Gray Gaulding | $4,700 | 37 | 32.0 | 0 | 17.0 | $276 |
| Jeffrey Earnhardt | $4,800 | 38 | 32.8 | 0 | 16.4 | $293 |
| Corey Lajoie | $4,600 | 35 | 31.6 | 0 | 15.8 | $291 |
| BJ McLeod | $4,900 | 36 | 32.4 | 0 | 15.2 | $322 |
| JJ Yeley | $5,200 | 30 | 30.8 | 00.0 | 12.4 | $419 |
| David Ragan | $5,500 | 19 | 25.6 | 00.0 | 11.8 | $466 |
| Kasey Kahne | $7,400 | 3 | 21.0 | 09.0 | 07.3 | $1,021 |
