In terms of strategy with your DraftKings lineups, short track races can almost be thought of as similar to a restrictor plate track. One wrong move can end a driver’s night early, as can getting caught up into a wreck. Therefore, it’s important to think about pivot options when crafting your lineups for Saturday night’s race. Some drivers are going to be very high-owned in this weekend’s Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race, and if he/she would happen to have some issues during the race, those that roll the dice with their lesser-owned counterpart will be the ones that are in the black when it’s all said and done.
Click here to see my DraftKings FPTS Projections for this week’s race.
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DraftKings Pivots for the 2017 Bristol Night Race
Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,700) instead of Kyle Larson ($10,500) – There are plenty of reasons to go with Kyle Larson over Martin Truex, Jr. on Saturday night, the first of which being the $200 cap savings. Additionally, Larson qualified on the outside pole for this weekend’s Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race, and the last time we were here he led over 200 laps from the pole before finishing 6th. Additionally, Larson loves Bristol Motor Speedway, and Truex has just three top 10 finishes in 23 career starts here–and no that’s not a typo. However, let’s not forget who we’re talking about: Martin Truex, Jr. is a fastest lap monster in the DFS world, with almost double the amount of Larson this season (825 to 413). Additionally, Truex posted a race-high 89 fastest laps here back in April (along with 116 laps led). As far as this weekend goes, the #78 Toyota has a bit more room for place differential FPTS–Truex qualified 6th–and he’s probably going to be significantly lower owned that both Larson and Kyle Busch ($10,800) on Saturday night. Another reason I like Truex over Larson on Saturday night? Click here to check out the latter’s record on short tracks over the last few years. For comparison, click here for Truex’s. I have a little bit of concern about the #78 Toyota’s lack of ‘normal’ speed this weekend, but let’s not forget that his teammate, Erik Jones ($8,700), in the #77 Toyota has an absolute rocket ship, and he very well could lead the first portion of this race and keep Larson running back in 2nd.
Joey Gase ($5,000) instead of Matt DiBenedetto ($5,800) – For a driver like Matt DiBenedetto and a team like the #32 crew, their record here at Bristol Motor Speedway is impressive: top 20 finishes in each of the last three races here, including a very impressive 6th-place effort in last year’s April race. Because of this, as well as the fact that DiBenedetto has been running pretty well as of late–25.7 average finish over the last six races, better than Jimmie Johnson–they have him priced appropriately at $5,800 for Saturday night’s Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race. He also qualified back in 34th, so he’s going to be the highest-owned sub-$6,000 driver for sure. And while DiBenedetto is still my top pick in this price range, I don’t mind pivoting down to Joey Gase at $5,000. Not only does that save $800 in cap space, but Gase qualified dead last in his #23 Toyota this weekend. He can’t have negative place differential points on Saturday night, and the #23 team has had some of their best finishes at short tracks this year: 24th at Dover and 29th at Martinsville and the first Bristol race. Gase was also one of the only “super cheap” DraftKings drivers to actually try during the practice sessions on Friday, running 56 laps in the first session and 65 laps in the second. For comparison, Gray Gaulding, BJ McLeod, Corey LaJoie, JJ Yeley, Timmy Hill, and Reed Sorenson all ran less than 60 laps combined in those two sessions.
Paul Menard ($6,700) instead of Trevor Bayne ($6,900) or Ty Dillon ($6,800) – The #6 Ford and #13 Chevrolet are both faster race cars than the #27 Chevrolet this weekend, but there is some upside here with Paul Menard. He actually didn’t look too shabby in the two practice sessions here on Friday (23rd- and 20th-fastest) and he has more upside in terms of place differential on Saturday night, as Menard qualified 27th while Bayne and Ty Dillon will start 20th and 22nd, respectively. In addition to providing a tiny amount of cap relief, Menard also hasn’t been terrible here at Bristol as of late, with eight finishes of 16th or better in the last eleven races at “The Bullring.” That includes his 16th-place effort here back in April after qualifying 26th. Finally, Menard is actually running a little bit better over the last couple of months than we are used to seeing, with nine straight finishes of 22nd or better before wrecking out of Michigan last week.
