Sunday night’s race at Darlington is probably going to be a lot of ‘follow the leader’ type of racing. It’s just the nature of this track, and if we get a late caution, the top 10 drivers will easily get jumbled up depending on who makes the right moves on the restart. Darlington is an old, abrasive track that eats up tires, which adds even more variables into this race: which driver will be able to conserve their tires the most? Will any teams make dumb calls on pit road late in the race (like Clint Bowyer at Bristol two weeks ago)? And, as mentioned before, who’s gonna blow a tire with five laps to go and mess everything up? (My money’s on Corey LaJoie).
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DraftKings Pivots for the 2017 Bojangles’ Southern 500
Brad Keselowski ($9,200) instead of Jimmie Johnson ($9,100) – The more I think about it, the more I truly believe that Brad Keselowski is going to be an overlooked gem in DraftKings on Sunday night. Just think about it: he qualified 6th, which limits his place differential potential, and there’s at least five drivers that are more likely to lead laps during the race than Kez. However, let’s not forget about fastest laps. Brad Keselowski has the 3rd-most fastest laps in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series this season, and that’s even more impressive when you consider the fact that over the last ten races he’s only had double-digit fastest laps in three events. The good news is that this #2 Ford is looking speedier as we get closer and closer to the playoffs, and Keselowski actually looked pretty damn good in practice here at Darlington this weekend, posting the 3rd- and 6th-fastest laps in the two sessions on Friday while ending up 10th- and 4th-best in terms of ten-lap average. What I really like about BK this weekend, though? He had 41 fastest laps in last year’s Southern 500 as well as 41 fastest laps in the 2015 event. He finished 9th and 2nd in those two races, respectively.
Chris Buscher ($6,600) instead of Ty Dillon ($6,800) – Ty Dillon has been great for place differential in Fantasy NASCAR this season, but Chris Buescher is a close 2nd in this tier of talent. In fact, Buescher has started 25th or worse in thirteen races this year and has had positive place differential in all but one of them–and that first Bristol race when he wrecked out. In the twelve other events, Buescher has averaged a +11 place differential from start to finish, and it wouldn’t be very surprising if he winds up with a similar number this weekend at Darlington; Buescher qualified back in 27th for Sunday night’s Southern 500, and in this race last year he came home with a 17th-place finish–which is actually pretty impressive for a rookie. That leads me to the other reason I like him over Ty Dillon: Darlington is called “The Track Too Tough To Tame” for a reason, and Dillon already got one Darlington stripe during qualifying on Friday. Additionally, his Xfinity Series record at this track leaves much to be desired, with an average finish of 11.4 over five career starts here. This is a track that driver talent really shows in terms of who rises to the top–just another example of why the younger Dillon probably isn’t in a Cup ride due to his racing expertise.
Kasey Kahne ($7,500) instead of Dale Earnhardt, Jr. ($7,600) or Daniel Suarez ($7,800) – Taking down a GPP contest on Sunday night is probably going to take a risky play, and there’s no driver more risky in the Fantasy NASCAR world than Kasey Kahne. However, there’s actually a few things to like about the driver of the #5 Chevrolet this weekend at Darlington, with the first being that he was the fastest Hendrick Motorsports driver in both practice sessions here on Friday. In fact, Kahne actually looked pretty sporty in those practices, ranking 6th-fastest in Practice #1 before ending up 9th-fastest in Happy Hour. Another thing to like about Kasey this weekend is his recent record here at Darlington: in addition to finishing 7th here one year ago, Kahne has wound up 12th or better in four of the last six races at this track. He’ll start back in 23rd when we go green on Sunday night.
Michael McDowell ($6,100) instead of Danica Patrick ($6,200) – Danica Patrick is going to be highly owned in DraftKings on Sunday night, and for good reason: she’s cheap ($6,200), she starts way back in 33rd, and should finish in the mid-20s at worst. Obviously, though, nothing is guaranteed in the Fantasy NASCAR world, so it’s always a good idea to have a backup plan. In this scenario? Michael McDowell. It’s been a while since we’ve actually been able to use McDowell in DraftKings, but this weekend he qualified back in 30th so he’s definitely a viable option to fill out your lineup. His history here at Darlington is quite limited, but McDowell did finish 27th here last year, and the #95 Chevrolet and team seem to just keep getting better as time goes on. Additionally, this track is one where drivers have to really be patient and just make it to the end, and McDowell is one of the best low-tier drivers at doing just that. This #95 team has four top 20 finishes in the last five Cup Series races overall and it wouldn’t be surprising if they grabbed another here at Darlington this weekend.
