Darlington Raceway is a track where driver skill comes into play a lot more than it does at other venues, and because of that, we often see many of the same faces up front whenever we race here–which is once per season. That’s also the reason why all four of the five highest-priced drivers in DraftKings this weekend qualified inside the top 5 for Sunday night’s race. That means it’s going to be important to have the drivers in your lineup that not only finish up front, but are also most likely to post fastest laps.
Click here to see my DraftKings FPTS Projections for this week’s race.
Give me a follow on Twitter: @FanRacingOnline
DraftKings Plays for the Bojangles’ Southern 500
Kyle Larson ($10,300) – It’s rare for a rookie to find success in his/her first start at Darlington Raceway, but Kyle Larson is the exception to many rules, and he came home with an 8th-place finish in his first Cup Series start here. He followed that up with a 10th-place result in the 2015 Southern 500, and then had a career-best outing here last season when he started 16th, led 45 laps, and finished 3rd. And this year, we just might witness another Kyle Larson career-best effort at “The Lady in Black.” The #42 Chevrolet will roll off the grid from 4th when we get going here on Sunday night, and looks to have enough speed to be a legitimate contender all night long; Larson laid down the fastest lap in Practice #1 on Friday and then ended up 16th-fastest in Happy Hour when focusing more on race runs. In terms of ten-lap average, though, Kyle was #1 on that chart in the final practice, and ranked 2nd-best in that category during the first session. As far as choosing between Larson, Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,600), and Kyle Busch ($10,500), I actually like Larson the best of the three. Truex should a top 5 contender on Sunday but I’m not seeing the speed to go out there and win the race without getting some help (aka track position). And as far as Kyle Busch goes, he has a fast car this weekend and he’s really good at this track, but having just 12 total fastest laps over the last three Darlington races is a bit concerning for me. So, to wrap it up, Larson starts further back (4th), probably has the fastest car of the three, and is the cheapest option of those over $10,000 this weekend..
Kevin Harvick ($9,700) – It’s going to be quite surprising if Kevin Harvick doesn’t lead the most laps here on Sunday night. Not only has Harvick led over 200 laps in two of the last three races here at Darlington, but he was also on the pole for those events. Additionally, the year that Harvick didn’t lead the most laps at Darlington (2015), Brad Keselowski was in front for a race-high 196 circuits, and he started–you guessed it–from the pole. Harvick won all three rounds of qualifying here on Saturday and then ran the Xfinity race, and probably should have won that, too. As far as practice speeds go, the #4 Ford wasn’t blazing fast in either session on Friday, but that’s not overly concerning because Harvick rarely shows his hand before the race. All you need to know is he starts on the pole, he has the best pit stall on pit road, and he loves this track. Being priced down at $9,700 is just the cherry on top.
Daniel Suarez ($7,800) – Is it usually a bad idea to pick rookies at Darlington? Yes. Am I still rolling the dice with Daniel Suarez this weekend? Absolutely. In addition to starting back in 19th (place differential points!), Joe Gibbs Racing always brings super fast race cars to the Southern 500, and this weekend is no exception. In fact, the other three Gibbs drivers–Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, and Matt Kenseth–are all definite threats to win here on Sunday night. And while it’s going to take some luck for Suarez to even crack the top 5 here this weekend, a top 10 is within reach for this #19 team. Daniel was 10th-fastest in the Happy Hour practice session and had the 8th-best ten-lap average during Practice #1 on Friday, which is a good sign because he tends to get better as a race goes on. Suarez has never raced here at Darlington in the Cup Series but he does have two Xfinity Series starts under his belt, with 3rd-place finishes in each to his credit.
Danica Patrick ($6,200) – The Stewart-Haas Racing Fords are fast this weekend, and even though Danica Patrick qualified back in 33rd for Sunday night’s Bojangles’ Southern 500, she has mid-20s speed in her race car. And you never know with how these races play out, she just might be able to crack the top 20. Danica finished 25th at Bristol a couple of weeks ago, and believe it or not, that was her worst finish since Michigan back in mid-June. She’s going to be the go-to pick in this price range because of the upside she brings to the table, as well as the fact that she has finished between 22nd and 24th in two of the last three races at this track. When it came to practice speeds, Danica was just 31st-fastest in Practice #1 on Friday but ended up 22nd-best on the Happy Hour speed chart when the team was focused on race trim.
DraftKings Fades for the Bojangles’ Southern 500
Erik Jones ($8,800) – Darlington isn’t very nice to rookies, so if I’m going to have one in my DraftKings lineup on Sunday night, he/she is going to be there for potential place differential points–as is the case with Daniel Suarez. As far as Erik Jones goes, though, he qualified 10th for Sunday night’s race, and that’s just a bit too high to take a risk with–especially at his inflated price of $8,800. Yes, Jones has nearly won the last two Monster Energy Cup Series races, but Darlington is a completely different animal, and the #77 Toyota barely had top 10 speed during the practice sessions on Friday, let alone top 5 speed. Jones is a pretty good play in other Fantasy NASCAR leagues this weekend, but as far as DraftKings goes, he’s going to need to run a perfect race (and then some) to make him worth the roster spot, and that’s just not going to happen.
Joey Logano ($8,600) – Joey Logano needs a win to get into the playoffs, and although he does have back-to-back top 5 finishes here at Darlington, he’s probably not going to end up in victory lane here on Sunday night. The #22 Ford was actually one of the surprises during qualifying on Friday, as Joey will start 8th for this year’s Southern 500. The reason that that was surprising, though, was because he really out-performed his practice rankings; Logano was just 23rd-fastest in Practice #1 on Friday and then followed that up with the 24th-fastest lap in Happy Hour. His teammate, Brad Keselowski, has a whole lot of speed this weekend, but I’m not seeing where Joey Logano has anything really close to that amount of power. In other words, it’d be quite surprising if the #22 Ford is able to finish in 8th on Sunday night, and even more surprising if Logano is able to move up a few spots before it’s all said and done.
Jamie McMurray ($8,500) – Jamie Mac qualified 5th for this weekend’s Bojangles’ Southern 500, and while that’s great for him and the #1 team, that means yet again there’s no reason for him to make it onto your DraftKings lineups. The story has been the same all season long for McMurray, and that’s that he qualifies better than he races. That’s why he has an average starting place of 8.1 this season and an average finish of 13.5. Here at Darlington, McMurray has been a pretty consistent finisher over the last few years, with results between 14th and 16th in each of the last four races at this track. However, a 15th-place finish from McMurray this weekend means you’re down to just 19 base FPTS in DraftKings, and that’s too low of a score for a $6,000 driver, let alone a $8,500 driver. McMurray also rarely posts any fastest laps or laps led, either, so there’s the final nail in the coffin.
