These are my final thoughts and strategies to consider for Saturday night’s Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond Raceway, as well as projected DraftKings FPTS for each driver. The chart below is explained but if you have any questions please don’t hesitate to contact me.
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- Saturday night’s race is scheduled to be 400 laps in length, which means there will be 100 FPTS awarded for laps led and probably around 175 FPTS awarded for fastest laps (depending on cautions).
- Typically, we get at least two or three dominators here at Richmond, but we have seen races where a front row sitter goes out and just kills the competition. For example, Matt Kenseth dominated this race after starting 2nd two years ago (led 352 laps) and Brad Keselowski led 383 laps in this race three years ago.
- Someone starting inside the top 5 has won each of the last five races at Richmond Raceway.
- Unlike last week at Darlington, fastest laps here at Richmond have a nice correlation with laps led. We raced here back in April and Brad Keselowski had 100 fastest laps to go with his 110 laps led, and in this race one year ago, Martin Truex, Jr. posted 88 fastest laps with 193 laps led while Denny Hamlin had 64 fastest laps and 189 laps led.
- The pole sitter has had a combined 100 fastest laps + laps led in five of the last six races here, which bodes well for Matt Kenseth on Saturday night.
- Usually the drivers that quality up front at Richmond end up finishing up front as well. However, that’s not to say that it’s impossible to make your way through the field at this track.
- Looking for an alternate strategy on Saturday night? Click here to see my Pivot Drivers for this week’s race.
- Click here to read my DraftKings Plays and Fades for Richmond 2.
Projected FPTS at Richmond 2
The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from five different ranking systems, using both mathematical equations as well as personal rankings. This chart also includes the average projected base + laps led DraftKings FPTS as well as the dollar per FPT. I don’t try to project fastest laps–that’s up to you. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.
| Driver | DraftKings Salary | Starting Position | Avg. Projected Finish | Proj Laps Led | Avg Proj Base + Laps Led FPTS | Dollar Per FPT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Truex Jr | $10,400 | 5 | 03.0 | 121 | 74.5 | $140 |
| Denny Hamlin | $10,000 | 2 | 03.2 | 69 | 57.5 | $174 |
| Matt Kenseth | $9,000 | 1 | 06.8 | 94 | 56.1 | $160 |
| Kyle Busch | $10,700 | 7 | 03.6 | 39 | 53.6 | $200 |
| Kyle Larson | $10,200 | 4 | 06.8 | 55 | 48.8 | $209 |
| Brad Keselowski | $9,800 | 15 | 08.4 | 4 | 43.2 | $227 |
| Kevin Harvick | $10,500 | 6 | 05.0 | 10 | 43.1 | $244 |
| Ryan Newman | $7,200 | 27 | 14.4 | 0 | 42.2 | $171 |
| Jimmie Johnson | $9,600 | 20 | 12.0 | 0 | 40.0 | $240 |
| Erik Jones | $8,300 | 10 | 09.0 | 0 | 36.0 | $231 |
| Austin Dillon | $7,400 | 31 | 19.6 | 0 | 35.8 | $207 |
| Jamie McMurray | $8,500 | 11 | 10.2 | 0 | 34.6 | $246 |
| Kurt Busch | $8,000 | 3 | 07.0 | 6 | 34.5 | $232 |
| Joey Logano | $9,200 | 12 | 11.8 | 2 | 32.9 | $280 |
| Daniel Suarez | $7,600 | 16 | 14.2 | 0 | 31.6 | $241 |
| Clint Bowyer | $8,800 | 13 | 13.2 | 0 | 30.6 | $288 |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr | $7,800 | 21 | 17.2 | 0 | 30.6 | $255 |
| Aric Almirola | $5,700 | 23 | 19.2 | 0 | 28.6 | $199 |
| Ryan Blaney | $8,600 | 14 | 15.8 | 0 | 26.4 | $326 |
| Ty Dillon | $6,500 | 32 | 24.8 | 0 | 26.4 | $246 |
| Chase Elliott | $9,400 | 9 | 14.0 | 0 | 25.0 | $376 |
| Danica Patrick | $6,700 | 19 | 19.4 | 0 | 24.2 | $277 |
| Chris Buescher | $6,200 | 24 | 22.0 | 0 | 24.0 | $258 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | $7,000 | 8 | 14.4 | 0 | 23.2 | $302 |
| Kasey Kahne | $7,700 | 17 | 19.0 | 0 | 23.0 | $335 |
| Michael McDowell | $5,900 | 28 | 24.8 | 0 | 22.4 | $263 |
| Landon Cassill | $5,200 | 30 | 26.4 | 0 | 21.2 | $245 |
| David Ragan | $5,500 | 29 | 26.0 | 0 | 21.0 | $262 |
| Trevor Bayne | $6,900 | 18 | 21.0 | 0 | 20.0 | $345 |
| Paul Menard | $6,100 | 26 | 25.2 | 0 | 19.6 | $311 |
| Cole Whitt | $5,100 | 35 | 30.6 | 0 | 17.8 | $287 |
| BJ McLeod | $4,900 | 39 | 33.0 | 0 | 17.0 | $288 |
| AJ Allmendinger | $6,300 | 22 | 25.4 | 0 | 15.2 | $414 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | $5,300 | 25 | 27.2 | 0 | 14.6 | $363 |
| Jeffrey Earnhardt | $4,700 | 37 | 33.6 | 0 | 13.8 | $341 |
| Corey Lajoie | $5,000 | 33 | 31.8 | 0 | 13.4 | $373 |
| Gray Gaulding | $4,600 | 34 | 33.0 | 0 | 12.0 | $383 |
| Derrike Cope | $4,500 | 38 | 35.2 | 0 | 11.6 | $388 |
| Reed Sorenson | $4,500 | 36 | 35.6 | 0 | 08.8 | $511 |
