Richmond Raceway is a flat, 0.75-mile track that is technically a short track but looks (and kind of races) like an intermediate venue. Saturday night’s Federated Auto Parts 400 is scheduled to run for 400 laps, but that’s a relatively short distance considering it is only 300 miles. This is the last regular season race of the 2017 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series and while there very well could be some surprising things happen, this race has been pretty tame over the years, so don’t expect a lot of craziness. This is also the last scheduled night race of the season so enjoy!
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DraftKings Plays for the Federated Auto Parts 400
Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,400) – This is the lowest Martin Truex, Jr. has been priced in DraftKings since the New Hampshire race, which is coincidentally pretty similar to Richmond Raceway. And if you remember back to that New Hampshire event, Truex had a pretty good race: started 1st, finished 3rd, led 137 laps and had 76 fastest laps for a grand total of 111 FPTS in DraftKings. Now, of course, that was an entirely different track, but you can expect a similar race out of Truex here at Richmond on Saturday night. The #78 Toyota qualified 5th for this weekend’s race, which is good because it gives Truex owners a chance at a few place differential points. This #78 car was super fast off the truck this weekend and any time that happens, the garage area knows that Truex is going to be a contender. Looking back at this race last year, Martin finished a career-best 3rd, led 193 of the 400 laps, and posted 88 fastest laps. Oh, and not that it means anything, but Truex is running the Auto Owners Insurance paint scheme this weekend, and it seems like every time he does, he dominates the race.
Brad Keselowski ($9,800) – It was hard to tell whether Keselowski just missed it in qualifying or whether 15th was just the best he could do, but that doesn’t really matter because DraftKings owners are looking at a potential gold mine here on Saturday night. Keselowski is an elite racer here at Richmond and has led 764 total laps in just 16 career starts here. That total is good enough for 6th-best among active drivers, and really only Denny Hamlin’s lap led numbers are more impressive here (1,653 in 22 starts). When we were last at Richmond in April, Keselowski started back in 15th, too, and ended up finishing 2nd after posting 100 fastest laps and 110 laps led. As far as this weekend goes, the #2 Ford was stout in both practice sessions on Friday, ranking 7th or better in each session in both fastest lap and ten-lap average. My only concern with Keselowski this weekend is his car’s tendency to fade in the last half of the race–this has happened consistently for the last month–but, then again, this is Richmond and it’s hard to bet against BK at this track.
Looking for a different option instead of Brad Keselowski this weekend? Check out my DraftKings Pivots post for Richmond.
Ryan Newman ($7,200) – This is about as chalk of a pick as you can get, but not only is Ryan Newman super cheap this weekend, he also qualified back in 27th, so he should rack up plenty of place differential FPTS by the end of this year’s Federated Auto Parts 400. Richmond is actually Newman’s 2nd-best track on the NASCAR circuit, as he owns a career average finish of 12.1 here with 17 top 10 finishes in 31 total starts. This weekend, the Richard Childress Racing Chevrolets do not have short run speed, but look decent on the long runs–especially Newman, who ranked 4th in ten-lap average during the opening practice session of the weekend. Momentum-wise, this #31 team now has three straight top 10s after their 7th-place run at Darlington last weekend, and have wound up 14th or better in five of the last six.
Ty Dillon ($6,500) – Yep, another chalk pick this weekend, but Ty Dillon has been a stud in positive place differential this year and that isn’t going to suddenly change this weekend. He starts back in 32nd here on Saturday night and has a legitimate shot at a top 20 finish–you can’t ask for much more from a $6,500 driver in a non-restrictor plate race. As far as Richmond goes, Ty wound up finishing 26th here back in April, but don’t forget that he had a 16th-place average running position in that race. In other words, he didn’t quite get the finish he deserved. At Loudon last month–a track similar to Richmond–Dillon finished 16th after starting in the mid-20s, and that kind of result wouldn’t surprise me this weekend. Ty has finished 21st or better in six of the last seven Cup Series races overall, and he ran the Xfinity race here on Friday, which should help him a little bit on Saturday night.
DraftKings Fades for the Federated Auto Parts 400
Kyle Larson ($10,200) – Looking purely at the practice speed charts, Kyle Larson looks like a definite threat to win this weekend. That #42 Chevrolet ranked 4th-fastest in the opening session of the weekend and then went out in Happy Hour and put down the very best lap. However, you have to look at more than just one fast lap here at Richmond, as the races here tend to go through long green flag runs. And if you look at the ten-lap average charts for both of those practices, there’s one driver missing…Kyle Larson. Now, the #42 team did go out and qualify 4th for Saturday night’s race–and that’s good–but you have to wonder what kind of car that they have to work with on long runs, because that’s where Larson is going to rack up dominator points this weekend. As far as his record here at Richmond goes, though, Kyle has just one finish better than 11th in seven career starts, but the good news is that that came in this race one year ago, when Larson finished 2nd. The bad news is that he has led just 20 total laps in his seven career starts, and his fastest lap totals have been the following over the last four events here: 12, 10, 0, 2. I wouldn’t fade Larson completely here on Saturday night, but at the same time, he shouldn’t be one of your higher-owned drivers in the Federated Auto Parts 400.
Chase Elliott ($9,400) – Chase Elliott is a relatively safe option in Fantasy NASCAR on Saturday night, but he’s not worth the price tag in DraftKings. The #24 Chevrolet will roll off the grid from 9th when we the Federated Auto Parts 400 goes green, and that’s honestly right around the ceiling of where Chase Elliott will finish, too. He’s made four career starts here at Richmond Raceway and has yet to finish better than 12th, but with the way this #24 team is running right now, a top 10 finish is possible for Chase this weekend depending on how the race plays out. Speed-wise, Elliott was middle-of-the-road in the opening practice session of the weekend but ranked 9th-fastest in Happy Hour with the 4th-best ten-lap average. Still, Chase hasn’t looked overly impressive at the short, flat tracks this year, and definitely not here at Richmond, either.
A.J. Allmendinger ($6,300) – There’s no reason to even consider A.J. Allmendinger this weekend. He qualified in 22nd for Saturday night’s Federated Auto Parts 400, which means it’s much more likely than not that he’s going to have negative place differential FPTS before it’s all said and done. The Dinger ended up 37th here at Richmond back in April after a mechanical issue and that makes it four straight races at this track that A.J. has finished 20th or worse. As far as similar tracks go, Allmendinger ended up 26th at Phoenix and 21st at Loudon earlier this year, and momentum-wise he has just one result better than 20th in the last five Cup Series races, and that was at Watkins Glen–his best track on the circuit.
