Richmond Raceway is a short track where we tend to see at least two dominators during a race but not a whole lot of movement. Typically, the drivers that start up front at Richmond end up finishing there as well, but that’s not to say that it’s impossible to make your way through the field here. One thing to keep in mind when setting your DraftKings lineups on Saturday night is that this isn’t a track that sees a lot of change: in other words, if a driver isn’t very good at Richmond, he/she typically doesn’t suddenly turn something on and have a great race here.
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DraftKings Pivots for the 2017 Federated Auto Parts 400
Daniel Suarez ($7,600) instead of Austin Dillon ($7,400) – Austin Dillon is a definite chalk pick this weekend considering he qualified back in 31st. However, just because a driver with better-than-average equipment qualifies in the 30s doesn’t automatically mean he’s going to move up significantly. If you watched qualifying, you know that NBCSN interviewed Austin after his qualifying run, and his attitude toward this track is anything but positive–he hates it. And why not? His overall average finish here over the course of seven Cup Series starts is 22nd, and he has just one finish better than 20th on his resume here–13th in this race one year ago, after he qualified 8th. Daniel Suarez, on the other hand, has had a knack for these short, flat tracks this season, and qualified back in 16th, so he has some room for place differential as well. Austin Dillon should be significantly higher owned in DraftKings on Saturday night, and while he does have more upside in place differential FPTS than Daniel Suarez, the #19 Toyota should end up finishing much higher than the #3 Chevrolet.
Denny Hamlin ($10,000) instead of Kevin Harvick ($10,500) and Brad Keselowski ($9,800) – Kevin Harvick is going to have a strong race on Saturday night, but starting 6th and finishing 5th really isn’t that great of a night in DraftKings for a driver that is priced at $10,500. The fact of the matter is that the Fords aren’t on the same level as the Toyotas right now, and nothing shows that better than the 53 total laps that Kevin Harvick has led over the last ten Cup Series races combined. Meanwhile, he has seven single-digit finish results over that span, including the win at Sonoma and the 2nd-place finish at Pocono. In other words, Harvick isn’t dominating any races, and if you’re going to put a $10,500 driver in your DraftKings lineup, you need more than just finish points. Denny Hamlin, on the other hand, is coming off of that very impressive but illegal win at Darlington and will be looking to show the NASCAR world that he can win without cheating. And Richmond is a great place to do that, as Denny is a three-time winner at this track and has the 2nd-best average finish in the Cup Series garage here (9.8). He’s also the defending winner of this race and, judging by Friday’s practice speeds, seems to have a better long run car than his teammate (and pole sitter) Matt Kenseth. If Hamlin can get the lead early on Saturday night, he’s going to wrack up a good chunk of dominator points in DraftKings. Some people may have concerns that Hamlin could let up a bit to let Kenseth hold that lead–considering a playoff berth is on the line–but, really, how often do we see that happen? EDIT: You could also pivot to Denny Hamlin over Brad Keselowski on Saturday night. Kez’s ownership is going to be high considering he starts back in 15th and is under the $10,000 price point, but, as mentioned before, the Fords aren’t as strong as the Toyotas right now, and I have my own concerns about Keselowski that you can read about in my DraftKings Plays and Fades post for Richmond.
David Ragan ($5,500) instead of Michael McDowell ($5,900) – Michael McDowell is priced very cheap this weekend and qualified back in 28th, so he’s going to be an almost automatic choice in DraftKings for many teams. And I don’t blame anybody for that. McDowell, for his level of equipment and everything, has been a stud in Fantasy NASCAR this year, and he could easily walk away with another top 20 finish here on Sunday. But let’s not forget that nothing is guaranteed in the NASCAR world, and, quite frankly, Richmond hasn’t been very kind to McDowell over the years. The #95 Chevrolet did come home 12th in this race one year ago, but that is one of just two finishes better than 29th for McDowell at this track in thirteen career attempts (the other was a 20th-place effort back in 2008). David Ragan, on the other hand, finished 19th here earlier this year in his #38 Ford and has finished between 17th and 23rd in four of his last five starts at this track. The cherry on top? Ragan actually looked decent in practice here on Friday, ending up 21st- and 14th-fastest in the two sessions while posting the 20th-best ten-lap average in Happy Hour. David Ragan is definitely the riskier pick here over Michael McDowell but sometimes you have to go out on a limb in Fantasy NASCAR. Also, looking at the short, flat track races this year, McDowell finished 24th at Phoenix, 29th at Richmond, and 26th at Loudon–not great.
