These are my final thoughts and strategies to consider for Saturday’s Tale of the Turtles 400, as well as projected DraftKings FPTS for each driver. The chart below is explained but if you have any questions please don’t hesitate to contact me.
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- Sunday afternoon’s race is scheduled to be 267 laps in length, which means there will be 66.75 FPTS awarded for laps led and probably around 115 FPTS awarded for fastest laps (depending on cautions).
- The pole sitter has really struggled here at Chicagoland over the last four years. Over those four races, the pole winner has led a combined 109 laps and has averaged a finish of 23.5. With that being said, Kyle Busch–who is the pole sitter this weekend–looks really fast, and there’s a good chance that he will buck that trend.
- Las Vegas, Kansas, and Kentucky are all 1.5-mile tracks that are most similar to Chicagoland when it comes to banking. Martin Truex, Jr. won at all three of those tracks earlier this year.
- Last year at Chicagoland, Martin Truex, Jr. went to victory lane after starting 6th, and that’s the best starting spot of a race winner here since 2008, when Kyle Busch won from the pole. Additionally, four of the last five Chicagoland winners have started outside of the top 10 entirely.
- Last year’s Chicagoland race was the first time since 2012 that a driver had more than 44 fastest laps in the race (out of 267 scheduled laps). Truex posted 67 fastest laps in last year’s race.
- Click here to read my DraftKings Plays and Fades for Chicagoland.
- Click here to read my DraftKings Pivot Options for Chicagoland.
Projected FPTS at Chicagoland
The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from five different ranking systems, using both mathematical equations as well as personal rankings. This chart also includes the average projected base + laps led DraftKings FPTS as well as the dollar per FPT. I don’t try to project fastest laps–that’s up to you. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.
| Driver | DraftKings Salary | Starting Position | Avg. Projected Finish | Proj Laps Led | Avg Proj Base + Laps Led FPTS | Dollar Per FPT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Truex Jr | $10,700 | 3 | 02.8 | 79 | 63.0 | $170 |
| Kyle Busch | $10,600 | 1 | 02.2 | 72 | 59.8 | $177 |
| Brad Keselowski | $9,400 | 5 | 05.6 | 34 | 46.3 | $203 |
| Erik Jones | $8,400 | 24 | 11.0 | 0 | 46.0 | $183 |
| Kevin Harvick | $10,100 | 4 | 06.0 | 34 | 44.5 | $227 |
| Chase Elliott | $9,900 | 8 | 06.2 | 18 | 44.1 | $224 |
| Kyle Larson | $10,400 | 6 | 04.4 | 10 | 43.7 | $238 |
| Matt Kenseth | $9,300 | 10 | 07.6 | 2 | 39.3 | $237 |
| Jimmie Johnson | $9,100 | 14 | 10.0 | 2 | 38.5 | $236 |
| Denny Hamlin | $9,700 | 2 | 05.4 | 12 | 38.2 | $254 |
| Kurt Busch | $8,100 | 17 | 11.4 | 0 | 38.2 | $212 |
| Ryan Newman | $7,500 | 16 | 11.2 | 0 | 37.6 | $199 |
| Ryan Blaney | $8,700 | 12 | 09.6 | 3 | 37.6 | $232 |
| Jamie McMurray | $8,500 | 19 | 13.4 | 0 | 36.2 | $235 |
| Kasey Kahne | $7,700 | 25 | 18.4 | 0 | 32.2 | $239 |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr | $7,900 | 20 | 16.2 | 0 | 31.6 | $250 |
| Joey Logano | $9,000 | 7 | 11.0 | 1 | 29.3 | $308 |
| Paul Menard | $6,800 | 28 | 21.4 | 0 | 29.2 | $233 |
| Michael McDowell | $5,800 | 30 | 22.8 | 0 | 28.4 | $204 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | $7,400 | 15 | 15.8 | 0 | 27.4 | $270 |
| Clint Bowyer | $8,200 | 11 | 14.2 | 0 | 26.6 | $308 |
| Ty Dillon | $6,900 | 23 | 20.2 | 0 | 26.6 | $259 |
| Trevor Bayne | $7,100 | 26 | 21.8 | 0 | 26.4 | $269 |
| Daniel Suarez | $7,800 | 13 | 15.4 | 0 | 26.2 | $298 |
| Danica Patrick | $6,600 | 22 | 20.2 | 0 | 25.6 | $258 |
| Aric Almirola | $6,000 | 21 | 19.8 | 0 | 25.4 | $236 |
| AJ Allmendinger | $6,500 | 29 | 24.2 | 0 | 24.6 | $264 |
| Austin Dillon | $7,300 | 9 | 16.2 | 0 | 20.6 | $354 |
| David Ragan | $5,200 | 31 | 27.2 | 0 | 20.6 | $252 |
| Landon Cassill | $5,600 | 27 | 25.8 | 0 | 19.4 | $289 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | $5,700 | 32 | 28.6 | 0 | 18.8 | $303 |
| Cole Whitt | $5,400 | 35 | 30.4 | 0 | 18.2 | $297 |
| Chris Buescher | $6,300 | 18 | 23.2 | 0 | 15.6 | $404 |
| Corey Lajoie | $5,000 | 33 | 31.2 | 0 | 14.6 | $342 |
| Jeffrey Earnhardt | $4,800 | 37 | 34.2 | 0 | 12.6 | $381 |
| Reed Sorenson | $5,100 | 34 | 32.8 | 0 | 12.4 | $411 |
| Brett Moffitt | $4,600 | 40 | 35.8 | 0 | 12.4 | $371 |
| Gray Gaulding | $4,700 | 36 | 34.6 | 0 | 10.8 | $435 |
| Ray Black Jr | $4,500 | 39 | 36.6 | 0 | 09.8 | $459 |
| Timmy Hill | $4,700 | 38 | 36.2 | 0 | 09.6 | $490 |
