There are quite a few chalk plays in DraftKings this weekend, but if you’ve ever watch a race at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, you know that rarely do things go as planned at this race track. Believe it or not, Loudon is a track that changes quite a bit as the day goes on. The sticky PJ1 substance will be applied to the track on Saturday night, but with 39 cars making laps on Saturday afternoon, that PJ1 is going to go away quickly on Sunday. Additionally, it’s not uncommon for strategy to play a part in the races here at NHMS, and some teams will probably even gamble by taking two tires during a pit stop as well (although that won’t work out very well).
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DraftKings Pivots for the 2017 ISM Connect 300
Daniel Suarez ($7,500) instead of Joey Logano ($8,700) – For the record, Joey Logano is one of the best options in DraftKings this weekend. He’s starting in the rear after failing inspection before qualifying and could easily end up inside the top 15 before it’s all said and done. I have Joey projected at earning over 60 FPTS in DraftKings this weekend, but like anything else in the Fantasy NASCAR world, nothing is guaranteed. And because Logano’s ownership percentage is going to be sky high this weekend, it’s worth having lineups made without the #22 Ford on them. Not to mention, once you put a combination of Kyle Busch/Truex/Larson in your lineup and then add Logano, there’s not a lot of salary cap left. Enter Daniel Suarez. In addition to costing $1,200 less than Logano, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Suarez outscore Joey on Sunday, either. The #19 Toyota has looked like a top 10 car in all practice sessions this weekend, and don’t forget that Suarez came home 6th here back in July. Daniel will start back in 25th when Sunday’s ISM Connect 300 goes green, so there’s plenty of place differential FPTS available there as well.
Ty Dillon ($6,700) instead of Trevor Bayne ($6,900) – Ty Dillon and the #13 team were one of the best options for solid top 20 finishes in the first half of the season, but over the last month or two, they’ve really regressed–Ty has just result of 20th or better in the last five Cup Series races. Still, that doesn’t make the younger Dillon brother a bad option in DraftKings on Sunday; Ty will start from the rear when the ISM Connect 300 goes green–he had to go to a backup car but will be scored from 30th–and as long as he’s able to stay on the lead lap–or just one lap down–there’s no reason to think that he won’t be able to finish somewhere around 20th. Him starting from the back should also keep his ownership percentage down a bit. When we last raced here at Loudon, the #13 Chevrolet started 25th and finished 16th. As far as Trevor Bayne goes, the Roush-Fenway Fords have really fallen off since the mid-point of the season, and he has never really been good here at Loudon anyway; in five career starts here, Bayne has just one finish better than 20th and has an average result of 25.8. The #6 Ford also never made a long run during Happy Hour on Saturday, which is a pretty big red flag at a track like New Hampshire Motor Speedway.
Matt Kenseth ($9,400) instead of Jimmie Johnson ($9,600) – Matt Kenseth’s track record at New Hampshire Motor Speedway speaks for itself, and that’s a major reason why I’m not overly concerned about the #20 Toyota looking slower-than-normal during the practices on Saturday. Since joining Joe Gibbs Racing in 2013, Matt Kenseth has just one finish worse than 9th in nine total starts here at Loudon, and he’s led a total of 325 laps over that span as well. Additionally, looking at the most recent races here, Kenseth is averaging 43 fastest laps per race over the last four events here, which is the best in the series. Jimmie Johnson, on the other hand, is more of a solid finisher than anything at this track–which explains why he’s led just 7 total laps in the last 12 Loudon races. Additionally, the #48 Chevrolet hasn’t led a single lap since Daytona back in July, and that’s probably not going to change this weekend. Johnson starts a little further back than Kenseth on Sunday (12th compared to 10th) but the latter has a much better chance of getting dominator points, which is necessary when dealing with drivers in this price range.
