These are my final thoughts and strategies to consider for Sunday’s ISM Connect 300, as well as projected DraftKings FPTS for each driver. The chart below is explained but if you have any questions please don’t hesitate to contact me.
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- Sunday afternoon’s race is a quick one, but there’s still 300 laps scheduled to be ran, which means there will be 75 FPTS awarded for laps led and probably around 130 FPTS awarded for fastest laps (depending on cautions).
- Chances are the dominator points are going to come down to Martin Truex, Jr., Kyle Busch, and Kyle Larson this weekend–big surprise, right? The last time we were here at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, those three combined for 153 fastest laps and 233 laps led (out of a possible 301).
- Making up spots during the race is actually pretty common here at Loudon, so don’t be too concerned with someone like Daniel Suarez, who simply had a bad run in qualifying and ran out of time. As far as Joey Logano goes, he’ll start dead last on Sunday, but don’t forget that Kyle Larson did the same thing here back in July and he almost won.
- One thing to keep in mind: the driver with the most laps led hasn’t won that particular race in the last six events at Loudon. The last time was Brad Keselowski back in 2014.
- A driver starting 1st or 2nd has led 133 or more laps in each of the last four races at this track. Kyle Busch and Kyle Larson start in those spots here on Sunday, and are definitely the favorites to dominate this race.
- It’s rare to not have two or three drivers with 80+ laps led each here at Loudon.
Projected FPTS at Loudon 2
The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from five different ranking systems, using both mathematical equations as well as personal rankings. This chart also includes the average projected base + laps led DraftKings FPTS as well as the dollar per FPT. I don’t try to project fastest laps–that’s up to you. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.
| Driver | DraftKings Salary | Starting Position | Avg. Projected Finish | Proj Laps Led | Avg Proj Base + Laps Led FPTS | Dollar Per FPT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Busch | $10,700 | 1 | 02.2 | 93 | 65.7 | $163 |
| Martin Truex Jr | $10,500 | 5 | 03.2 | 71 | 61.0 | $172 |
| Joey Logano | $8,700 | 39 | 11.2 | 0 | 60.6 | $144 |
| Kyle Larson | $9,500 | 2 | 04.6 | 80 | 57.4 | $166 |
| Kevin Harvick | $10,100 | 6 | 04.2 | 24 | 47.6 | $212 |
| Matt Kenseth | $9,400 | 10 | 05.4 | 2 | 44.3 | $212 |
| Daniel Suarez | $7,500 | 25 | 12.8 | 1 | 43.7 | $172 |
| Denny Hamlin | $9,900 | 3 | 04.0 | 11 | 41.8 | $237 |
| Brad Keselowski | $10,200 | 13 | 07.8 | 0 | 41.4 | $246 |
| Jimmie Johnson | $9,600 | 12 | 08.4 | 3 | 40.0 | $240 |
| Kurt Busch | $8,200 | 7 | 08.2 | 5 | 35.9 | $229 |
| Chase Elliott | $9,100 | 14 | 11.4 | 0 | 35.2 | $259 |
| Clint Bowyer | $8,800 | 16 | 13.6 | 0 | 32.8 | $268 |
| Ryan Newman | $7,200 | 18 | 15.0 | 0 | 32.0 | $225 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | $7,300 | 24 | 18.6 | 0 | 30.8 | $237 |
| Ty Dillon | $6,700 | 30 | 22.0 | 0 | 30.0 | $223 |
| Danica Patrick | $6,100 | 27 | 20.6 | 0 | 29.8 | $205 |
| Aric Almirola | $6,500 | 29 | 22.6 | 0 | 27.8 | $234 |
| Jamie McMurray | $8,400 | 11 | 13.8 | 0 | 27.4 | $307 |
| Austin Dillon | $7,000 | 17 | 16.8 | 0 | 27.4 | $255 |
| Erik Jones | $7,800 | 8 | 12.6 | 2 | 27.3 | $286 |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr | $7,900 | 15 | 16.2 | 0 | 26.6 | $297 |
| Ryan Blaney | $8,000 | 4 | 12.2 | 7 | 25.4 | $316 |
| Michael McDowell | $6,000 | 31 | 26.0 | 0 | 23.0 | $261 |
| Kasey Kahne | $7,400 | 9 | 16.2 | 1 | 20.9 | $355 |
| Trevor Bayne | $6,900 | 23 | 23.6 | 0 | 19.8 | $348 |
| AJ Allmendinger | $6,800 | 20 | 22.2 | 0 | 19.6 | $347 |
| Paul Menard | $6,300 | 19 | 22.0 | 0 | 19.0 | $332 |
| Landon Cassill | $5,500 | 28 | 27.4 | 0 | 17.2 | $320 |
| Cole Whitt | $5,700 | 32 | 30.2 | 0 | 15.6 | $365 |
| Chris Buescher | $6,200 | 22 | 25.4 | 0 | 15.2 | $408 |
| Brett Moffitt | $4,800 | 36 | 33.2 | 0 | 13.6 | $353 |
| David Ragan | $5,800 | 21 | 26.2 | 0 | 12.6 | $460 |
| Jeffrey Earnhardt | $4,600 | 37 | 34.2 | 0 | 12.6 | $365 |
| Corey Lajoie | $5,100 | 33 | 32.6 | 0 | 11.8 | $432 |
| Reed Sorenson | $4,900 | 35 | 33.6 | 0 | 11.8 | $415 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | $5,300 | 26 | 29.4 | 0 | 11.2 | $473 |
| Cody Ware | $4,500 | 38 | 35.6 | 0 | 10.8 | $417 |
| Gray Gaulding | $4,700 | 34 | 33.8 | 0 | 10.4 | $452 |
