Expect the racing atmosphere to change quite a bit during the ISM Connect 300 on Sunday. Loudon is one of those race tracks where we tend to see two or three dominating cars, and then who goes to victory lane depends on whether or not we get a late caution or not. If not, it’ll be one of the dominating cars. Additionally, PJ1 is being re-applied to the track on Saturday night, but that will be pretty much gone by the time the checkered flag waves on Sunday. Races at New Hampshire Motor Speedway require teams to not make any mistakes and for crew chiefs to make the perfect strategy call.
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DraftKings Plays for the ISM Connect 300
Kyle Busch ($10,700) or Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,500)? – Yep: the same question as last week…Kyle Busch or Martin Truex, Jr. Well, let’s start with the basics: Kyle Busch is starting on the pole while Truex qualified 5th, so advantage Truex there in terms of place differential potential. In terms of practice speeds, Truex was faster than Rowdy in both sessions on Saturday, ranking 3rd and 1st in the two sessions while Busch was 8th- and 3rd-fastest. And in terms of ten-lap average, Truex ranked #1 and #3 in those two sessions while Busch was 4th in each session. So another check mark for Truex. Finally, looking at the most recent Loudon races, Truex has led 401 total laps over the last three races here while Kyle Busch clocks in at 231 total laps led. As far as fastest laps go, Truex has had 162 while Busch has posted 132. So, all signs point to Truex. However, that doesn’t make Kyle Busch a bad option here on Sunday. In fact, I have him projected as the highest DraftKings scorer in the 2017 ISM Connect 300. In conclusion, if you’re forcing yourself to choose between Kyle Busch and Martin Truex, Jr., I’d recommend the latter, but really I think it’d be best to build your lineup(s) using both of them.
Kyle Larson ($9,500) – We’re lucky that Kyle Larson is priced under $10,000 this weekend, because it actually makes it possible to have a lineup with him, Kyle Busch, and Martin Truex, Jr. on it. Looking solely at the #42 Chevrolet, though, this team should have a very strong race on Sunday. Larson was the fastest in the opening practice session of the weekend and then followed that up with the fastest lap in Practice #2 on Saturday morning and the 5th-fastest lap in Happy Hour. When it came to ten-lap average, Larson ranked 6th in that final practice, and many teams in the garage were pointing to him as the car to beat on the long runs. If you remember back to the first Loudon race this year, Larson scored a whole bunch of points in DraftKings, as he started back in 39th, finishing 2nd, and had 38 fastest laps as well. This time, Kyle won’t be able to capitalize on those place differential FPTS, but he should get plenty of dominator points on Sunday.
Joey Logano ($8,700) – This is the most chalk pick in the field, but that’s just what happens sometimes. The #22 team wasn’t able to make it through qualifying inspection in time on Friday, and because of that Joey Logano will start from the back of the field on Sunday and be scored from 39th. And because of that, his ownership percentage is going to be sky high in DraftKings–but how can you go against that? A 20th-place finish would net 43 FPTS out of Logano, which is a pretty good value for a salary of $8,700. While this definitely creates a fade opportunity to go against the grain, Logano has also finished 11th or better in five of the last six Loudon races. I’m expecting a top 15 out of the #22 Ford on Sunday.
Danica Patrick ($6,100) – Finishing well at Loudon often requires keeping your fenders clean and maybe catching a break or two along the way. And while luck isn’t necessarily on Danica Patrick’s side this season–she’ll remind you of that any chance she gets–she’s definitely a driver that can go out and log laps all day long. And considering she starts back in 27th on Sunday, that means DraftKings owners should get a pretty good score out of having her on their roster. In fact, I have Danica projected as one of the best values in the field on Sunday. As far as her record here, Patrick has finished 14th and 13th in the last two summer races here at Loudon and wound up finishing 18th in this race one year. The other three Stewart-Haas Racing Fords look solid this weekend, and the #10 Ford shouldn’t be too far behind, either.
DraftKings Fades for the ISM Connect 300
Chase Elliott ($9,100) – The #24 Chevrolet wound up 14th in qualifying on Friday, and that’s probably about where Chase Elliott will end up as well when the ISM Connect 300 is all said and done. And while Chase Elliott is coming off of a great race at Chicagoland last weekend, that doesn’t really mean that he’s going to be that strong this weekend. One thing we’ve learned about Elliott in his brief Cup Series career thus far is that he doesn’t really improve at a track very much, and in his first three starts here at Loudon, he hasn’t finished better than 11th. Speed-wise, the #24 Chevrolet wasn’t great but wasn’t terrible on Saturday, winding up 17th-fastest in the first session before posting the 13th-best lap in Happy Hour. Chase ranked 10th in ten-lap average during that final session. Elliott should have a solid 10th-to-12th-place day at New Hampshire Motor Speedway on Sunday, but that doesn’t make him a great pick in DraftKings.
Ryan Blaney ($8,000) – Ryan Blaney’s ownership percentage is sure to get a bump this weekend simply because of how fast the #21 Ford has been this weekend; in addition to qualifying 4th, Blaney was also 2nd-fastest in Saturday morning’s practice session, and then he went out posted the 6th-fastest lap in Happy Hour. In terms of ten-lap average, Blaney ranked 3rd and 1st in those two sessions, respectively. And this is definitely a good sign for any driver, with Ryan Blaney you have to take his practice speeds with a grain of salt. Time and time again, the #21 Ford is better in practice than it is in the race, and that’s probably going to be the case on Sunday as well. Additionally, Blaney has qualified well this year but rarely leads; in the thirteen races that Ryan has qualified 7th or better, he’s only led in three of those, and two were at 1.5-mile tracks (the other was Pocono). As far as his record here, Blaney has made four career Cup starts here at Loudon and has yet to finish better than 11th. That’ll probably change this weekend, but that still doesn’t make him a good pick in DraftKings. According to my projections, he’s one of the worst drivers above $6,000 when it comes to value per dollar.
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($7,300) – Stenhouse is usually one of my go-to drivers on the flat tracks, but there are a couple of reasons he won’t be on many of my rosters this weekend. First, it’s never a good sign when the crew chief and team knows that they’re nowhere in the ballpark during practice. That’s exactly what happened on Saturday. Additionally, now that other teams have essentially stepped their games up for the playoffs, it makes Roush-Fenway’s advances this season look a little less significant. There’s a reason the #17 Ford has finished 18th or worse in four of the last five races when a typical finish for this team was solidly inside the top 15 for the first half of the year. Ricky has finished between 10th and 17th in four of his last five starts at this track but he doesn’t have the car capable of doing that heading into Sunday.
