These are my final thoughts and strategies to consider for Sunday’s Apache Warrior 400, as well as projected DraftKings FPTS for each driver. The chart below is explained but if you have any questions please don’t hesitate to contact me.
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- We’re at another 1-mile race track this weekend, but this week’s race at Dover will be significantly longer than last week’s at Loudon. We’re scheduled to run 400 laps here on Sunday, which means there are 100 FPTS up for grabs for laps led and around 175 available for fastest laps (depending on the number of caution laps).
- DraftKings must have gotten sick of all the lineups with Martin Truex, Jr. and Kyle Busch on them, so they priced both at $11,000 this week–the highest salaries we have seen in NASCAR this year.
- Place differential at Dover is something that is quite common. Jimmie Johnson has won his last two races here after qualifying 14th, and back in June we had six drivers with 10+ spots in positive place differential. Of course, for numbers like that to be possible, there has to be drivers that have large negative place differential, too.
- Over the last five Dover races, we’ve had at least two drivers in each race with 85+ laps led in four of them. Additionally, the driver with the most laps led in those races has started inside the top 5 in four of the five. The last time a driver with the most laps led qualified worse than 5th was Kevin Harvick in 2014, who absolutely dominated the race (leading 355 of 400 laps) despite starting back in 15th.
- Click here to read my Plays and Fades for Sunday’s race.
- Click here to read my Pivot options for Sunday’s race.
Projected FPTS at Dover 2
The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from five different ranking systems, using both mathematical equations as well as personal rankings. This chart also includes the average projected base + laps led DraftKings FPTS as well as the dollar per FPT. I don’t try to project fastest laps–that’s up to you. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.
| Driver | DraftKings Salary | Starting Position | Avg. Projected Finish | Proj Laps Led | Avg Proj Base + Laps Led FPTS | Dollar Per FPT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Busch | $11,000 | 2 | 03.8 | 145 | 75.3 | $146 |
| Kyle Larson | $10,200 | 3 | 02.2 | 99 | 69.2 | $148 |
| Martin Truex Jr | $11,000 | 1 | 02.6 | 78 | 60.5 | $182 |
| Jimmie Johnson | $9,400 | 17 | 06.4 | 25 | 55.1 | $171 |
| Chase Elliott | $9,200 | 12 | 04.6 | 12 | 50.4 | $183 |
| Kevin Harvick | $10,300 | 9 | 04.8 | 22 | 48.9 | $211 |
| Brad Keselowski | $9,700 | 16 | 08.4 | 4 | 44.2 | $219 |
| Jamie McMurray | $8,100 | 26 | 13.8 | 0 | 42.4 | $191 |
| Denny Hamlin | $9,600 | 6 | 06.6 | 2 | 37.3 | $257 |
| Matt Kenseth | $9,500 | 4 | 06.2 | 6 | 37.1 | $256 |
| Joey Logano | $9,000 | 18 | 12.6 | 0 | 36.8 | $245 |
| Erik Jones | $8,600 | 10 | 09.8 | 6 | 35.9 | $240 |
| Clint Bowyer | $8,800 | 19 | 15.0 | 0 | 33.0 | $267 |
| Kasey Kahne | $7,700 | 21 | 16.0 | 0 | 33.0 | $233 |
| Kurt Busch | $8,400 | 13 | 13.4 | 0 | 30.2 | $278 |
| Austin Dillon | $7,400 | 23 | 18.4 | 0 | 30.2 | $245 |
| Ryan Blaney | $8,300 | 11 | 13.2 | 0 | 28.6 | $290 |
| Daniel Suarez | $6,900 | 5 | 10.8 | 1 | 27.7 | $250 |
| Ryan Newman | $7,200 | 8 | 12.6 | 0 | 26.8 | $269 |
| Danica Patrick | $6,100 | 24 | 20.8 | 0 | 26.4 | $231 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | $7,600 | 15 | 16.8 | 0 | 25.4 | $299 |
| Paul Menard | $6,500 | 25 | 22.2 | 0 | 24.6 | $264 |
| David Ragan | $5,200 | 28 | 23.8 | 0 | 24.4 | $213 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | $5,000 | 40 | 30.4 | 0 | 23.2 | $216 |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr | $7,900 | 7 | 15.0 | 0 | 21.0 | $376 |
| Aric Almirola | $5,800 | 14 | 18.8 | 0 | 20.4 | $284 |
| Ty Dillon | $6,700 | 29 | 26.8 | 0 | 19.4 | $345 |
| AJ Allmendinger | $6,000 | 27 | 25.8 | 0 | 19.4 | $309 |
| Landon Cassill | $5,600 | 31 | 27.8 | 0 | 19.4 | $289 |
| Michael McDowell | $5,700 | 30 | 28.2 | 0 | 17.6 | $324 |
| Reed Sorenson | $4,900 | 39 | 32.8 | 0 | 17.4 | $282 |
| Chris Buescher | $6,800 | 22 | 24.4 | 0 | 17.2 | $395 |
| Trevor Bayne | $6,300 | 20 | 23.4 | 0 | 17.2 | $366 |
| Corey Lajoie | $5,400 | 37 | 32.6 | 0 | 15.8 | $342 |
| Cole Whitt | $5,300 | 33 | 32.4 | 0 | 12.2 | $434 |
| Jeffrey Earnhardt | $4,800 | 38 | 35.2 | 0 | 11.6 | $414 |
| Ross Chastain | $4,700 | 32 | 33.8 | 0 | 08.4 | $560 |
| Timmy Hill | $4,600 | 35 | 36.4 | 0 | 06.2 | $742 |
| Gray Gaulding | $4,700 | 34 | 33.8 | 0 | 10.4 | $452 |
