The races at Dover International Speedway go through quite a bit of change as the race goes on. This is the oldest track on the circuit, and the more rubber that ends up getting laid down, the more teams will have to keep up with track changes. Dover is also an incredibly fast track for only being 1-mile in length, as this weekend’s top qualifying speed was just over 160 mph. Typically at “The Monster Mile” we see at least two dominators, and then plenty of movers. So, when building your DraftKings lineups on Sunday, be sure to pay attention to those guys that qualified outside of the top 10 but should end up near the front in the end.
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DraftKings Plays for the Apache Warrior 400
Kyle Busch ($11,000) or Martin Truex, Jr. ($11,000)? – And in this week’s edition of Kyle Busch or Martin Truex, Jr…. Yep, here we are again. This week, DraftKings made both Rowdy and Truex $11,000, which is the highest-priced I’ve ever seen a driver. And for good reason: in most contests last week, these two were both usually over 65% owned. However, that’s what happens when there’s 300 laps and both are going to get a good portion of the dominator points. But what about this weekend? There’s over 400 laps scheduled at Dover on Sunday, and Truex and Kyle Busch are starting 1-2. On paper, the #18 Toyota looks like better car, as Rowdy had the best ten-lap average in both practice sessions on Saturday, while Truex failed to crack the top 10 in either session. However, don’t forget that not only does the #78 team have the first pit stall on Sunday, but Truex has also been in the top 3 in fastest laps in each of the last three races here at Dover. If you have to choose between the two–which is most likely, considering it’s pretty difficult to make a lineup with both this weekend–I’d lean toward Kyle Busch, but I fully expect both to put up a pretty big score on Sunday. In my opinion, the x-factor will be Kyle Larson ($10,200), and whether or not he can capture a bunch of fastest laps and/or laps led on Sunday. That $800 cap difference could be very valuable.
Jimmie Johnson ($9,400) – There are a lot of tracks that you it’s not smart to go against Jimmie Johnson…and then there’s Dover. At “The Monster Mile,” one of the dumbest things you can do is bet against the seven-time champion. In addition to leading a series-high 3,100 career laps here (700 more than Jeff Gordon did), Jimmie Johnson has also been to victory lane eleven times at this track, including in this year’s first Dover race back in June. Additionally, JJ has posted 16 top 5 finishes in 31 career starts here (51.6) and he has just four results worse than 9th in his last nineteen starts here. This weekend, the #48 Chevrolet will roll off the grid from 17th when the Apache Warrior 400 goes green, but don’t be surprised if it’s near the front at the end yet again. Jimmie was 2nd-fastest in the Happy Hour practice session and had the 6th-best ten-lap average as well. We’ve been talking about the #48 team “flipping the switch” here in the playoffs…well, it just might be this week.
Jamie McMurray ($8,100) – One of the bigger surprises during qualifying here at Dover on Friday was Jamie McMurray, and it wasn’t a good surprise. The #1 team had their worst qualifying outing of the season on Friday, and Jamie Mac will start from back in 26th when the Apache Warrior 400 goes green. (Side note: that ‘cha-ching’ sound you heard after qualifying was all of the place differential points McMurray will bank on Sunday). Overall, McMurray hasn’t been stellar at this track over his career, but a 17.8 average finish is sufficient. Additionally, in the last five Dover races, Jamie has came home 7th or better in three of them. In terms of practice speeds, the #1 Chevrolet was honestly one of the faster cars on Saturday, ending up inside the top 6 in both sessions in terms of fastest lap. McMurray also looked good on the ten-lap average charts, ranking in the top 5 in each. And with those speeds, we’d be talking about the #1 Chevrolet fighting for a top 5 if it McMurray qualified a little better. It’s going to be hard to fit Jamie Mac in your lineup because of his price, but I have him projected with a pretty high amount of FPTS this weekend, so he should be worth it.
Matt DiBenedetto ($5,000) – Luckily we got some major salary cap relief in the form of Matt DiBenedetto this weekend, as he’s not only the lowest price wise as he’s been since mid-July, but the #32 Ford also didn’t make a qualifying run on Friday so Matt will be credited with the 40th-place starting spot. Lately, DiBenedetto has been un-usable in DraftKings, mainly because of his good qualifying efforts, but that’s obviously not the case this weekend. Typically, the #32 Ford is good enough for a finish of right around 30th, and with DiBenedetto’s 40th-place starting spot, that’s going to equal somewhere around 24 FPTS–which is close to where I have him projected. The best part about DiBenedetto in DraftKings this weekend? The least amount of points he can get you is 4, as it’s impossible for him to lose any spots.
DraftKings Fades for the Apache Warrior 400
Denny Hamlin ($9,600) – Denny Hamlin might be an off-sequence pick in DraftKings for some people this weekend, but he won’t be a good one. The fact of the matter is that Dover and Hamlin aren’t a really great combination, as he has posted just three top 5 finishes in 23 career starts here. The good news for Hamlin fans is that he is currently on a three-race streak of top 10 finishes here at “The Monster Mile,” but the bad news this weekend is that he qualified 6th so he’s going to have to either pick up some dominator points or challenge for the win to become a viable option in DraftKings. During the practice sessions on Saturday, the #11 Toyota looked like a solid top 10 car, but as mentioned before, that’s not going to cut it in this game. For what it’s worth, Hamlin did have the 3rd-best ten-lap average in Happy Hour, but a long green flag run and a ten-lap run are two totally different things at this race track.
Dale Earnhardt, Jr. ($7,900) – Sorry, Junior Nation, but it’s going to take a lot for your driver to be a solid option in DraftKings this weekend. The good news is that the #88 Chevrolet looks to have legitimate speed for the first time in months this weekend. The bad news is that it has been rare for this #88 team to capitalize on any speed this season. Additionally, as I said before, the races here at Dover tend to go through many changes, and keeping up with those changes definitely isn’t a strength of Junior and his crew. For what it’s worth, I still have Earnhardt ranked inside the top 15 in my final Fantasy NASCAR rankings for Sunday’s Apache Warrior 400, but with any finish worse than 12th, it’s going to be hard for Junior to be on the top lineup. I’d consider him a lot more if he qualified 17th instead of 7th this weekend.
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($7,600) – Before the playoffs started, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. said that Dover was this team’s best chance, which was a bit surprising considering he has just one top 10 finish here in ten starts. With that being said, who am I to doubt the driver, considering he’s the one in the car? Still, I can say with almost certainty that Stenhouse is not going to win the race here on Sunday, and when you pair his 15th-place qualifying effort with his $7,600 salary this week, his limited chance of positive place differential points lands Ricky on the Fade list for this weekend. Even looking at the practice speeds, it’s hard to imagine the #17 Ford being much better than 15th on Sunday, as Stenhouse ranked 20th- and 12th-fastest in the two sessions on Saturday and 10th- and 21st-best in ten-lap average.
