Kansas Speedway is a 1.5-mile race track similar to Charlotte–where we raced at two weeks ago–and Chicagoland, which was the track where the 2017 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series playoffs kicked off. These tracks are called ‘cookie cutters’ for a reason: they’re all pretty similar, and we rarely see much differences in how the races play out at each. So, instead of looking solely at practice speeds and Kansas track history this weekend, be sure to take into account the other 1.5-mile tracks we’ve been at this year. This is looking to be another chalk race on Sunday, too, so that extra knowledge could pay off big time.
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DraftKings GPP Plays for the Hollywood Casino 400
Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,800) – This seems like a chalk pick this weekend, but at the same time, I’m expecting Martin Truex, Jr. to be lower-owned than normal for Sunday’s Hollywood Casino 400. The first reason for that line of thinking is that DraftKings bumped up his salary to $10,800, which is a full $500 more than the next-highest, Kyle Busch. The second reason that Truex may go under-owned is because of Kevin Harvick, who is a full $1,200 less in DraftKings and looked to have a much better car during the practice sessions on Saturday. Couple that in with the fact that Truex starts on the pole and can only get negative place differential points, and we’ll probably see a heavy pivot to Harvick on Sunday as opposed to everyone loading up on Truex. Now, with all that being said, the #78 Toyota is still my number one pick. Why? Because that’s what the numbers say, point blank. Truex is averaging a 3rd-place finish on 1.5-mile tracks this season and has led 107 laps per race on average at this track type. He’s also averaging 52.8 fastest laps on 1.5-mile tracks in 2017. Truex is the most recent race winner here at Kansas as well, and even though he didn’t show top 5 speed during the practices on Saturday, who’s to say that this #78 team wasn’t testing things? Truex is going for Stage wins and playoff points this weekend, and he’s going to put up plenty of DraftKings dominator points along the way.
Ryan Blaney ($8,500) – Chalk, chalk city. Ryan Blaney’s qualifying time on Friday, which was 3rd-fastest, was disallowed by NASCAR, and that means he’s going to start dead last (40th) here on Sunday. That also means that Blaney is going to be highly owned in every single contest. And while I can usually make a case for going against a chalk driver, pretty much the only way that taking Ryan Blaney won’t pay off on Sunday is if he wrecks. The #21 Ford has enough speed in it to compete for at least a top 10 finish this weekend, and Kansas is one of Blaney’s best tracks. I’ll have some lineups made without Ryan in them, but he’s still going to be in over 85% of them.
Daniel Suarez ($7,400) – In order to take down a GPP this weekend, you’re going to have to take one or two drivers that many other players overlook. Enter Daniel Suarez, who qualified 5th for Sunday’s Hollywood Casino 400. Now, with Truex and Harvick set to get the majority of dominator points on Sunday, I would typically not recommend playing anyone else who qualified inside the top 5, but Suarez is different: at only $7,400, it’s much easier to take a risk on a guy like him. Even though I do have him projected to move down a few spots and lose place differential FPTS, Suarez is still projected as a top 10 value play for Sunday, and it’s because of his price. Additionally, the #19 Toyota actually showed really good speed during the practice sessions on Saturday (top 5 speed actually) and Suarez seems really confident this weekend. I love the #19 as an aggressive GPP play this weekend.
A.J. Allmendinger ($6,400) – The speed of both JTG Daugherty Chevrolets were a bit of a surprise during qualifying here at Kansas on Saturday, but it’s something that is definitely worth noting. We won’t talk about Chris Buescher here–he qualified 20th and probably won’t finish better than that–but A.J. Allmendinger is a definite play this weekend, especially at his low price. In addition to being 17th-fastest in Happy Hour on Saturday, The Dinger has also been a top 20 threat in pretty much all races at 1.5-mile tracks this season. And since he’s starting from 26th on Sunday, a finish up there would be a nice little score out of A.J. Finally, what you have to like most about Allmendinger this weekend is that Kansas is one of his better tracks, and he has finished 14th or better in four of the last six races here. I don’t see him ending up that high this weekend, but a teens finish is within reach.
DraftKings GPP Fades for the Hollywood Casino 400
Brad Keselowski ($10,100) – Any time you hear that a team is in test mode, it generally means stay away for Fantasy NASCAR purposes. And that’s the case with Brad Keselowski and the #2 crew this weekend. This team is already locked into the next round of the playoffs, so they’re really racing for nothing here on Sunday. Of course, Keselowski could still earn playoff points with Stage win(s) or by winning the race, but something that like will only happen if he pulls off a gamble during the race, whether that be a fuel mileage play or some other strategy move. The main thing here is that the #2 Ford has been struggling on the 1.5-mile tracks lately, and it’s not going to suddenly turn around just because the team is testing out new things this weekend. And at $10,100 in DraftKings, Brad is just not worth the price. You won’t find the Blue Deuce in any of my lineups this weekend.
Kyle Larson ($9,800) – “What?” I’m assuming that’s exactly what’s going through your head right now. Well, let me explain. First and foremost, I’m going to have a healthy amount of Kyle Larson exposure on Sunday. With that being said, though, I think he’s going to over-owned in many contests, which is the reason for the fade. The #42 Chevrolet has shown great speed this weekend–especially in first practice–and Larson is going to start from back in 13th on Sunday, which gives him a very good chance of picking up double-digit place differential FPTS. Win, win, right? Well, let’s take a look at Larson’s statistics on 1.5-mile tracks this year and I’ll explain why I’m going to be underweight on Sunday: Larson has the 2nd-best average finish (7.8) at this track length in 2017, but his average number of fast laps per race (15.1) and laps led (2.4) are almost unbelievably low. Back here at Kansas in May, Larson started 9th and finished 6th with zero laps led and just five fastest laps. So, if you’re building a core roster this weekend around Truex, Harvick, and Blaney–which is what I recommend–there’s just not enough room for Larson, plus he’s probably going to disappoint in the end.
Ryan Newman ($7,600) – “The Rocketman” qualified 18th for Sunday’s Hollywood Casino 400, which gives him a decent possibility of moving up a few positions before it’s all said and done, and posting a pretty good score for the $7,600 salary. However, let’s look at Ryan Newman’s performance on the 1.5-mile tracks this season: his average finish is 26.5–which is 30th-best in the series–and he’s spent just 33.9% of the laps inside the top 15. Not very good. Now, obviously these numbers can be skewed a bit with wrecks and other kind of mechanical issues, but we’re talking about averages over the course of eight races. Newman has finished 12th or better in six of the last seven Kansas races, but I still feel confident fading him in the Hollywood Casino 400 on Sunday.
