These are my final thoughts and strategies to consider for Sunday afternoon’s Can-Am 500(k) at Phoenix International Raceway, as well as projected DraftKings FPTS for each driver. The chart below is explained but if you have any questions please don’t hesitate to contact me.
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- This weekend’s race is a relatively short one, with Sunday’s event only scheduled to be 312 miles in length. That means there will be 78 FPTS for laps led up for grabs and probably around 140 FPTS for fastest laps (depending on how many cautions there are).
- Phoenix International Raceway often turns into a “follow the leader” type of race. That means if a car that is at least pretty good on the long runs gets out front, he/she should stay there. Drivers with fast pit crews should have a bit of an advantage on Sunday.
- Phoenix was repaved and reconfigured in the middle of the 2012 season, so you can pretty much throw out any race data from before that fall 2012 race. You can probably disregard that race, too, as a lot of teams had no clue how to handle the “new” track.
- If you’re looking for a similar venue to study, the closest is Richmond. Essentially, Phoenix is set up as a backwards Richmond.
Projected FPTS at Phoenix 2
The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from five different ranking systems, using both mathematical equations as well as personal rankings. This chart also includes the average projected base + laps led DraftKings FPTS as well as the dollar per FPT. I don’t try to project fastest laps–that’s up to you. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.
| Driver | DraftKings Salary | Starting Position | Avg. Projected Finish | Proj Laps Led | Avg Proj Base + Laps Led FPTS | Dollar Per FPT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Busch | $11,100 | 8 | 02.4 | 75 | 67.2 | $165 |
| Denny Hamlin | $8,900 | 2 | 02.8 | 98 | 66.1 | $135 |
| Kevin Harvick | $10,000 | 6 | 02.4 | 63 | 62.2 | $161 |
| Brad Keselowski | $9,500 | 16 | 07.8 | 0 | 44.4 | $214 |
| Jimmie Johnson | $9,800 | 12 | 07.6 | 8 | 43.4 | $226 |
| Chase Elliott | $9,300 | 4 | 05.2 | 22 | 43.1 | $216 |
| Martin Truex Jr | $11,300 | 5 | 05.0 | 12 | 42.0 | $269 |
| Kyle Larson | $10,200 | 3 | 06.8 | 15 | 37.2 | $275 |
| Kurt Busch | $7,900 | 15 | 11.0 | 0 | 37.0 | $214 |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr | $8,000 | 14 | 11.4 | 0 | 35.2 | $227 |
| Matt Kenseth | $9,200 | 7 | 08.6 | 2 | 34.3 | $268 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | $7,200 | 27 | 19.2 | 0 | 32.6 | $221 |
| Ryan Blaney | $8,200 | 1 | 08.6 | 17 | 32.1 | $256 |
| Ryan Newman | $7,100 | 18 | 15.0 | 0 | 32.0 | $222 |
| Joey Logano | $9,100 | 9 | 10.6 | 0 | 31.8 | $286 |
| Kasey Kahne | $7,400 | 17 | 14.8 | 0 | 31.4 | $236 |
| Clint Bowyer | $8,700 | 20 | 16.8 | 0 | 30.4 | $286 |
| Austin Dillon | $7,700 | 21 | 17.8 | 0 | 29.4 | $262 |
| Daniel Suarez | $7,500 | 10 | 12.4 | 0 | 29.2 | $257 |
| Erik Jones | $8,300 | 11 | 13.0 | 0 | 29.0 | $286 |
| Aric Almirola | $6,100 | 22 | 19.6 | 0 | 26.8 | $228 |
| Jamie McMurray | $8,500 | 13 | 15.4 | 0 | 26.2 | $324 |
| Ty Dillon | $6,900 | 29 | 23.8 | 0 | 25.4 | $272 |
| Trevor Bayne | $6,700 | 25 | 23.6 | 0 | 21.8 | $307 |
| Landon Cassill | $5,700 | 32 | 27.8 | 0 | 20.4 | $279 |
| Chris Buescher | $6,600 | 31 | 27.6 | 0 | 19.8 | $333 |
| AJ Allmendinger | $6,400 | 23 | 23.6 | 0 | 19.8 | $323 |
| Danica Patrick | $6,300 | 24 | 24.2 | 0 | 19.6 | $321 |
| Paul Menard | $6,500 | 19 | 22.2 | 0 | 18.6 | $349 |
| David Ragan | $6,000 | 26 | 25.8 | 0 | 18.4 | $326 |
| Michael McDowell | $5,800 | 28 | 28.8 | 0 | 14.4 | $403 |
| Corey Lajoie | $5,400 | 33 | 32.4 | 0 | 12.2 | $443 |
| Derrike Cope | $5,000 | 40 | 36.2 | 0 | 11.6 | $431 |
| Jeffrey Earnhardt | $4,700 | 38 | 35.2 | 0 | 11.6 | $405 |
| Cole Whitt | $5,300 | 34 | 33.4 | 0 | 11.2 | $473 |
| D.J. Kennington | $4,600 | 37 | 35.8 | 0 | 09.4 | $489 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | $5,500 | 30 | 32.6 | 0 | 08.8 | $625 |
| Kyle Weatherman | $4,500 | 39 | 37.6 | 0 | 07.8 | $577 |
| Joey Gase | $4,900 | 35 | 36.0 | 0 | 07.0 | $700 |
